Using Boise as my preferred index for this market.
$700K gets you a ~1500sf house in a desirable neighborhood on the periphery of the town. 1.1 million gets you a 3/2 with an ADU near downtown. 1.2 million $ gets you a nice 2500sf house on a 0.25 acre lot closer to the center of the city.
My completely arbitrary and intuitive value-meter says that based on those price levels Boise real-estate is at least 40% overvalued, but there's no telling how long policy-makers in places like California, Portland, and Seattle will continue to bless sellers in markets like Boise with a transfer of wealth from home-equity-laden refugees looking for a different social/policy environment.
(IMLS) Sold: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1631 sq. ft. house located at 3199 N 24th Way, Boise, ID 83702 sold on Aug 25, 2022 after being listed at $705,000. MLS# 98847311. Nature beckons just beyond the backyard! A ...
www.redfin.com
(IMLS) For Sale: 4 beds, 3 baths ∙ 2437 sq. ft. ∙ 1712 N 19th St, Boise, ID 83702 ∙ $1,198,000 ∙ MLS# 98851968 ∙ One of the few remaining large North End estates, this 3½ city lot homesite includes...
www.redfin.com
I don't understand the thought that Seattle or Portland policy makers are somehow the driving force behind people moving for social reasons. It seems to discount the basic population and economic data that is easily found. I understand that there are actual people who are leaving those Seattle because of theft and homelessness etc. To blame Boise's home prices on Seattle's local policy seems more emotional than logical. Consider a different perspective:
From 2021-2022 Seattle's population increased by 2.7%. King County's (more rural) increased by less than .5%. The majority of these people immigrated to Seattle (rather than births). They are by and large educated and excellent earners. At the same time King County residents receive 62 cents back for every dollar sent to Olympia. that is an average of $1,400.00 sent to each person in WA from King County. The state as a whole uses King County as a piggy bank. So in order to fund their own schools and deal with their own challenges that come with being urban and growing, they have to tax themselves at an uber- high rate. This tends to price out retired people. When your tax bill is larger than my mortgage, it becomes a problem for people on fixed incomes. There is also a clear nexus between living costs and homelessness. It is one of the reasons for it.
Further, due to the population pressure that growing at that rate brings, home prices have skyrocketted. The median home cost is somewhere around $900,000 in 2021. That gives a person who is retired, does not want to pay the taxes Seattle requires, and does not care for the change (older people) a lot of buying power in places like Boise or Spokane or even Bellingham.
My contention is that it isn't any social policy that is the leading cause of the Exodus (expressed and a 2.7 % increase
) from Seattle. It is pure market force economics. We are discussing long time residents that are looking to move because they are funding the rest of the state and because of the elevated costs of living due to rapid growth. The influx of High earners are giving them the chance to move to most places because property values have consistently been increasing faster than most other places.
Oddly, the net migration from Boise to Seattle from 2015-2019 was 309 TO SEATTLE! That means that 309 more people moved to Seattle from Boise than from Seattle to Boise in that timeframe (from census data). The people who move to Idaho are logically going to be politically more conservative or they would have moved to Eugene or Bellingham (with 3,000+ of their friends). You are selecting for the actual people who will bad mouth Seattle politics/ culture the most. We all tend to prefer living with like minded people.
I am sure that you have met plenty of people who have left Seattle for Boise. Like a an ex-husband complaining about their ex-wife, they are going to tell you about what they hated. The fact is though, the numbers say that the ex-wife is getting a lot more dates. Seattle isn't seeing it's population leave due to these things. In fact, it's increasing, even from people from Boise.
Spokane is getting more Seattleites than Vise versa. The financial irony of that is as rich as cheesecake.
