NFR Buy on the Crypto Dip?

Non-fishing related

Bugmeister

Staying Gold
Forum Supporter
I'm all too familiar with the living paycheck to paycheck lifestyle with truly zero money left to save each pay period. Spent half my working life in that situation. And then it got worse - my kids began going to college. The upside of that predicament is that the kids qualified for scholarships, grants, loans, and work study. When IRAs allowed a person to contribute $2,000 dollars a year, I managed to put in $1,000. When I first took a federal agency job, even though there was a government match that amounted to 5%, I could only manage 3%. In 2000 my "soccer mom" mini van gave up the ghost with a mere $700 trade in value, although I'd be afraid I was going to have to literally pay someone to haul it off. So I bought a 2000 Subaru and began making payments. Then in 2001 both kids were out of college, and I made that amazing discovery of actually having more money than I needed to live on.

That's when I began shoveling as much money into my gov't. TSP retirement account as regulations permitted. And despite my bad investment technique of "buying high and selling low," I managed to build up between 1/3 and 1/2 as much money as I otherwise would have. I've spelled this out to offer a ray of hope for those who think they will never be able to retire. Because as it turned out I was able to retire in 2016, having only saved for retirement about 1/2 of my years in the work force. And to make financial matters just that much worse, I got divorced when I was in my early 50s, you know, about the time when one can see having their house paid off prior to retirement. So I use my rather modest pension to make my mortgage payment, and mostly live on social security. I use my TSP retirement to help pay property taxes, but honestly I use more of it to fund fishing and other vacations. Since age 70 1/2 I have been obligated to draw down a certain amount of the TSP each year, but it's been working out such that the balance is higher now than it was when I retired, despite all the drawdowns. The way it's working out, if inflation doesn't kill off my resources, I just might make it to the finish line financially intact. So starting late to save for retirement is way, way better than not doing it at all.

TSP = Trout Searching Paycheck . Very nice.
 

alpinetrout

Steelhead
Forum Supporter
View attachment 41711
A savings & investment rate >30% definitely speeds up time to financial independence. 15% savings rate sets you up for the classic age 64 retirement (the long path the federal government hopes you choose).
If that chart is to be believed, I should have been able to retire before I graduated from high school if I had just held off on buying a bit of fishing gear and few tanks of gas.

It seems to be making an assumption that your living expenses are (and always will be) equal to the remainder of your income minus savings. So if you save 100% of your income for <1 year, you're financially set for life?
 

RCF

Life of the Party
Forecasting what one will need when they retire is a crap shoot at best. For example, I worked at the Lazy B for 35 years. I was making way more up until I retired than when I got married in 1982. BUT I was actually making less. TYVM for inflation! Taking my salary in 1982 and adjusting for Cost Of Living my 'purchasing power' was 10% less in current dollars. Social Security is not the answer - for sure. Saving more than Cost Of Living adjustments may be a better way to go. Not sure who can do that but if one does not set a target, one will never know...
 

Evan B

Bobber Downey Jr.
Staff member
Admin
I certainly don't want to suggest anyone jump in to this crypto world, especially since I have yet to meet hardly anyone with the risk tolerance and non-emotional approach to things... Plus a certain degree of tech savvy and bullshit detector to venture off beyond the big names like Bitcoin and Ethereum... and I most definitely don't post details about my financial situation here.

What I will say is that I have put no more than a few thousand in to this since around 2016. A four digit number. From the profits I pulled this year, I gave myself a "bonus" and pulled out a small percentage to treat myself to my new boat, build our new 10x20 storage shed, bought an F250 from a forum member and got custom cabinets made for one of the rooms in our house. The rest is waiting for markets to settle and will go back in to more crypto and other assets.

Even with the huge market downturn this year, the main crypto I still hold has massively outperformed the market and is actually about 5x higher than it was this time last year. So there are still positives happening, you just really have to do your homework to know what to do, and that's the part I'm not going to help people with because I have learned everyone holds it against you when they eff it up.

I've also been hearing since my first week doing crypto, from people who barely know the word Bitcoin, that "it was over and it's time to give up on crypto because BTC is a failure!" I wait til those really start to pile up, then I start looking for buying opportunities. When people REALLY think things are over, the markets are tanked, and everyone's sending you the doom and gloom articles from "financial experts," is typically a good time to consider going back in to the market.
 
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headduck

Steelhead
I really enjoy this thread.

Different approach myself, but one that many have shaken their head at just the same.

As far as I've seen it... each generation has its challenges and it's never been easy to live the 'easy life.'

Nor is there a guarantee you'll even make it that far... or be in good health if you get there.
 

SurfnFish

Legend
Forum Supporter
Our retirement strategy consisted of maxing our 401K's,once we could afford to do so, and leveraging real estate, starting with a trashed rental the frustrated owned was willing to self-finance for 5% down, interest only payments for five years..spent a month of weekends and after work evenings making it right, rented it for five years, obtaining a conventional loan at year two to pay off the owner, sold it during a peak, invested the profit in a 6% money market fund, when the market sagged a few years later found another dog in a more upscale neighborhood...rinse and repeat multiple times over the next 25 years. Add in the profits made when we sold personal homes, often just to take our tax free profits, and we were able to retire earlier than most into a modest, debt free life.
Real estate will always hit a sag, then rebound to a new high....the numbers change, the game doesn't.
 

headduck

Steelhead
Our retirement strategy consisted of maxing our 401K's,once we could afford to do so, and leveraging real estate, starting with a trashed rental the frustrated owned was willing to self-finance for 5% down, interest only payments for five years..spent a month of weekends and after work evenings making it right, rented it for five years, obtaining a conventional loan at year two to pay off the owner, sold it during a peak, invested the profit in a 6% money market fund, when the market sagged a few years later found another dog in a more upscale neighborhood...rinse and repeat multiple times over the next 25 years. Add in the profits made when we sold personal homes, often just to take our tax free profits, and we were able to retire earlier than most into a modest, debt free life.
Real estate will always hit a sag, then rebound to a new high....the numbers change, the game doesn't.
That's what I'm talking about.

I bit outside the box. Builds on itself. Leverage sweat and know-how.

The waiting til the right time really pushes the patience though.

Good model, and not for all.
 

HauntedByWaters

Life of the Party

The U.S. Treasury Yield-Curve Recession Indicator Is Flashing Red​

Yield-curve inversion is at its most extreme since the 1981-82 recession.


Uh oh! Time to batten down the financial hatches! GenY and GenZ will soon get to experience their first severe and lengthy recession. Even Bezos is cautioning folks and small business to cut spending and strengthen their finances ahead of 2023.

This post reads smugly AF. You must be a lot of fun on a fishing boat…
 

Robert Engleheart

Life of the Party
Forum Supporter
Defined benefit pensions are not a thing of the past; skilled trade unions, state, local, federal government, UPS, railroads, others I can’t think of at the moment. I was a Union Ironworker and a construction superintendent/manager/director for twenty years in each world. The skilled trades are welcoming apprentices and the future looks pretty bright given the infrastructure bill signed last year. There are drawbacks, like in any other job. One has to be willing to travel or commute long distances in some cases. I had to leave my just built dream home on a lake with a view of snow capped mountains 6 miles from the Kenai and other great fishing. It paid off over time and that decision led to me being able to retire before 60 with an income equal to my pay and lifetime health insurance for the wife and me.
when I moved to California at 33 years of age the Union had a mandatory annuity deduction from your pay of $0.25/hour. Over 10 years that increased to $2.50 hr. When I moved into civil service I took that $80K and put it into a 401K and every raise I got a portion went into the 401. In 2006 I was making enough to contribute the maximum allowable and rolled the mutual fund heavy 401 into Index funds and watched it grow while a lot of people were panicking and selling. Buying opportunities exist today, diversify and hold.
I am blessed, but also sacrificed in order to be where I am.
 

TicTokCroc

Sunkist and Sudafed
I'm laughing with you, not at you. I didn't start earning a decent salary until my 40s. I'm 52 now and trying to build up my 401K, but there is not nearly enough in it. My hope is that the stocks in the 401K that I getting cheap now will take off sometime before I retire, whenever that is.

But I was young while I was young, traveled around the country, lived out of my truck, fished a lot, got in good trouble, and had a great time. I don't regret that. Come to think of it, I wondn't mind going back to that dirtbag lifestyle in retirement. Not sure my wife is on board with that plan, though.
That's me and my coppicing retirement plan, I wish I could of afforded the mule option too.
 

Coach Potter

Life of the Party
Forecasting what one will need when they retire is a crap shoot at best. For example, I worked at the Lazy B for 35 years. I was making way more up until I retired than when I got married in 1982. BUT I was actually making less. TYVM for inflation! Taking my salary in 1982 and adjusting for Cost Of Living my 'purchasing power' was 10% less in current dollars. Social Security is not the answer - for sure. Saving more than Cost Of Living adjustments may be a better way to go. Not sure who can do that but if one does not set a target, one will never know...
I hear your sentiment but I disagree with you on the first sentence. I can see how you might feel that way but coming up with a “pretty dang close” number isn’t very hard when yo spend most of your time doing just that.
 

krusty

We're on the Road to Nowhere...
Forum Supporter
I have known quite a few people who retired early (or with insufficient funds) that did not adequately consider the impact of inflation upon their retirement nest-egg. The 'Rule of 72' is useful to fully understand the insidious effect of inflation. For example; a nominal inflation rate of 3.0% will result in halving the purchasing power of a static nest-egg in 24 years. Throw in a few years of hyper-inflation (and some of us old farts lived through that extremely dismal episode) and you have a retirement age train wreck. Even those lucky enough to retire with a defined benefit pension with a COLA will likely find the COLA doesn't keep up with inflation.

It's also important to look at mortality tables. People often assume that the average lifespan is an indicator of how many years they'll likely live, when in fact mortality, on average, is substantially affected by current age in an unexpected manner. For example, a 65 year old American male has a relatively high probability of living another 18 years (for a 65 year old female it's almost an additional 3 years beyond that of a male). YMMV.

The trick is, of course, to not retire too early, have sufficient accumulated financial resources to weather the ravages of inflation until the big dirt nap beckons, a portfolio generating an adequate rate of return to offset inflation and avoiding discretionary debt....all of which are quite boring, endlessly challenging, and mundane compared to anticipation of a big crypto score or great night at a casino.
 
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SurfnFish

Legend
Forum Supporter
Little has been said about how you spend those working years, by far the biggest chunk of life.
Having the best retirement plan on earth doesn't mean squat if you're unhappy while working towards it, much less if misfortune tags you with an early passing.
Once accepting the inevitability and utter randomness of death, it pretty much put's everything into perspective...plan for tommorrow, live for today.
 

jasmillo

}=)))*>
Forum Supporter
Little has been said about how you spend those working years, by far the biggest chunk of life.
Having the best retirement plan on earth doesn't mean squat if you're unhappy while working towards it, much less if misfortune tags you with an early passing.
Once accepting the inevitability and utter randomness of death, it pretty much put's everything into perspective...plan for tommorrow, live for today.

I agree for the most part. There’s a happy medium though IMO. Always good to be prepared for the future. I did not pursue something I really enjoyed so I would have significantly more financial security. That said, no regrets. Not the field I intended to get in my a big enough company and a complex enough industry that there are always problems to solve and that’s really what keeps me engaged in my work. Point being, if you are in a work situation that is not a true love, look for segments or types of work within that industry keep you engaged. Good for your mental health and your career.

Also, have some fun while your young and able!!
 

krusty

We're on the Road to Nowhere...
Forum Supporter
It's tough working a job you absolutely love but end up shopping for Alpo sandwich spread in your retirement years....but of course one might elect to remain in that job 'til death do you part.

One of the silliest boomer mantras was "Do what you love and the money will follow". 😀
 
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