NFR How's the housing market where you live?
- Thread starter swimmy
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Non-fishing related
Have owned multiple rentals, one our former home in an upscale neighborhood with HOA. The annual return on it was excellent for several years. And then the property management company I hired (had moved 60 miles away) rented it to a family that met all the financial requirements, lied about the size of the family.
After the family moved out a year later I drove to the property to meet the rental agent for the post-occupancy walk through, and found padlock hasps installed on sold wood 6 panel doors and frames, and a plywood wall and door had been built to sub-divide a family room in half, nailing studs to the carpeted floors and into the cofferred ceiling. When I asked the rental agent show me copies of the quarterly site inspections per the management agreement, she had never performed them. "Call your boss and tell him to get over here now."
Friend of mine has multiple Bend rentals, he lost over 100K in rent during the pandemic due to the state non-eviction mandate, while he had to continue makin mortgage and tax payments.. One of the tenants that had quit paying rent moved out after they bought a house.
REIT's don't deal with property management, just all numbers to them.
Mom and Pop rental investments? Numbers are only half of it.
After the family moved out a year later I drove to the property to meet the rental agent for the post-occupancy walk through, and found padlock hasps installed on sold wood 6 panel doors and frames, and a plywood wall and door had been built to sub-divide a family room in half, nailing studs to the carpeted floors and into the cofferred ceiling. When I asked the rental agent show me copies of the quarterly site inspections per the management agreement, she had never performed them. "Call your boss and tell him to get over here now."
Friend of mine has multiple Bend rentals, he lost over 100K in rent during the pandemic due to the state non-eviction mandate, while he had to continue makin mortgage and tax payments.. One of the tenants that had quit paying rent moved out after they bought a house.
REIT's don't deal with property management, just all numbers to them.
Mom and Pop rental investments? Numbers are only half of it.
Lots of folks out here buy raw land and an RV...
I know several folks who did it that way, with anywhere from a 3-10 year purchase to completed home window, depending on their finances.
Trucking their water in to start, and the first thing they do is build a septic system, then drill a well.
Many build a shop with a loft, or put up a pole building to park the RV in. Helps with the claustrophobic nature of close quarter living.
Its a lot of work when you already have a job, but they do it.
I know several folks who did it that way, with anywhere from a 3-10 year purchase to completed home window, depending on their finances.
Trucking their water in to start, and the first thing they do is build a septic system, then drill a well.
Many build a shop with a loft, or put up a pole building to park the RV in. Helps with the claustrophobic nature of close quarter living.
Its a lot of work when you already have a job, but they do it.
Dustin Chromers
Legend
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All the rent moratoriums did during COVID was run small operators out and consolidate the real estate rental market into the big bank types. Lots of that going on these days in other avenues. I would be very reluctant to get into the rental game in Washington state. At any given time some vote pandering politician can simply decide the private deal you made is null and void. And forget evicting a bad renter, impossible. Now a trailer park, different story. I suppose your could always tow a bad renter or a no pay.
All the rent moratoriums did during COVID was run small operators out and consolidate the real estate rental market into the big bank types. Lots of that going on these days in other avenues. I would be very reluctant to get into the rental game in Washington state. At any given time some vote pandering politician can simply decide the private deal you made is null and void. And forget evicting a bad renter, impossible. Now a trailer park, different story. I suppose your could always tow a bad renter or a no pay.
A
Anonymous member 148
Guest
This, my parents sold off their rentals the last few years when there were more punishments for being a landlord then a tenant. Also paying for cancer is expensive. The tenants got evicted, due to the sale, that's the only way rent could be raised for the new owners, when they could of stayed had laws been more fair.
Seattle just went through a big upzone in multiple neighborhoods under Hala for the purpose of adding affordable housing. Wasnt a panacea, but a good example.
Dont disagree with the power of zoning to create smarter, more useful and equitable cities. Place populations near transit, aggregate resources and infrastructure, ecodistrcits... fully get all that... but that's usually not the discussion. Most really don't care beyond their own 4 walls.
As such it devolves to a discussion based solely upon single family homes. Just a very small piece of it all but a piece almost all can identify with... either having one or wanting one... this thread...
And there in lies the problem...culture... social pressure, the dream of the American home... and absolute need to have individual transport at whim. (Single occ vehichles)
We can wonk out on solutions of density and efficiency, but folks dont really dig it. They try though.
As the round of last urban flight illustrated, we (as a society) like the city a lot more (or at least tell our selves we do) when we have to live in it.
Not sure what the answer is... but zoning is a small piece of it all...a very slow moving piece...
Dont disagree with the power of zoning to create smarter, more useful and equitable cities. Place populations near transit, aggregate resources and infrastructure, ecodistrcits... fully get all that... but that's usually not the discussion. Most really don't care beyond their own 4 walls.
As such it devolves to a discussion based solely upon single family homes. Just a very small piece of it all but a piece almost all can identify with... either having one or wanting one... this thread...
And there in lies the problem...culture... social pressure, the dream of the American home... and absolute need to have individual transport at whim. (Single occ vehichles)
We can wonk out on solutions of density and efficiency, but folks dont really dig it. They try though.
As the round of last urban flight illustrated, we (as a society) like the city a lot more (or at least tell our selves we do) when we have to live in it.
Not sure what the answer is... but zoning is a small piece of it all...a very slow moving piece...
Coach Potter
Life of the Party
It's not just corporations. Companies like VRBO and Air BnB didn't exist 15 years ago. There is an entire industry that was built around people owning multiple single family homes and renting them as vacation places. Until recently the "rental" game was completely different.
Front page article on Bloomberg this morning:
Landlords Ready War Chests to Buy in Cooling US Housing Market
And regarding Real Estate Investment Trusts:
"In total, REITs of all types collectively own more than $3.5 trillion in gross assets across the U.S., with public REITs owning approximately $2.5 trillion in assets, representing more than 500,000 properties."
Very good article on REIT's in general:
seekingalpha.com
Where rents are spiking, REIT's will follow for max ROI
Landlords Ready War Chests to Buy in Cooling US Housing Market
And regarding Real Estate Investment Trusts:
"In total, REITs of all types collectively own more than $3.5 trillion in gross assets across the U.S., with public REITs owning approximately $2.5 trillion in assets, representing more than 500,000 properties."
Very good article on REIT's in general:
Single-Family Rental REITs: Meet Your New Landlord
SFR REITs appear attractively valued given their growth trajectory and exhibit appealing risk profiles. Here are our top stock picks in this category.
seekingalpha.com
Where rents are spiking, REIT's will follow for max ROI
cedarslug
Steelhead
Front page article on Bloomberg this morning:
Landlords Ready War Chests to Buy in Cooling US Housing Market
And regarding Real Estate Investment Trusts:
"In total, REITs of all types collectively own more than $3.5 trillion in gross assets across the U.S., with public REITs owning approximately $2.5 trillion in assets, representing more than 500,000 properties."
Very good article on REIT's in general:
Single-Family Rental REITs: Meet Your New Landlord
SFR REITs appear attractively valued given their growth trajectory and exhibit appealing risk profiles. Here are our top stock picks in this category.
Where rents are spiking, REIT's will follow for max ROI
View attachment 18202
From the Bloomberg article:
Wage increases?!? I don't believe wage increases have been enough to cover the 12% rent increase by Invitation Homes.
Also, "But the average tenant spent about 18% of their household income on rent, lower than the company’s historical average." That doesn't tell us anything about how much Invitation Homes have been charging historically or their tenants. Their historical average could be 30% of household income, or that they have an influx of tenants with higher income than previous years, or they are primarily leasing out property in recent gentrified areas. Here's their current listing: https://lease.invitationhomes.com/search
All such studies a tub full of individual data points blended together for a mean average, and there are always the outriders of actual local conditions. Wages have definitely jumped in many areas, however. Here in Sunriver the average housekeeper is now making over $25 an hour with signing and rention bonus's. Overall US unemployent remains low and job growth high. We've had a record run-up in RE and stock market prices conciurrent with the lowest interest rates in decades, two plus years of Covid dramatically interrupting our supply chain, and now a war jacking grain and oil prices. The Fed is trying to steer guide an inflationary mess into a soft landing with the only tool it has, interest rates. Good luck with that.
wanderingrichard
Life of the Party
Someone mentioned multi generational living earlier. I've seen a similar approach several times with a twist. That being that multiple branches of the same family pool their money and buy a multi storey building and parcel it out so each branch has their own floor or floors. Saw this in Germany, San Antonio, NYC, and again in San Diego. Its pretty common in Latin America and Asia. Seems like a good use of family finances
wanderingrichard
Life of the Party
We've already reached or passed most of those points if you live along the I-5 between the north and south state borders . I have coworkers living in Chehalis and Centralia driving to JBLM and Sumner.IMHO something needs to change the paradigm regarding real estate. When many of us grew up the goal of having ownership of a 3 bedroom home with a white picket fence was obtainable - with sacrifice. That no longer exists. When the median price of a house is $1M e.g. King County, one needs to earn $300k/year to afford it. Not Happening. In King County the median family income is ~$100k. That equates to a $300k house. - nowhere near the median price of a house.
There have been some studies/analyses done about housing prices. "Moody’s Analytics shared with Fortune its proprietary analysis of U.S. housing markets. According to that analysis of 392 metropolitan statistical areas, 96% are “overvalued,” with 149 that are overvalued by at least 25%."
The U.S. housing market is historically overvalued. Moody’s says these cities may see prices drop up to 10%
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, recently told Fortune some cities — especially Boise, Idaho — could see home prices drop up to 10% over the next year or so.www.deseret.com
Wages do not support the current housing prices and the ability to be able to buy or rent something. Employers in urban centers will not be able to attract new employees or keep existing employees if they can not afford to live near by. Nurses, teachers, service industry, and other 'middle class' working people will not be able to live in the area they currently live. So they move out of the area and find employment elsewhere where housing costs (rent or ownership) are more in balance. Unfortunately it is happening right now as we speak. Does that mean the quality and/or availability of support/service is reduced? I think so...
Will employers adjust wages based on location? Will mortgage loans be changed so more people can afford one - 40 year loan? More governmental subsidy programs? Does a recession/real estate bubble need to occur - like the one in 2008? Will communal/multi-family living become the norm? Will the goal in life change from having a nest egg in one's home to have enough to retire? Will people obtain an education in a well paying field of employment rather than being employed in a field they love. Unfortunately I think the answer is yes to all of these.
My wife has friends (insurance and medical. Anybody work at Swedish or Fred Hutch and care to explain the wage disaster there ) and coworkers who got pushed out of their apartments and condos in the Seattle area because the rents were "adjusted upwards" to accommodate and take advantage of the higher wages of the tech workers. Most of them found employment in other states.
As far as wages adjusting upwards for whatever? Forget it. My clearanced defense sector job only pays @56k/ yr. That's pretty much what i made non clearanced back in the 90's, overseas and statewide. Industry wide, we've had a contraction of pay and benefits starting @ 2005 that hasn't reinflated to keep pace.
BUT, Big Profits for the top 25 in the industry because we been at war for 20 + years? Yeah , all that went into the pockets of the CEO's , senior board members, et al. (Look up the annual disclosure on Phoebe Novakavic, head of General Dynamics, for the the last, oh, 10 years or so)
Almost none of it trickled down.
Now we expect our 25-45 yro's to live on essentially the same or less wages than what the average was in 30 years ago?
I'm all for the moratorium on corporations owning large blocs of single and multi family housing just to line their pockets. It's legalized robbery and a huge part of what's wrong with the housing market. At the same time, I'm against the Cory Bookeresque push for massive super density housing that in reality only benefits politicians via voting blocs.
wanderingrichard
Life of the Party
I think its now the WA Governors mansion ......
wanderingrichard
Life of the Party
You supply your own popcorn....
wanderingrichard
Life of the Party
do believe the safe landing runway has gotten shorter and narrower...mortgage rates doubling in such a short period is a hammer, and Bend homes are now sitting with first wave of price reductions...have zero clue on what the crytpo plummet impact...oil companies jacking gas prices beyond justification...and that maniacal fuk in Russia likely to do something even stupider if the buzz about his mental/physcial health are true.
think I'll hitch up the boat see how the bite at Crane prairie is this evening..
think I'll hitch up the boat see how the bite at Crane prairie is this evening..