I'm canceling my return go Garibaldi this weekend to save the gas money for the tuna that should be here in a week or two. Bring it on
Coldest PDO since 1955. Good for salmon/bad for tuna?
- Thread starter SilverFly
- Start date
Anecdotally, I never found much of a correlation between cold/warm PDO's and when the first sport caught albacore hit the docks.
For what it's worth, when we first started chasing tuna off NorCal/SoOre in the late 90's. At that time, we usually started encountering them with regularity in early to mid August. That gradually shifted to early July (even earlier) over the course of several years. At the same time, albacore off SF Bay and Monterey became increasingly more scarce. I worked a summer on a small commercial salmon boat out of Santa Cruz when I was in high school in 1974. We used to head west when the salmon fishing was slow and on several occasions, found albacore. There was a tremendous live bait sport fishery for them out of Morro Bay during that period as well. Sport boats used to come up from San Diego and fish for a few months. That fishery no longer exists.
Aside from migration patterns, the biggest change has been the technology (navigation, weather forecasting, satellite aids) and way more bigger badder sport boats.
Lots of boats are out looking today out of Newport - there should be some reports coming in later this evening.
For what it's worth, when we first started chasing tuna off NorCal/SoOre in the late 90's. At that time, we usually started encountering them with regularity in early to mid August. That gradually shifted to early July (even earlier) over the course of several years. At the same time, albacore off SF Bay and Monterey became increasingly more scarce. I worked a summer on a small commercial salmon boat out of Santa Cruz when I was in high school in 1974. We used to head west when the salmon fishing was slow and on several occasions, found albacore. There was a tremendous live bait sport fishery for them out of Morro Bay during that period as well. Sport boats used to come up from San Diego and fish for a few months. That fishery no longer exists.
Aside from migration patterns, the biggest change has been the technology (navigation, weather forecasting, satellite aids) and way more bigger badder sport boats.
Lots of boats are out looking today out of Newport - there should be some reports coming in later this evening.
Plenty of upwelling off N Cali.
www.livescience.com
It's raining anchovies in San Francisco
Experts blame the fishy storm on a recent spawning event.
www.livescience.com
I wonder if you could do well with a smelt net?Plenty of upwelling off N Cali.
It's raining anchovies in San Francisco
Experts blame the fishy storm on a recent spawning event.
Hmm, wonder how long a limit would take with a 700gr line, 12wt, and a decent anchovy imitation.
I've been following that chinook fishing out of San Fran. They have had an incredible season. The quality of fishing they've been posting is just unbelievable.
Salmon season out here has been open for a week now, and the chinook fishing especially is already out of this world. We've averaged about an hour to an hour and half to catch boat limits of chinook for our boats the last few days. Not sure I've ever seen better chinook fishing. Coho are showing up more and more as well.
Today I bottom fished but saw salmon jumping, swirling, and finning pretty much everywhere I went. It's definitely time to throw an 8 wt on the boat
Salmon season out here has been open for a week now, and the chinook fishing especially is already out of this world. We've averaged about an hour to an hour and half to catch boat limits of chinook for our boats the last few days. Not sure I've ever seen better chinook fishing. Coho are showing up more and more as well.
Today I bottom fished but saw salmon jumping, swirling, and finning pretty much everywhere I went. It's definitely time to throw an 8 wt on the boat
Very odd observation from the beach North of Seaside yesterday. I fully expected the water to be on the chilly side but it felt like bathwater. Wife commented it felt like the Bahamas or Hawaii. Not sure how that ties in with PDO and upwelling but I've never felt the surf that warm.
Crazy thought here Nick. Hypothetically, if you took a crew of appropriately equipped fly fishers, what are the chances they could pull off the nookie version of "plugging the boat" (limits) as we've done with tuners? Bet that would raise some eyebrows.
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I put beach caught coho in that thing…. and have not cleaned it since last season.
If I bring it on the boat, we all might end up puking.
I saw Chali 2na yesterday!
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Give me a call if you make this happen, I want to be in on this.
They are getting them a little farther south as well. Here’s my plumber with two caught Out of Santa Cruz.
Wish I could Al. Would be stoked just to see it done though.
MJO/ENSO Forecast
Large Kelvin Wave Starting to Erupt Near Galapagos
Cool Water Losing Coverage - Models Suggesting Another La Nina Surge in Fall
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading fast. A massive pool of warm water is building subsurface pushing well east. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. This is a lagging indicator. La Nina conditions are projected building in Nino3.4 slightly in Fall then fading in Winter. But overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.
MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
Large Kelvin Wave Starting to Erupt Near Galapagos
Cool Water Losing Coverage - Models Suggesting Another La Nina Surge in Fall
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading fast. A massive pool of warm water is building subsurface pushing well east. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. This is a lagging indicator. La Nina conditions are projected building in Nino3.4 slightly in Fall then fading in Winter. But overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.
MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
Surfing friend of mine, Mark Sponsler, started the Stormsurf web site decades back, the go to for predicting swell generation. Mark used to work for NASA in Florida before moving west to run a vast corp IT system and get better surf. And being an avid skier also run snows projections as well. His web site has a tanker load of info for anyone interesd in all things weather producing in the Pacific. For those interested in a deep dive:
Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)
www.stormsurf.com
It’s a great web sight, I’ve enjoyed it for years.
Marks commercial boat left the dock Saturday. Today it caught tuna. Won't be long.
But honestly, salmon fishing is so amazing right now I won't be disappointed to keep at this for a bit longer.
Can't even describe how good the salmon fishing is right now
But honestly, salmon fishing is so amazing right now I won't be disappointed to keep at this for a bit longer.
Can't even describe how good the salmon fishing is right now
Doable? Absolutely.
The only issue is the timing. Realistically it would need to be when the fish are in on the beach, and predicting that is impossible. Right now the chinook fishing is better than I've ever seen it, but we are getting them in 300 plus feet of water, 200-280' on the wire
