NFR How's the housing market where you live?

[mems]

Fed only has two controls over the economy, interest rates and how much cash is in the economy. Right now we are in La La land known as stagflation. High unemployment and high inflation. This is what happened in the 70’s with Nixon and the Viet Nam War. Because of inaccurate statistics neither the unemployment rate, you have to actually be looking for a job to be counted; and the inaccurate inflation rates being reported make the problem look better than it actually is. Fractional banking put so much debt in the economy that we have no control over how much money is in circulation. Simply put money only represents debt. It is time for politicians to think beyond the majority and to start thinking like economists. Problem is because of the lack of oil we are in a contractionary economy and there are no economic models based on that, they are all, supply/demand, Keynesian based on growth. We do have more people every year but the work force is contracting. Add to that the extreme uneven distribution of wealth we are headed to more than just a recession.

 

[jaredoconnor]

... It is time for politicians to think ...

I wouldn't hold your breath.

 

[SurfnFish]

Yeah, not trying to start a pissing match. Maybe you meant economic conditions specific to housing?

I'm an optimist and believe we'll get through this. But to Billy's point the other day, there are a lot of people struggling right now and we need to be empathetic.

yep, no pissers...old enough that I gotta shake it too much anyway...as to what's going on..

stock market - Algorithimic trading now driving 70% of the market...hundred of millions of transactions a day from massive computing banks running the margins, day trading on an enormous scale, creating surges and drops with zero linkage to PE fundamentals..,typical strategy is to buy big chunks of a handful of stocks to drive up the prices, buy the shorts, sell off to trigger the fall, make money both the run-up and the fall...all in a matter of seconds ...the competition is so intense the computing houses fight to get closest to the ISP hubs because literally a hundredth of a second of latency can make a huge difference in buy/sell...and yet our economy still looks at the stock market as if it is somehow a rational indicator

real estate - housing shortage in major regions due to in large part driven by entire new developments of single family housing bought up by money houses, awash in cash, for long term rental investment holds...protect rental profits with the deprecation schedule, initial investment continues to climb through housing apprecation. In for the long haul so sags mean nothing, renters market always strong during a housing shortage...mobius loop, new tract gets built, money houses buy up all or chunks, drives prices by reducing inventory, maintaining renter demand...

consumer costs...covid has kicked the global supply chain right in the ass, interrupting production and supply..going to be a while and it is going to cost. hopefully creates a paradigm shift where we start projecting how to move forward with less supply on cheap Chinese goods and more domestic products = employment. Gas prices another deal, show me an instance where the oil companies don't try to ream us at every opportunity.

money - location, location, location.

 

[Dr. Magill]

I don’t believe we will get to domestic production of essentials under the current management.

 

[Bob Carroll]

Fed only has two controls over the economy, interest rates and how much cash is in the economy. Right now we are in La La land known as stagflation.

UBS put out a good discussion of stagflation a few weeks ago. In it they reviewed the 1970’s and Nixon’s part in helping cause it. Their view is that we do not have stagflation at this point. There is a good video…but it is almost 20 minutes long.

 

[RCF]

Forecasted property tax increases from 2022 to 2023 in King County:



Comparison of taxes from 2021 and 2022 which went up a lot already:

https://kingcounty.gov/depts/assessor/~/media/depts/Assessor/documents/propertytaxes/2022CityComparison.ashx

Dayum!!!

Sucks but especially for those of us on a fixed income. It will be thousands of dollars in an increase next year...

 

[Skagittarius]

I sold my house in Snohomish Co in April for 15% more than listing and 65% more than a comparable properly across the street sold in 2020. My agent thought I should have held out for more. He was right. Apparently it's already increased in value by $15K since April. Crazy.

I feel very lucky to have found the place I purchased a few weeks ago in FL, as things are just as crazy here but at a much lower scale. Even with inflation and competition, I was able to buy a bigger house with 3 times the property for less than what I spent in Snohomish 15 years ago.

 

[SurfnFish]

I sold my house in Snohomish Co in April for 15% more than listing and 65% more than a comparable properly across the street sold in 2020. My agent thought I should have held out for more. He was right. Apparently it's already increased in value by $15K since April. Crazy.

I feel very lucky to have found the place I purchased a few weeks ago in FL, as things are just as crazy here but at a much lower scale. Even with inflation and competition, I was able to buy a bigger house with 3 times the property for less than what I spent in Snohomish 15 years ago.

what part of FL did you decide on?

 

[Skagittarius]

I'm in Lecanto (Citrus county). Love it! One of the reasons I decided on this area is the new extension that recently opened on the Suncoast Parkway to Crystal River. I'm about 70 miles from Tampa but can be there in an hour.

 

[albula]

I'm in Lecanto (Citrus county). Love it! One of the reasons I decided on this area is the new extension that recently opened on the Suncoast Parkway to Crystal River. I'm about 70 miles from Tampa but can be there in an hour.

I used to live in Black Diamond and had a place on the water at the end of Mason Creek in Homosassa. Many fond memories of guiding for tarpon and reds 15 or 20 years ago. Things sure have changed in terms of the population and that fishery as they have everywhere. There must be a number of new developments as the number of folks has nearly doubled since I moved there. Used to be that we never saw snook north of Haulover Creek and now they are numerous all the way up into Ozello and in spots actually outnumber the reds. Lots of prop shops in Homosassa and Crystal River. What a nasty place to run a skiff.

 

[Stonedfish]

 

[Skagittarius]

Albula -
I'm having a 21ft tunnel hull skiff on a jack plate built to fish out of Crystal River. Hundreds of linear miles of fly fishing open here that I'm anxious to explore.

 

[albula]

Albula -
I'm having a 21ft tunnel hull skiff on a jack plate built to fish out of Crystal River. Hundreds of linear miles of fly fishing open here that I'm anxious to explore.

I ran a Hell's Bay 17'8 Professional. Boat would pole shallower than the reds wanted to swim. With a 21 footer I guess you will be mostly fishing the spoil banks and deeper water for trout and staying out of the shallow stuff and off the tarpon flats. You will have some good shallow water ( 8 to 20 Feet) grouper fishing available once you get numbers on some rocks and ledges but that doesn't really lend itself to fishing with a fly rod. My favorite fishing and fishing spots down there would mostly not be practical in a 21 foot skiff that is not a technical poling skiff. You boat will give you some offshore options however. We caught some huge bass from the Withlacoochee also. One day me young son landed 3 fish over 10 pounds. You can have good fun down there with a big boat but my guess is if you get into the fly fishing that is available you will end up with a smaller and more shallow running skiff that you can pole. Those fish in less than a foot of water do not tolerate any noise.

 

[ianpadron]

Montana is the new Washington. Watch their fisheries erode, the water get sucked dry from ag and residential usage, and the population turn into something that will be unrecognizable to those who have lived or traveled there prior to the 2010s. Oh, and their politics and homelessness head in gross directions.

You been to Missoula recently? It's what Portland was right before things got REALLY weird. No bueno.

 

[ianpadron]

... Apparently only warm here in Bend now. We put the house up on the market 9 days ago, multiple offers, accepted a cash offer at 99.06% of what we asked, which was 3x (OK, 2.9722222x) what we paid 10 years ago. Stay tuned ....

cheers

Congrats on the sale, don't spend it all in one place now!

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

Congrats on the sale, don't spend it all in one place now!

Suspect we will spend half on a new place, hopefully with an acreage (I really want land - I would live in a shack if it had land attached - trying to get the wife in the same mode of thinking).

cheers

 

[Dr. Magill]

Owning land can be a lot of work. You’ll need some equipment also: tractor, good mower, chain saw, etc. I could work on my place every day and I wouldn’t be on top of all of it.

 

[Coach Potter]

Prices here in C'da and Spokane are showing signs of cracking...

 

[Mossback]

Owning land can be a lot of work. You’ll need some equipment also: tractor, good mower, chain saw, etc. I could work on my place every day and I wouldn’t be on top of all of it.

This...
Acreage equals time, money and labor.
Even if its mostly wooded, its a lot of work.
If you like that sort of thing and have time, then its for you.

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

Owning land can be a lot of work. You’ll need some equipment also: tractor, good mower, chain saw, etc. I could work on my place every day and I wouldn’t be on top of all of it.

This...
Acreage equals time, money and labor.
Even if its mostly wooded, its a lot of work.
If you like that sort of thing and have time, then its for you.

Ohh, I know it, had an acreage in Kansas, small hobby/working farm with orchard, I also put in a vineyard (1200+ vines) and took out a vineyard, all solo (well, me and the wife) and by hand - loved it!!

cheers