NFR How's the housing market where you live?

Non-fishing related
charles sullivan said:
I don't understand the thought that Seattle or Portland policy makers are somehow the driving force behind people moving for social reasons. It seems to discount the basic population and economic data that is easily found. I understand that there are actual people who are leaving those Seattle because of theft and homelessness etc. To blame Boise's home prices on Seattle's local policy seems more emotional than logical. Consider a different perspective:

From 2021-2022 Seattle's population increased by 2.7%. King County's (more rural) increased by less than .5%. The majority of these people immigrated to Seattle (rather than births). They are by and large educated and excellent earners. At the same time King County residents receive 62 cents back for every dollar sent to Olympia. that is an average of $1,400.00 sent to each person in WA from King County. The state as a whole uses King County as a piggy bank. So in order to fund their own schools and deal with their own challenges that come with being urban and growing, they have to tax themselves at an uber- high rate. This tends to price out retired people. When your tax bill is larger than my mortgage, it becomes a problem for people on fixed incomes. There is also a clear nexus between living costs and homelessness. It is one of the reasons for it.

Further, due to the population pressure that growing at that rate brings, home prices have skyrocketted. The median home cost is somewhere around $900,000 in 2021. That gives a person who is retired, does not want to pay the taxes Seattle requires, and does not care for the change (older people) a lot of buying power in places like Boise or Spokane or even Bellingham.

My contention is that it isn't any social policy that is the leading cause of the Exodus (expressed and a 2.7 % increase ;)) from Seattle. It is pure market force economics. We are discussing long time residents that are looking to move because they are funding the rest of the state and because of the elevated costs of living due to rapid growth. The influx of High earners are giving them the chance to move to most places because property values have consistently been increasing faster than most other places.

Oddly, the net migration from Boise to Seattle from 2015-2019 was 309 TO SEATTLE! That means that 309 more people moved to Seattle from Boise than from Seattle to Boise in that timeframe (from census data). The people who move to Idaho are logically going to be politically more conservative or they would have moved to Eugene or Bellingham (with 3,000+ of their friends). You are selecting for the actual people who will bad mouth Seattle politics/ culture the most. We all tend to prefer living with like minded people.

I am sure that you have met plenty of people who have left Seattle for Boise. Like a an ex-husband complaining about their ex-wife, they are going to tell you about what they hated. The fact is though, the numbers say that the ex-wife is getting a lot more dates. Seattle isn't seeing it's population leave due to these things. In fact, it's increasing, even from people from Boise.

Spokane is getting more Seattleites than Vise versa. The financial irony of that is as rich as cheesecake.
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Part of what's going on is simply a matter of scale. Even if there's only a small percentage of the population in coastal cities that are so discontented with the consequences of the policy-regime they've been living under in urban centers that they decide to relocate to a city like Boise, the sheer number of humans living in coastal population centers is so large relative to Boise (etc) that it can create an influx that overwhelms the local supply of housing and drive prices up dramatically.
 
JayB said:
Part of what's going on is simply a matter of scale. Even if there's only a small percentage of the population in coastal cities that are so discontented with the consequences of the policy-regime they've been living under in urban centers that they decide to relocate to a city like Boise, the sheer number of humans living in coastal population centers is so large relative to Boise (etc) that it can create an influx that overwhelms the local supply of housing and drive prices up dramatically.
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The stat is 300 more people moving to seattle than vice versa. I believe the timeframe was 2015-2019.
I am sure that you have seen and talked to Seattlites that have moved to Boise. The fact is that more have moved the other way. It is not a percentage issue. It is raw numbers.
The numbers were taken from census data.
 
Lived in Lower Queen Anne and S Seattle while working downtown for almost 10 years, until a few years ago. Public transpo and biked the whole time.

My impression. Great city. Real city music scene, art and culture. Good restaurants. History. Unique identity. Environmentally progressive. Politically...lately... meh...

Lived in Brooklyn work in Soho and spent some time in chicago, philly, portand, lots of san fran. Grew up sacramento.

Seattle is no worse than other big cities. Preferable to others listed IMO. So close to nature too.

Much worse out there than Seattle, not sure what folks expect from cities.
 
charles sullivan said:
The stat is 300 more people moving to seattle than vice versa. I believe the timeframe was 2015-2019.
I am sure that you have seen and talked to Seattlites that have moved to Boise. The fact is that more have moved the other way. It is not a percentage issue. It is raw numbers.
The numbers were taken from census data.
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This may be anecdotal but perhaps decent food for thought. Perhaps not, I've been wrong before at least two times so I'm not infallible. I personally know quite a few people that have actually relocated to my rural hood and they cite conditions in Seattle being unliveable and unsafe. These are not right leaning people. These are people that are remote working dot com types who can afford to live where they choose. I think there are many many people forced to live in Seattle for reasons that their jobs are located there. More anecdotes abound in my friend who is an Idaho real estate agent and has told me that a larger proportion of her clients are Seattle and Portland based moving citing the same reasons and situations above. There is also the raw economy as well. You can cash out in Seattle and buy a good chunk of land with a nice house in the country. That is attractive to many especially if they can remain gainfully employed. So I would argue (all with anecdotal data only) that the migration to Seattle is for economic necessity and the exodus is for social reasons and the fact that Seattle and Portland resemble third world conditions compared to that of when I lived there.
 
I would guess that in much of Western Washington people in smaller cities and rural areas could make the case that the influx of Seattlites has raised home prices. The same set of census data showed just that. B'ham had 2 or 3 thousand more Seattlites come than Hamster leave for Seattle in the same period. Oly, Bremerton, and maybe Kitsap were similar. Spokane could to as Seattlites tend to move their in greater numbers than Spokane residents head to Seattle.
I will always go with data when available. Emotions and feelings are real but lead to beliefs that can't be squared with the data or changed when the data changes.
The bigger issue is to blame local home prices on another places politics. Do Seattlites blame their home prices on Mississipi or Oklahoma knowing that there is no way in hell Tech firms could recruit the talent needed to do buisiness there? At the same time the fedral Gov. has been printing money and had interest rates held low for over 20 years. Prices are what they are due to Fed. Policy. Home prices have been at all time highs for a while, until the Fed raised interest prices.
How in hell is it Seattle and SF's fault for how they run their cities? Cali runs a state budget surplus and gives more to the federal government than it recieves. Seattle/ King Co. is funding seemingly most of Wa state. Idaho recieves almost 2 dollars for every dollar is pays to the federal government.
Somehow they are the cause of the worlds ills though? I honestly don't understand.
Maybe if those places were able to keep their own money at home, they could keep their retirees at home rather than pricing them out with taxes because their money is going to Idaho. Yet, I rarely hear Seattlites complain about Wall Walla.
I don't mind the urban areas and wealthier places paying for other less well off places. Neither do the Seattle and SF populations based on how they vote. They tend to favor social programs in their politics. They are consistant.
Blaming those places politics and policies for rising home prices 600 miles from them while taking money from them is the height of inconsistancy.
 
What I've seen in my neighborhood (NE Olympia) is not Seattle migration but people coming from out of state. Of The four homes sold this year, the new owners came from Wyo., Ore. and CA. (2). Two said getting out of the hot weather was their motivation. Is this global warming migration? I think retirees are putting that into the decision process...
 
charles sullivan said:
I would guess that in much of Western Washington people in smaller cities and rural areas could make the case that the influx of Seattlites has raised home prices. The same set of census data showed just that. B'ham had 2 or 3 thousand more Seattlites come than Hamster leave for Seattle in the same period. Oly, Bremerton, and maybe Kitsap were similar. Spokane could to as Seattlites tend to move their in greater numbers than Spokane residents head to Seattle.
I will always go with data when available. Emotions and feelings are real but lead to beliefs that can't be squared with the data or changed when the data changes.
The bigger issue is to blame local home prices on another places politics. Do Seattlites blame their home prices on Mississipi or Oklahoma knowing that there is no way in hell Tech firms could recruit the talent needed to do buisiness there? At the same time the fedral Gov. has been printing money and had interest rates held low for over 20 years. Prices are what they are due to Fed. Policy. Home prices have been at all time highs for a while, until the Fed raised interest prices.
How in hell is it Seattle and SF's fault for how they run their cities? Cali runs a state budget surplus and gives more to the federal government than it recieves. Seattle/ King Co. is funding seemingly most of Wa state. Idaho recieves almost 2 dollars for every dollar is pays to the federal government.
Somehow they are the cause of the worlds ills though? I honestly don't understand.
Maybe if those places were able to keep their own money at home, they could keep their retirees at home rather than pricing them out with taxes because their money is going to Idaho. Yet, I rarely hear Seattlites complain about Wall Walla.
I don't mind the urban areas and wealthier places paying for other less well off places. Neither do the Seattle and SF populations based on how they vote. They tend to favor social programs in their politics. They are consistant.
Blaming those places politics and policies for rising home prices 600 miles from them while taking money from them is the height of inconsistancy.
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Not blaming Seattle for anything. I only hold them accountable for how they run their city. I don't really care how they do it all that much as I don't have to live there. I'm lucky to be able to choose. There is no emotion attached to what I posted above. Just observations, nothing more. No value judgment. Personally I welcome those coming from cities to pursue a life in a more rural setting. They are my neighbors and thus far have been pleasant people to interact with. I don't see that changing. We sometimes discuss politics on the rare occasion and sometimes disagree. This doesn't effect our relationship or our looking out for one another as neighbors. We both have different skill sets and background and have thus far been able to trade labor and expertise in a couple of venues of which I'm grateful for. I don't want to speak for them but I'll bet if asked we both likely feel we got very lucky as far as neighbors go.
 
Dustin Chromers said:
Not blaming Seattle for anything. I only hold them accountable for how they run their city. I don't really care how they do it all that much as I don't have to live there. I'm lucky to be able to choose. There is no emotion attached to what I posted above. Just observations, nothing more. No value judgment. Personally I welcome those coming from cities to pursue a life in a more rural setting. They are my neighbors and thus far have been pleasant people to interact with. I don't see that changing. We sometimes discuss politics on the rare occasion and sometimes disagree. This doesn't effect our relationship or our looking out for one another as neighbors. We both have different skill sets and background and have thus far been able to trade labor and expertise in a couple of venues of which I'm grateful for. I don't want to speak for them but I'll bet if asked we both likely feel we got very lucky as far as neighbors go.
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I was speaking more to the fella who was blaming Boise home prices on Seattle and SF politics even after I showed census data showing that more people moved the other way. I struggle with multi-quoting so I can see where my communication may not be clear.

I think that you could make a case that their politics and policies increase home prices where you are given the same data. That would be logical given what I have seen. Boise? I would need to see some data to support it. I've only seen data to the contrary.

I'm admittedly frustrated by the near constant Seattle/ Urban America bashing. I'm willing to defend Seattle or B'ham when it is required. The City is not perfect, but it seems like many who dislike them only look at he negatives. Additionally, many who do it also benefit from the same policies and politics that they criticize them for. There is a red portion and a black portion to any balance sheet. It's important that both portions are looked at.I would move to Seattle if it worked financially. I think it's a pretty great place. My biggest complaint is that it lacks in public transportation. I have been spending more time with hunters and hunting forums recently so I may be more sensitive as well. I have found that is a tough group to communicate with in this state.

I have neighbors who see the world differently too. Maybe fewer than you given how politically/ socially homogenous B'ham can be. It may be as homogenous as hunting forums :). As with your neighborhood, we can find common ground. I can disagree with people on tax policy or policing etc. and get along fine, mostly because it does not come up too often and if it does, we give each other the benefit of the doubt. Of course, we are looking at each other face to face so that helps too. I think that may be the big takeaway.
 
charles sullivan said:
I was speaking more to the fella who was blaming Boise home prices on Seattle and SF politics even after I showed census data showing that more people moved the other way. I struggle with multi-quoting so I can see where my communication may not be clear.

I think that you could make a case that their politics and policies increase home prices where you are given the same data. That would be logical given what I have seen. Boise? I would need to see some data to support it. I've only seen data to the contrary.

I'm admittedly frustrated by the near constant Seattle/ Urban America bashing. I'm willing to defend Seattle or B'ham when it is required. The City is not perfect, but it seems like many who dislike them only look at he negatives. Additionally, many who do it also benefit from the same policies and politics that they criticize them for. There is a red portion and a black portion to any balance sheet. It's important that both portions are looked at.I would move to Seattle if it worked financially. I think it's a pretty great place. My biggest complaint is that it lacks in public transportation. I have been spending more time with hunters and hunting forums recently so I may be more sensitive as well. I have found that is a tough group to communicate with in this state.

I have neighbors who see the world differently too. Maybe fewer than you given how politically/ socially homogenous B'ham can be. It may be as homogenous as hunting forums :). As with your neighborhood, we can find common ground. I can disagree with people on tax policy or policing etc. and get along fine, mostly because it does not come up too often and if it does, we give each other the benefit of the doubt. Of course, we are looking at each other face to face so that helps too. I think that may be the big takeaway.
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I agree. It’s not perfect. Not even close but compare it it to other urban areas in the world, or U.S. and you tell me what other major metro area of its size you would rather live in. Comparatively safe. Better than nearly all economy. Incredible access to urban and outdoor pursuits for its inhabitants.

Bash it if you will but to me it’s just shows ignorance to the plight of other urban dwellers nearly anywhere else in the world. Does it have more urban issues that other parts of the PNW…uh, dar yep. Wonder why. Has it been trending the wrong direction the last couple years…uh, yep like nearly every other urban area in the U.S…made worse by the pace of growth the last two decades. Are some of polices pushed by the more fringe members of city council obnoxious? Yeah, of course.

I’ve lived and worked in the following cities; Hartford CT, Tampa FL, Phoenix AZ, Denver CO. I’ve also spent a lot of time in NYC where I have family and spent many weeks in Boston, Philly, etc. for work and pleasure as well as other cities across the U.S.

It’s not even close. I’d live in Seattle over all those cities without thinking twice if living in an urban areas was the choice I made.

Dodging syringes and human turds. Sounds about right if the decision you make is to live downtown in a major metro area. I’ve done that in every one I have ever lived/worked in (Hartford CT was the worst). People fleeing urban life for quiet rural areas. Yeah, that’s been happening since cities existed. Happening more now with the flexibility afforded by Covid working arrangements. Guess what, only to be replaced by rural young adults looking to move from that life to the big city.

I’m not defending Seattle or some of the policies it’s elected politicians have chosen to pursue. Let’s get real though about the realities of Seattle compared to other major metro areas.
 
Wetswinger said:
Two said getting out of the hot weather was their motivation. Is this global warming migration? I think retirees are putting that into the decision process...
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The 1930's Dust Bowl of the Great Plains, generated by ongoing intense drought and heat, drove the biggest climate migration in US history to date. US climate change modeling projects similar events on a much larger scale.
Grandaughter just returned from Portugal and the record shattering heat wave, she heard sirens around the clock as paramedics were summoned to heat stroke casualties, over a thousand folks perished around the country in ten days.
The maritime climates with the wind, rain and fog folks like to complain about? Beats worrying about the color of that water coming out of the faucet, or that if the a/c shuts down it will be a mad scramble to find some.
 
jasmillo said:
I agree. It’s not perfect. Not even close but compare it it to other urban areas in the world, or U.S. and you tell me what other major metro area of its size you would rather live in. Comparatively safe. Better than nearly all economy. Incredible access to urban and outdoor pursuits for its inhabitants.

Bash it if you will but to me it’s just shows ignorance to the plight of other urban dwellers nearly anywhere else in the world. Does it have more urban issues that other parts of the PNW…uh, dar yep. Wonder why. Has it been trending the wrong direction the last couple years…uh, yep like nearly every other urban area in the U.S…made worse by the pace of growth the last two decades. Are some of polices pushed by the more fringe members of city council obnoxious? Yeah, of course.

I’ve lived and worked in the following cities; Hartford CT, Tampa FL, Phoenix AZ, Denver CO. I’ve also spent a lot of time in NYC where I have family and spent many weeks in Boston, Philly, etc. for work and pleasure as well as other cities across the U.S.

It’s not even close. I’d live in Seattle over all those cities without thinking twice if living in an urban areas was the choice I made.

Dodging syringes and human turds. Sounds about right if the decision you make is to live downtown in a major metro area. I’ve done that in every one I have ever lived/worked in (Hartford CT was the worst). People fleeing urban life for quiet rural areas. Yeah, that’s been happening since cities existed. Happening more now with the flexibility afforded by Covid working arrangements. Guess what, only to be replaced by rural young adults looking to move from that life to the big city.

I’m not defending Seattle or some of the policies it’s elected politicians have chosen to pursue. Let’s get real though about the realities of Seattle compared to other major metro areas.
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Oh it’s already been established on another forum—it’s a complete and utter shithole. Goes for all of King County, really. Stay away. Don’t come to the games, don’t even watch Seattle’s pro sports teams on TV and definitely stay the hell out of the restaurants. Same goes for hospitals and clinics, too.
 
SurfnFish said:
absolutely, quality health care is way over rated...lol
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Seattle has got me there. I live in an area that cannot attract doctors. It's literally a doctor desert. So when my parents or myself need some high end healthcare we go to, you guessed it, Seattle. Even I as a rural elitist can see the benefit of the urban centers. I've lived in them when I was younger. More dating choices as well. That was pre tinder etc.
 
SurfnFish said:
absolutely, quality health care is way over rated...lol
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I have wondered whether hospitals tend to accumulate out of City homeless. I mean if you get hurt in Whatcom County, you are taken to the hospital in B'ham. How many of those people are unable to make it back to where they were? How many rural homeless end up in the City with the hospital?
Anyone could bus it back fairly close to where they were living in the County but there are more services for as well as access to intoxicants (for the addicted homeless) in the City. My understanding is that the majority of homeless in any city are from the county/ area where the City is located or that City itself. Just a random thought this morning.
 
charles sullivan said:
I have wondered whether hospitals tend to accumulate out of City homeless. I mean if you get hurt in Whatcom County, you are taken to the hospital in B'ham. How many of those people are unable to make it back to where they were? How many rural homeless end up in the City with the hospital?
Anyone could bus it back fairly close to where they were living in the County but there are more services for as well as access to intoxicants (for the addicted homeless) in the City. My understanding is that the majority of homeless in any city are from the county/ area where the City is located or that City itself. Just a random thought this morning.
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We have very few rural homeless people. However the nearest city has lots of services. I think it's definitely the case of that they accumulate around services and indeed access to substance of choice.
 
20220726_095606.jpg
Case-Shiller home price index is up 19.8% year to date, but the market is slowing. Today's Fed rate hike won't help.
 
charles sullivan said:
I was speaking more to the fella who was blaming Boise home prices on Seattle and SF politics even after I showed census data showing that more people moved the other way. I struggle with multi-quoting so I can see where my communication may not be clear.

I think that you could make a case that their politics and policies increase home prices where you are given the same data. That would be logical given what I have seen. Boise? I would need to see some data to support it. I've only seen data to the contrary.

I'm admittedly frustrated by the near constant Seattle/ Urban America bashing. I'm willing to defend Seattle or B'ham when it is required. The City is not perfect, but it seems like many who dislike them only look at he negatives. Additionally, many who do it also benefit from the same policies and politics that they criticize them for. There is a red portion and a black portion to any balance sheet. It's important that both portions are looked at.I would move to Seattle if it worked financially. I think it's a pretty great place. My biggest complaint is that it lacks in public transportation. I have been spending more time with hunters and hunting forums recently so I may be more sensitive as well. I have found that is a tough group to communicate with in this state.

I have neighbors who see the world differently too. Maybe fewer than you given how politically/ socially homogenous B'ham can be. It may be as homogenous as hunting forums :). As with your neighborhood, we can find common ground. I can disagree with people on tax policy or policing etc. and get along fine, mostly because it does not come up too often and if it does, we give each other the benefit of the doubt. Of course, we are looking at each other face to face so that helps too. I think that may be the big takeaway.
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Couple of Points:

1. My family made regular trips to Seattle for various reasons from 1979 onwards, and for ~80% of the time from 1992-2014 I lived within the city limits: U-District, Ballard, Phinney Ridge, and Capitol Hill. I live about 12 miles north of the city now, and find myself either passing through or in the city a few times a month.

Does saying that you liked Seattle much more when the public spaces in Seattle were safer, cleaner, and more orderly and resenting the people and policies that have made it much less so mean you "hate" Seattle? If I expressed hostility to someone dumping industrial waste and raw sewage into a river that I lived alongside, the policies that made such destruction possible, and the people supporting what I deemed to be profoundly irresponsible, reckless, delusional, and misguided policies that enabled such pollution - could that only be motivated by a "hatred" for the river? Perhaps it might be the opposite?

I've seen and lived with the consequences of various policy regimes instituted by the city with my own eyes over the course of the past ~40+ years, after spending most of my adult life actually living in the city I think I've got every right to express hostility and contempt for politicians and policies that have made the city a worse place to live in - *especially* for people that are poor, physically vulnerable, and need to use public spaces.

I'd be willing to wager that I have connections to the city that are at least as long, deep, and significant as yours, and have considerably more regular contact with people that actually live in Seattle than you do. The idea that you have to be some kind of extreme right-wing ideologue to dislike the direction things have gone in the city, or to conclude that you'd have a dramatically better quality of life elsewhere and decide to vote with your feet and move - be it a few miles outside the city, or over the Cascades - is the sort of conjecture that you can *only* engage in if you live far enough from the city to base your opinions on ideology and very little else.

2. California has a population of 40 million. Oregon has a population of 4 million. Washington has a population of 7.5 million. That's 51.5 million. Idaho has a population of 1.9 million, 800,000 of whom live in the Boise metro. Ergo the population of California + Oregon + Washington = roughly 64X greater than the greater Boise Area. Even if a tiny percentage of the 52 million inhabitants of WA, CA, OR decide that move to Boise and other small cities in the interior of the West, that's more than enough to overwhelm the local housing market in those cities, which is at least part of the reason that 3 of the 15 fastest cities/towns in the US in 2022 were suburbs of Boise.

They're clearly coming from somewhere - and while the net migration figures from a single city that constitutes a relatively small fraction of the total population in coastal metro areas are interesting - without disaggregating them into more granular demographic cohorts the numbers can't tell you much about the impact they'll have on the effective demand for housing or home prices. If you've got that data, I'd be interested in looking at it, but I'd be willing to bet that the cohort moving from Boise to Seattle proper skews heavily towards the young and childless, with a smattering of established adults with the wealth and earning power necessary to buy a home in the Puget Sound these days.

In any event - the idea that outmigration from coastal cities with an exceptionally high cost of living and a deteriorating quality of life isn't driving demand for homes in Boise and other cities like it upwards and isn't having an effect on prices is very difficult to reconcile with the facts on the ground, but I can assure you that it will be very welcome news indeed to anyone who wants to buy a home there.

3. In a very important sense, I'm on *your* team! I personally hope there's a sustained, generational mass-exodus from smaller cities and towns in the Western interior that are nestled amongst rivers and mountains, and that everyone leaving has the means and the desire to pay a wildly irrational premium for a very average home ~10 miles north of Seattle, and that this trend culminates in a speculative frenzy that dwarfs anything in recorded history right when my youngest graduates from high school.
 
Dustin Chromers said:
You mean inflicting pain on the citizen consumer for the mass creation of money and government over spending isn't going to work?
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At least for those who bought properties with mortgage debt pre-COVID high inflation is an ally. Repay the bank with inflated dollars and keep a real asset.
 
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