a non-political climate change thread

[Jim in Anacortes]

After agreeing that the climate is changing and then agreeing that "fossil fuel" use may be partially to blame, the adults in the room can discuss the matter intelligently. All the previous "doomsday" predictions have proven to be laughable. The "informative" signs at Glacier National Park had to be removed because they were so ironically incorrect about the glacier movement in full view of the tourists. IMHO all Americans should be very skeptical regarding the huge "transfer of wealth" centered around "climate change". Will that transfer of money change the Earth's climate? Of course not. In the name of "climate change" we have embarked on a fool's folly, that will do nothing to "cool our planet",, but will certainly make our enemies far more powerful, and just as certainly, rob our children of the American dream and all the freedom that we have thus far enjoyed. But hey, maybe after 50 years of suffering we might cool our planet by one tenth of one degree. Yahoooo for the new green deal!... Our youngsters are going to suffer for this foolishness,,,,.Talk about "taxation without representation" to an American that was born yesterday....those are the Americans that will inherit the poverty from our recklessness regarding "climate change"... that recklessness is making a few people extremely rich... and is not effecting our weather in any significant way.

 

[Flymph]

The problem is just who is going to do this "save the planet." Should we tax ourselves into financial oblivion and make wholesale environmental laws to restrict our industries while other countries, specifically China, goes along its merry path.

Are we going to ban the sale of any product made in China until they get on board?

The root issue here is that while we all share one planet far too many are thinking that the US can just fix this. And that is just not accurate.

As the 2nd biggest contributor to Global Warming we need to do our share. I believe there will be plenty of jobs in a Greener society making a necessary transition. Industries are already seeing the Green Writing on the wall and realize they don't have a choice.

I believe China is on a one way road to self destruction because of massive overpopulation and being the world's biggest contributor to Global Warming. China is much more interested in the US polarizing toward a Populist Autocracy at the expense of Democracy. We can't let this happen!

As to your last sentence; those other countries you are talking about contribute waaaaay less than the US to Global Warming and they want us to act responsibly.

 

[Xoxo]

@_WW_ My husband worked from home for over two years and retired just last July. Had he not worked from home i think we would have thought we needed to move to a larger place. But it turned out to be great practice for retirement, knowing we could both exist in 1000 sq feet. (Hence my introducting #4 into my ‘legislation’). We didn’t really want to move but were worried about how we could both be retired in a smaller place.

 

[Capt Insano Emeritis]

It's an interesting theory but far more complicated.

The best way to detect changes in the output of the sun — versus changes in the radiation reaching the earth’s surface through clouds, smoke, dust, or pollution — is by taking readings from space.
This is a job for satellites. According to the World Radiation Center, there has been no increase in solar irradiance since at least 1978, when satellite observations began. This means that for the last thirty plus years, while the temperature has been rising the fastest, the sun has not changed.

Thanks for offering some science and not some political crap.

A simple pie recipe of picked cherries

 

[Jim in Anacortes]

A perfect example of how "climate change" was used to enrich fat cats, and not save the planet from "climate change" is the company called Solyndra. They got 535 million bucks from tax payers to develop new green energy. They lost 528 million bucks and closed up shop. No muss no fuss, just a few more fat cats laughing their way to the bank to cash their "climate change checks". Not one single effect on the Earth's weather. Not one single person held accountable for the waisted money,....Ironically, Solyndra is just peanuts compared to the scams going on right now.

 

[JACKspASS]

@Salmo_g I rest my case

 

[Capt Insano Emeritis]

After agreeing that the climate is changing and then agreeing that "fossil fuel" use may be partially to blame, the adults in the room can discuss the matter intelligently. All the previous "doomsday" predictions have proven to be laughable. The "informative" signs at Glacier National Park had to be removed because they were so ironically incorrect about the glacier movement in full view of the tourists. IMHO all Americans should be very skeptical regarding the huge "transfer of wealth" centered around "climate change". Will that transfer of money change the Earth's climate? Of course not. In the name of "climate change" we have embarked on a fool's folly, that will do nothing to "cool our planet",, but will certainly make our enemies far more powerful, and just as certainly, rob our children of the American dream and all the freedom that we have thus far enjoyed. But hey, maybe after 50 years of suffering we might cool our planet by one tenth of one degree. Yahoooo for the new green deal!... Our youngsters are going to suffer for this foolishness,,,,.Talk about "taxation without representation" to an American that was born yesterday....those are the Americans that will inherit the poverty from our recklessness regarding "climate change"... that recklessness is making a few people extremely rich... and is not effecting our weather in any significant way.

You are writing the synopsis before the body of the analysis. Do nothing or tackle the problem.

 

[SurfnFish]

how about a humor break..

 

[Brian Miller]

There is nothing grey about solar maximus! It exists and has existed as long as the solar system and warms the Earth as the orb gets closer to the sun and cools as it drifts further away. The cycle has been confirmed repeatedly in the geological record along with the warming and cooling periods that correspond with the cycle.

What is grey about that?

Dave

The Solar maximus is the regular period of greatest solar activity - sunspots and flares - during the Sun's 11-year *maximum solar activity* cycle. I track the solar number (sunspots) and solar flare values each day in my HF radio station log. A solar maximus cycle did begin back in late spring-early summer that has been causing some real challenges with the national ECOM organization I serve with because of the frequencies allocated to us.

Solar activity does create challenges with HF-EHF communications networks but apparently not global temperatures:

This Georgia State University research shows though there is an apparent "correlation between solar activity and temperature, even though the peaks are offset. But when the last few years of data are included, the curves diverge and severely weaken the case for the driving of temperature by this measure of solar activity."

Correlation of global temperature with solar activity

NASA apparently doesn't believe the short term cycles of solar activity has much effect on long term climate change-global warming.

Sun: Facts - NASA Science

From our vantage point on Earth, the Sun may appear like an unchanging source of light and heat in the sky. But the Sun is a dynamic star, constantly changing

www.nasa.gov

However "Sustained changes in solar radiance – that is changes that occur over decades or centuries – could potentially have an effect on Earth's climate system, which is why such information is included, along with a variety of other natural and human-driven influences, in climate models."

This paper appears to generally be in agreement

The Sun and Climate - USGS.gov​

"enough evidence exists to support the hypothesis of Denton and Karlén (1973) that solar cycles, as recorded in the 14C variations, may be empirical indicators of paleoclimates. Cycles in sedimentary records with periodicities similar to those of solar cycles do not mean causation. The challenge to geologists and atmospheric scientists is to test these correlations with reasonable models of how solar cycles could affect the atmosphere and geologic processes at the surface of the Earth."

Even the Cliff Mass article's Average Mean Temperature chart showing temperature observations over the last 90 years at a rural weather station in NE WA (Lind) with no proximal development or population growth during that period does show a steady increase of 2.4°. That seems to agree with other studies.

Heatwaves in the Northwest: Are Extreme Heat Events Increasing Rapidly?

This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics

cliffmass.blogspot.com

90 years is a tiny blip of climatological time. Is a mean temperature increase of 2.4° at a rural NE WA weather station during last 90 year period of modern global population growth and industrialization meaningful for climate change projections?

 

[headduck]

I thought Solyndra was actually pretty good. Market wasnt ready for mass PV adoption (still not there) let alone a novel application that required more than just bolting on... great for flat roof retrofit. The story is more complex than presented. I was really disappointed as I thought it was a pretty good application. The high profile didnt help the optics, for sure.

But point taken... this cash will spur a "Green Rush"... and...

Folks gonna get rich and lots of bad ideas are gonna get paid.

They already do without the flood of cash, sold on naive hope and lack of basic sciencetific education.

Dont think throwing out the baby with bathwater makes sense though.

There are not many options for most people which are limited to choices at home, transportation, and what we buy.

If the general homeowner/everyday Joe can be encouraged (incentivised- cause all that matters is $$), a real difference can be made both in attitude and impact.

Many hands make light work and people take pride in doing well, if not only for the sake of the Jones'.

As far as china and India, they'll do what they do, but doesnt mean we shouldnt try to be better. Just like the shitty coworker doesnt force you to be bad at your job... or maybe they do...?

 

[Dr. Magill]

There is nothing grey about solar maximus! It exists and has existed as long as the solar system and warms the Earth as the orb gets closer to the sun and cools as it drifts further away. The cycle has been confirmed repeatedly in the geological record along with the warming and cooling periods that correspond with the cycle.

What is grey about that?

D

The grey is the part that doesn’t fit the narrative and is difficult to plug in so it is often ignored

 

[Capt Insano Emeritis]

The sun
The earth,and its protective atmosphere
The greenhouse gases and their balance always fluctuating,
That is our light source, our protective blanket. All of that has been monitored and measured. What we seem to ignore collectively is what we know harms our blankie. It has holes in it to mend. Its kinda important. You can’t measure a single source and base your opinion on that. Yup the sun still works. This stuff has been known a long time in our blip of existence. The way we busy ourselves, strip resources and covert it and throw it away manipulate recycle all these economic generators uses other resources to transport modify, burn and bury. I mean hell we are consuming and modifying the very orb that has made us be… we. How can one deny that? One complex formula creates another and so on. Exponential. The earth has a virus and it is from within its inhabitants

 

[SurfnFish]

The sun
The earth,and its protective atmosphere
The greenhouse gases and their balance always fluctuating,
That is our light source, our protective blanket. All of that has been monitored and measured. What we seem to ignore collectively is what we know harms our blankie. It has holes in it to mend. Its kinda important. You can’t measure a single source and base your opinion on that. Yup the sun still works. This stuff has been known a long time in our blip of existence. The way we busy ourselves, strip resources and covert it and throw it away manipulate recycle all these economic generators uses other resources to transport modify, burn and bury. I mean hell we are consuming and modifying the very orb that has made us be… we. How can one deny that? One complex formula creates another and so on. Exponential. The earth has a virus and it is from within its inhabitants

to the bone...

 

[Mossback]

There is nothing grey about solar maximus! It exists and has existed as long as the solar system and warms the Earth as the orb gets closer to the sun and cools as it drifts further away. The cycle has been confirmed repeatedly in the geological record along with the warming and cooling periods that correspond with the cycle.

What is grey about that?

Dave

What you are describing is not 'solar maximum', that is a sunspot cycle, an about 11 year cycle of sunspots that increase solar irradiation by about .07% .
What you described is the perihelion/aphelion cycle, and the fact is the earth is cooler when closest to the sun, not warmer as you stated. Earth comes closest to the Sun every year around January 3. It is farthest from the Sun every year around July 4.
In fact, say climate scientists, northern summer in July when the Sun is more distant than usual is a bit warmer than the southern hemisphere summer when the Earth is closer to the Sun.

Essentially nothing is that post is factual.

Why Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles Can't Explain Earth's Current Warming – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. Current news and data streams about global warming and climate change from NASA.

climate.nasa.gov

 

[SurfnFish]

my point about China, India and Third world countries is while we can and should do everything we can on a personal, local level, it will not dent the very real impacts of those countries expanding industrialsation which is increasing, not decreasing the heat load.
And here in the US, because of intransient climate change deniers fighting tooth and nail to block bills and funding, we have yet to see a coordinated all hands federal focus on identifying the most critical areas and infrastructure at risk, and the development and funding of offsetting mitigation plans.
And whereas private industry will build and drive the engine of Green technologies, it will be focused on technologies that can be sold. The required massive infrastructure projects that can protect water sources and seashore communities can only come the tax-payers. And to date, those tax-payers are always in line behind the billionaires and corporations who keep politicans in office through their shell donations simply so they can protect their absurdly low tax rates.

 

[ifsteve]

As the 2nd biggest contributor to Global Warming we need to do our share. I believe there will be plenty of jobs in a Greener society making a necessary transition. Industries are already seeing the Green Writing on the wall and realize they don't have a choice.

I believe China is on a one way road to self destruction because of massive overpopulation and being the world's biggest contributor to Global Warming. China is much more interested in the US polarizing toward a Populist Autocracy at the expense of Democracy. We can't let this happen!

As to your last sentence; those other countries you are talking about contribute waaaaay less than the US to Global Warming and they want us to act responsibly.

Nowhere did I suggest we shouldn't do anything either individually or as a nation. What I am suggesting is that we do things smartly and not be hypocritical about it.

 

[Chadk]

In thinking about this, a real world example that I experienced personally came to mind. Back in the 1980s, I was an USAF law enforcement officer stationed in the Philippines. There was a saying about theft of property on both Clark AB and Subic Naval Base: Everything is already stolen, they just haven’t figured out how to get it off the base yet. Indeed thefts of government property was a big issue. So a program was initiated to recruit and pay confidential sources to facilitate the recovery of stolen property. It worked well from the standpoint that the more we paid, the more property we recovered. Unfortunately, it didn’t deter thefts, but instead incentivized them. Over the few years I participated in the program thefts increased dramatically as did recoveries. The bad guys had developed an effective scheme. It really didn’t matter what they stole, even if it had no value, they got paid when the property was recovered. It took several years for officials to figure out the incentives were having the opposite effect. When we stopping paying sources for property recovery, property theft dropped precipitously.

Be aware of the “Cobra Effect” as it is real.

Great story. Reminds me of the so called "gun buyback programs". People turning in trash, fake, toy, BB, and broken guns for cash to buy good working guns. Hey, but at least they did SOMETHING!! lol

 

[Brian Miller]

The grey is the part that doesn’t fit the narrative and is difficult to plug in so it is often ignored

I am dealing with the impact of the beginning of another "11 year solar maximus" cycle on HF comms over a 700KM radius 4-5 days a week. The solar activity values from mid-spring up until about 3 weeks ago were the highest I've seen over the 7 year period I've been involved with ECOM. It is real. I mentioned some research-analysis done by GSU, government agencies, and Cliff Mass in my previous post that appear to say that solar activity may have some impact effect on climate-global temperature, but causation has not been proven.

The Solar maximus is the regular period of greatest solar activity - sunspots and flares - during the Sun's 11-year *maximum solar activity* cycle. I track the solar number (sunspots) and solar flare values each day in my HF radio station log. A solar maximus cycle did begin back in late spring-early summer that has been causing some real challenges with the national ECOM organization I serve with because of the frequencies allocated to us.

Solar activity does create challenges with HF-EHF communications networks but apparently not global temperatures:

This Georgia State University research shows though there is an apparent "correlation between solar activity and temperature, even though the peaks are offset. But when the last few years of data are included, the curves diverge and severely weaken the case for the driving of temperature by this measure of solar activity."

Correlation of global temperature with solar activity

NASA apparently doesn't believe the short term cycles of solar activity has much effect on long term climate change-global warming.

Sun: Facts - NASA Science

From our vantage point on Earth, the Sun may appear like an unchanging source of light and heat in the sky. But the Sun is a dynamic star, constantly changing

www.nasa.gov

However "Sustained changes in solar radiance – that is changes that occur over decades or centuries – could potentially have an effect on Earth's climate system, which is why such information is included, along with a variety of other natural and human-driven influences, in climate models."

This paper appears to generally be in agreement

The Sun and Climate - USGS.gov​

"enough evidence exists to support the hypothesis of Denton and Karlén (1973) that solar cycles, as recorded in the 14C variations, may be empirical indicators of paleoclimates. Cycles in sedimentary records with periodicities similar to those of solar cycles do not mean causation. The challenge to geologists and atmospheric scientists is to test these correlations with reasonable models of how solar cycles could affect the atmosphere and geologic processes at the surface of the Earth."

Even the Cliff Mass article's Average Mean Temperature chart showing temperature observations over the last 90 years at a rural weather station in NE WA (Lind) with no proximal development or population growth during that period does show a steady increase of 2.4°. That seems to agree with other studies.

Heatwaves in the Northwest: Are Extreme Heat Events Increasing Rapidly?

This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics

cliffmass.blogspot.com

90 years is a tiny blip of climatological time. Is a mean temperature increase of 2.4° at a rural NE WA weather station during last 90 year period of modern global population growth and industrialization meaningful for climate change projections?

I do understand this concern...

As a retired chem eng who was our companies energy manager the last 5 years of my career I will offer a thought based on first hand experience.

Whenever looking at a scientific review (and the subject doesn't matter just in this case we are talking climate change) make sure to dig into where the funding came from to pay for the research behind the review. It is very easy to formulate your research and subsequent results to give credence to the position one wants to take.

For example, lets say the Department of Energy is funding your research. I can guarantee you that the research is not going to say that climate change isn't a significant issue. They will paint a bad picture and guess what the result is? More funding to do more research. Like wise if the funding is provided by say Exxon Oil don't expect to see a result saying climate change is bad and man caused.

but the 90 year analysis of temperature done by Cliff Mass; perceived by some as biased towards and even labeled a shill of "big oil" because he doesn't agree with their climate change projection timeline, shows there has been a steady rise in temperature of 2.4° at a rural NE WA weather station with no proximal population growth or development (no change in the station's environment) over the last 90 year period of modern global population growth and industrialization that also coincides with the last 9 solar cycles. So *in addition* to my earlier question...

1. Is a mean temperature increase of 2.4° at a rural NE WA weather station during the last 90 year period of modern global population growth and industrialization meaningful for a *global* climate change projection?
2. *If so, and if...

my point about China, India and Third world countries is while we can and should do everything we can on a personal, local level, it will not dent the very real impacts of those countries expanding industrialsation which is increasing

What immediate commitment, response, and investment is appropriate for every American to bear due to that 2.4° rise in mean temperature over last 90 year period?*

 

[dflett68]

I’ll challenge your contention (although unstated) that humans are not part of nature or natural actIvity. The human locus of species have been around for some 6 Million years. As a species (as all species do), humans have basic needs to survive as a species.
View attachment 27327
Throughout the history of the human species (a very innovative one at that) we’ve invented and adapted all manner of things to meet the needs of the species. Birds build nests to breed and raise progeny. Is that natural? Humans build houses for shelter. Is that natural?

I would commend the BBC series Connections to you which documents how humans have invented and adapted technologies through the centuries to meet those basic needs. Seems to me like humans are part and parcel of nature and thus just another element of natural activity on earth.

premise: we're part of nature
premise: every part of nature must adapt to meet it's needs
conclusion: any human adaptation is natural
implication: humans aren't changing the climate

premise: birds build nests
premise: humans build houses
conclusion: birds and humans are the same relative to how they pursue their needs
implication: humans aren't changing the climate

brilliant

we're part of nature, of course. but most of that six million years has been spent in reluctant acceptance that being part of something means being smaller than that thing and therefore choosing to cooperate with and within it. in the last few hundred years, 1st world mastery of the lower order needs of maslow's heirarchy has involved a radical shift in our integration and cooperation with the nature we are part of. that's changing it. the climate systems we stepped into six million years ago took the prior 4.54 billion years to evolve. we ourselves evolved within those systems. then we figured out how to guarantee layer 1 (largely by burning things) and start breeding like rabbits within the last few hundred years. now the 1st world uses those same levers to pursue the higher order needs as if they were as essential as breathing. these spikes in "adaptation" over a few hundred years don't exactly dovetail with the measured and incremental process it took to establish the climate cycles of our planet over 5b years. the idea that they could disrupt that balance is highly logical. the idea that they wouldn't is as nonsensical as trying to suggest we're just doing what birds do so, really, if you think about it, we're in perfect harmony with nature.

 

[dflett68]

Biggest Contributors To Global Warming In The World By Country​

Rank	Country	Global Total (%)
1	China	27.51
2	United States	14.75
3	India	6.43
4	Russia	4.86
5	Japan	2.99
6	Brazil	2.25
7	Germany	1.98
8	Indonesia	1.64
9	Canada	1.63
10	Mexico	1.62

Interesting this, in a time when there are those who clammer for more US Fossil Fuel extraction so we can keep up with, Guess Who, the worse of the worse. If we did a little math with the chart and reduced percents of contributions down to that, let's say of Mexico's, that would be a reduction in of slightly over 50% of the World's contributions to Global Warming. I dare say that would produce a much better world to live in than one we have created for our children to live in!

Also interesting to hear those who scream, "Why should we, when they" when you look at this chart??? Except for China, "they" are the ones looking at the US as a bunch of populist pigs spewing out more than double their emissions.

Here is fun fact, put the Russian land mass and population along with the population mass of India. Add these two countries' contributions together and you still get less than the US!

Let's assume for the sake of mathematics that when this chart says contributors we are talking mostly about carbon emissions. If we reduce the US figure by 40% that would equal about 8.85 and we would still be the second worse contributor in the world. Oh yes, it's a start in the right direction but not near enough!

Let's say someone has metastatic cancer and has X to live. You tell the patient you have a new medication that will reduce their cancer by 40% over the next 8 years. Would that patient happily say, it's a start in the right direction!

this looks like a good chart for those who feel one person cannot make a difference - since it clearly indicates that on a per capita basis we are the biggest hitters.