Coldest PDO since 1955. Good for salmon/bad for tuna?

[SilverFly]

We're currently in the coldest Pacific Decadal Oscillation since 1955. Per NOAA, cool phase PDO means colder nearshore (relative term) in the NE Pacific. This is largely responsible for the cold/wet spring we're still having and presumably better ocean conditions for salmon, steelhead and other cool water species. Maybe not such great news for upcoming albacore season since it also leads to more upwelling. As we saw last summer there was green water (food) much further offshore than usual, and in spite of plenty of tuna, not many players. Hoping for the best, but I'm preparing myself for another tough season.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in the Pacific Basin and the North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value (Courtesy of Mantua, 1999).

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is the Coldest Since 1955

www.forecastwatch.com

 

[wanderingrichard]

So, if this holds true anecdotally, the guys going for albies will need to go further offshore?

 

[Cabezon]

Geez, @SilverFly, you had to say it... I've been having similar thoughts. BUT, BUT, BUT. If you actually look at the graph (and the tabular data that underly the graph), the PDO index has been largely negative (albeit, not as negative as currently), since about 2019. We have had some banner tuna years, especially the amazing 2020, even with solidly negative (blue) values. The Blob years (2014-2016) match the small red spike at the right end of the graph (largely positive monthly PDO values). As we all remarked, last year's water conditions were atypical - clear green with diving alcids like rhinoceros auklets far offshore where we were fishing. And even the commercial boats weren't finding schools of tuna offshore; they were striking out in the same green water that we were fishing. Last summer, there did not seem to be as sharp a break between the coastal upwelling water (cold, high nutrients, very green = high phytoplankton levels, great salmon water) and the usual late summer offshore waters (warm, low nutrients, clear blue = low phytoplankton levels, great tuna water).
The current Tuna fishers map show lots of cold water off the Oregon and Northern California coast, with overall offshore flow (=upwelling). Not much is happening off the Washington coast (not too unusual as Washington's upwelling is more a summer phenomenon (though it is summer...). If there are any tuna finning their way north from Southern California, they better be wearing parkas... There is intense upwelling along the Northern California coast with the only warmish water (mid-60's) in the Santa Barbara Bight through San Diego.
But we have two months for this to turn around. I still like the timing of our trips, in the last third of the typical season but before the onset of the fall storms.
Steve

 

[Evan B]

I'm becoming less optimistic about a banner tuna year My boat is ready, but I won't be burning the fuel unless there's a good break within 50mi of any of my ports I can get to.

 

[SilverFly]

So, if this holds true anecdotally, the guys going for albies will need to go further offshore?

It would seem so but apparently running much further out wasn't (usually) the answer last year (paging @Nick Clayton).

Geez, @SilverFly, you had to say it... I've been having similar thoughts. BUT, BUT, BUT. If you actually look at the graph (and the tabular data that underly the graph), the PDO index has been largely negative (albeit, not as negative as currently), since about 2019. We have had some banner tuna years, especially the amazing 2020, even with solidly negative (blue) values. The Blob years (2014-2016) match the small red spike at the right end of the graph (largely positive monthly PDO values). As we all remarked, last year's water conditions were atypical - clear green with diving alcids like rhinoceros auklets far offshore where we were fishing. And even the commercial boats weren't finding schools of tuna offshore; they were striking out in the same green water that we were fishing. Last summer, there did not seem to be as sharp a break between the coastal upwelling water (cold, high nutrients, very green = high phytoplankton levels, great salmon water) and the usual late summer offshore waters (warm, low nutrients, clear blue = low phytoplankton levels, great tuna water).
The current Tuna fishers map show lots of cold water off the Oregon and Northern California coast, with overall offshore flow (=upwelling). Not much is happening off the Washington coast (not too unusual as Washington's upwelling is more a summer phenomenon (though it is summer...). If there are any tuna finning their way north from Southern California, they better be wearing parkas... There is intense upwelling along the Northern California coast with the only warmish water (mid-60's) in the Santa Barbara Bight through San Diego.
But we have two months for this to turn around. I still like the timing of our trips, in the last third of the typical season but before the onset of the fall storms.
Steve

Effing Ekman Transport! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ekman_transport

 

[Nick Clayton]

Warm, clear blue water was available and within range almost all of last years tuna season. The problem was, the fish weren't in it until you got waaaaayyyyy offshore. As in further than anyone but the bigger commercial boats could go.

What fish were around were hanging in that clean green water we fished so much, and we all saw what that did to their behavior.

I find trying to predict a tuna season to be an exercise in futility, so I don't even try.

What I will say in regards to last season was that from the start of season in March till the end of my season in October, things were just "weird" in the ocean. It wasn't just tuna fishing that was off. Bottomfishing was strange. I was seeing things I've never seen out there before, such as salmon sharks friggen everywhere. Lingcod fishing started off great then absolutely died in May and June. It was like the lingcod just vanished. Salmon season was phenomenal even when it opened mid June. Tuna fishing was bizarre. Just seemed like everything was topsy-turvy.

I can't explain the cause of any of that stuff, but IMO 2021 was just odd all the way around. I have no idea what 2022 will bring in the way of albacore, but what I can say is thus far everything I've seen on the ocean has been completley and utterly normal. I cant help but feel like that's a good thing.

I've read and been told numerous theories about what this summer's albacore season will bring, but I just don't fret over it. Nobody I know down here is at all concerned either. We'll see what we get when it gets here. Until then I'll continue to enjoy solid, normal bottomfishing, and am looking forward to seeing what's out there salmon wise on Saturday when area 1 opens up.

 

[Cabezon]

@SilverFly and I are engaging in the tuna-fishing equivalent of the "hot-stove" league. Lots of speculation by the barely qualified about events that are going to happen however they are going to happen. Who knows? Maybe I'll get that putative yellowfin to stay pinned this year!!!
Steve

 

[SilverFly]

@SilverFly and I are engaging in the tuna-fishing equivalent of the "hot-stove" league. Lots of speculation by the barely qualified about events that are going to happen however they are going to happen. Who knows? Maybe I'll get that putative yellowfin to stay pinned this year!!!
Steve

Hooking some Hamachi under a kelp patty fits the bill. Not sure what else would be hanging out there that would have any heft to it. BUT, that's the bittersweet-you'll-never-know-feeling that comes with membership in the offshore mystery fish club!

 

[Nick Clayton]

Hooking some Hamachi under a kelp patty fits the bill. Not sure what else would be hanging out there that would have any heft to it. BUT, that's the bittersweet-you'll-never-know-feeling that comes with membership in the offshore mystery fish club!

I've thought about that fish all winter. Replayed that scenario through my head a thousand times. Had several in depth conversations with Mark and others. I am absolutely convinced it was indeed a yellowtail.

It was definitely not a mackerel. There were some there but that fish cleared all the loose line and got onto the reel insanely quick. No way a mackerel does that to a 12 wt. The head shakes I saw were very un albacore like, and the way it ran straight back to the kelp paddy, but not going down at all. I can see it clear as day right now.

I'll never forget talking to Mark on the radio on the way in and him describing the tell tale signs of a YT when hooked. Every single thing he listed off was verbatim what that fish did.

Of course such mysteries are just a part of the wonder of fishing offshore. Sure would have been cool if Steve brought a fly caught YT to the boat that day! I've never heard of that happening in WA. Maybe this year!

 

[SilverFly]

I've thought about that fish all winter. Replayed that scenario through my head a thousand times. Had several in depth conversations with Mark and others. I am absolutely convinced it was indeed a yellowtail.

It was definitely not a mackerel. There were some there but that fish cleared all the loose line and got onto the reel insanely quick. No way a mackerel does that to a 12 wt. The head shakes I saw were very un albacore like, and the way it ran straight back to the kelp paddy, but not going down at all. I can see it clear as day right now.

I'll never forget talking to Mark on the radio on the way in and him describing the tell tale signs of a YT when hooked. Every single thing he listed off was verbatim what that fish did.

Of course such mysteries are just a part of the wonder of fishing offshore. Sure would have been cool if Steve brought a fly caught YT to the boat that day! I've never heard of that happening in WA. Maybe this year!

Fly rod YT would be a first in WA/OR to my knowledge. Pretty sure I saw a pair of smaller, 6-8 ish pounders swim close by the boat in 2020. Shape was right, deeply forked tails, too big for mackerel, and definitely not albacore.

 

[Rob Allen]

I can't see how cooler water is bad for salmon and steelhead, just hope the trend lasts long enough to get numbers back up before it cycles the other way again. Because it seems like the long term trend is still downwards. The good cycles just aren't good enough to keep up with the bad ones.

 

[wanderingrichard]

Rob,
It's not the salmon and steelhead, its the Albies and other warmer water fish that get impacted by this. But, wow! Salmon Sharks this far south ??

 

[Nick Clayton]

Rob,
It's not the salmon and steelhead, its the Albies and other warmer water fish that get impacted by this. But, wow! Salmon Sharks this far south ??

Salmon sharks aren't completely out of the norm in our waters in general. Prior to last year I had seen a couple over the years and usually heard of a couple being sighted most years.

But last year they were being spotted literally every day. I'd wager a guess I put eyes on one at least 70 times last year. They were damn near a nuisance at times while fishing. A rather large one bit one of our lingcod in half right at the boat and harassed several other fish. Another large one was hanging around one of our go to rockfish areas and taking rockfish off lines on a regular basis. At one point it came up and grabbed two rockfish right as one of our deckhands were reaching to pull them out of the water. Scary stuff. There was times I was constantly on edge each time I reached for a rockfish.

I have no idea what accounted for the sudden explosion in their population out here last year, but it was a very sudden and drastic jump in sightings by myself and just about everyone I know down here.

For the record I haven't seen one this season.

 

[SilverFly]

Geez, @SilverFly, you had to say it... I've been having similar thoughts. BUT, BUT, BUT. If you actually look at the graph (and the tabular data that underly the graph), the PDO index has been largely negative (albeit, not as negative as currently), since about 2019. We have had some banner tuna years, especially the amazing 2020, even with solidly negative (blue) values. The Blob years (2014-2016) match the small red spike at the right end of the graph (largely positive monthly PDO values). As we all remarked, last year's water conditions were atypical - clear green with diving alcids like rhinoceros auklets far offshore where we were fishing. And even the commercial boats weren't finding schools of tuna offshore; they were striking out in the same green water that we were fishing. Last summer, there did not seem to be as sharp a break between the coastal upwelling water (cold, high nutrients, very green = high phytoplankton levels, great salmon water) and the usual late summer offshore waters (warm, low nutrients, clear blue = low phytoplankton levels, great tuna water).
The current Tuna fishers map show lots of cold water off the Oregon and Northern California coast, with overall offshore flow (=upwelling). Not much is happening off the Washington coast (not too unusual as Washington's upwelling is more a summer phenomenon (though it is summer...). If there are any tuna finning their way north from Southern California, they better be wearing parkas... There is intense upwelling along the Northern California coast with the only warmish water (mid-60's) in the Santa Barbara Bight through San Diego.
But we have two months for this to turn around. I still like the timing of our trips, in the last third of the typical season but before the onset of the fall storms.
Steve

Definitely a lot of upwelling from Southern OR south to Santa Barbara. Overall, the cold nearshore pattern looks exaggerated - but otherwise normal to what I've seen. The tuna highway is starting to form, if weak. I'm not worried yet. Albacore usually have to "swing wide" around Central/North CA, and Southern OR. Fingers crossed!

 

[jasmillo]

With two trips on the books, I hope we’ll have a fantastic tuna year.

That said, I’ll bother myself with data that might help me determine if I should chase trout, bass or salmon any given day this summer and not be worrying about tuna. When my tuna trips come around, I’ll be happy with what they end up being. I don’t get out on the open ocean much, so for me, even if it ends ups being a long boat ride to some place I’ve never seen before, with no…or minimal fish, I’ll enjoy the experience regardless!

I’ll let you tuna nerds do the predicting. Which by the way I love reading, but won’t be engaging in myself .

 

[DimeBrite]

Good for salmon

 

[SilverFly]

With two trips on the books, I hope we’ll have a fantastic tuna year.

That said, I’ll bother myself with data that might help me determine if I should chase trout, bass or salmon any given day this summer and not be worrying about tuna. When my tuna trips come around, I’ll be happy with what they end up being. I don’t get out on the open ocean much, so for me, even if it ends ups being a long boat ride to some place I’ve never seen before, with no…or minimal fish, I’ll enjoy the experience regardless!

I’ll let you tuna nerds do the predicting. Which by the way I love reading, but won’t be engaging in myself .

That's the best attitude to have. The investment and build-up with these trips makes it easy to lose sight of the adventure factor. Going offshore is always an adventure. Thanks for the reminder.

 

[SilverFly]

Warmer water appears to be building in from the SW along the usual "tuna highway" lines, if slower than most years. Easier to see here on the NOAA chart:



Better SST resolution on the NANOOS Tuna fishers site:



As for upwelling there's plenty of that, but still early, but check out the plume of plankton growth the Columbia is pumping out!

 

[Nick Clayton]

Not that it means anything really, but sport caught tuna were caught out of Charleston a few days ago, and we are getting commercial reports of seriously impressive numbers being caught. My guess is we'll see Charlie in less than 2 weeks.

 

[SilverFly]

Not that it means anything really, but sport caught tuna were caught out of Charleston a few days ago, and we are getting commercial reports of seriously impressive numbers being caught. My guess is we'll see Charlie in less than 2 weeks.

Get some rest now while you still can.