Super El Nino

[SSPey]

So much El Nino hand wringing is about winter totals. However, what matters most (beyond snow sports) is end-of-season snowpack, which depends heavily on what happens in March and April. Do we get a late snowstorm or early heatwave? That level of detail is hard to predict, regardless of whether it falls within or beyond the historic range of variability.

Most western PNW reservoirs maintain fairly low levels through the winter to provide a buffer against late-season flooding, and refill primarily in April and May. I don’t understand why Cliff is saying that storms now are good for refilling reservoirs. Maybe it’s for the interior PNW?

 

[Matt B]

"I noted in earlier blogs that extreme El Nino years often enjoy good water resources in the Northwest. "

So regular El Nino means warmer winter than usual so crappy snow pack. This usually equates to low water years. Are we saying that extreme El Nino gives us more water, including more snow pack? Or just a lot of rain water? I'm so confused.

"If you're lookin' for a prophet, I'll tell ya I ain't
But I know when it's gonna rain."

CM has shown some bias toward looking at reservoir storage rather than the combination of factors that go into the hydrology that ultimately determines streamflows.