Super El Nino

So much El Nino hand wringing is about winter totals. However, what matters most (beyond snow sports) is end-of-season snowpack, which depends heavily on what happens in March and April. Do we get a late snowstorm or early heatwave? That level of detail is hard to predict, regardless of whether it falls within or beyond the historic range of variability.

Most western PNW reservoirs maintain fairly low levels through the winter to provide a buffer against late-season flooding, and refill primarily in April and May. I don’t understand why Cliff is saying that storms now are good for refilling reservoirs. Maybe it’s for the interior PNW?
 
skyriver said:
"I noted in earlier blogs that extreme El Nino years often enjoy good water resources in the Northwest. "

So regular El Nino means warmer winter than usual so crappy snow pack. This usually equates to low water years. Are we saying that extreme El Nino gives us more water, including more snow pack? Or just a lot of rain water? I'm so confused.

"If you're lookin' for a prophet, I'll tell ya I ain't
But I know when it's gonna rain."
Click to expand...
CM has shown some bias toward looking at reservoir storage rather than the combination of factors that go into the hydrology that ultimately determines streamflows.
 
Matt B said:
CM has shown some bias
Click to expand...
Your own...personal...weather...
Someone to tell you why, someone that tries...
Your own...personal...forecast...
Reach out 10 days...

Weather, like birds, isn't real.
 

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One of the 1st El Nino's talked about in any length that I remember was back in 1984/85. The science was in it's infancy. Was a strange fall coming into winter. Really dry, mild, low river levels that continued all winter into spring. Like what we are having now, barring a blowout. I love low water Steelhead. Turned out to be one of the best winter steelhead returns coast wide in 20 yrs. I caught/kept/released over 100 Steelhead just out of my local lower Puyallup R. spots. 5th ST, HI HO, Palmers Piling, Howards drive in.. where Toyota Puyallup is now, Rowels furnature store/Iron Gate, weigh station. I never had to travel upriver because it was so good. The Puget Power flume on the the White river Tapps power plant failed and was shut down and could not release water out of Lk. Tapps. Created lowest lower Puyallup water conditions, below the Stuck R. ever. I was in college at UPS, living at home, had class twice a week and fished every chance I got 10 min from my house. I wish I knew how to spey swing a fly back then. It would have been $$$. The numbers present were over the top. Back then it was on baitcaster shit. The next fall, I remember the adult coho returned way less numbers to So. Puget Sound and were skinny like starved. Wonder how this "Super El Nino" will turn out?
 
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The 3-month (i.e., seasonal) RONI for Aug-Sept-Oct is now at +2.0°, just shy of the +2.1° in 1997. Time will tell if it will exceed the +2.9°C peak from 1982. Until then, and despite the overwhelming hyperbole and clickbait posts, it is NOT yet an all-time record.

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