Upper Colombia/Snake summer steelhead forecasts

[DerekWhipple]

Gotta wonder why steelhead are in the toilet and yet we had (relatively) great coho returns last year. Even though coho are hit heavy in mixed stock coastal fisheries which have next to zero effect on steelhead. Easy to make a superficial (and likely wrong) assumption that steelhead head out into the North Pacific and just "disappear".

I watched a ODFW presentation around the time of the Deschutes framework being setup where they said Columbia summers likely go waaaaay out West in the Pacific, where conditions haven't been as good. Don't coho hang closer to North America? Maybe we should start experimenting with a coho/steelhead hybrid, or imprint them to follow coho instead of going out to a food desert! I wish there were satellite trackers they could put on kelts that would be small enough to not hinder their survival, just to see exactly where they go.

I'm sure steelhead do get picked up in other fisheries out there, but they don't school, so I also subscribe to the theory that there just isn't enough for them to eat in the ocean.

 

[Smalma]

Our steelhead do migrate west and north into the Pacific some of go west of the international dateline. Most of the coho stay along the coast and the continental shelf.

Part of the issue with the steelhead is that with a warmer ocean their forage area is pushed further north into the Gulf of Alaska limiting their feeding area and the amount of forage. The predating of steelhead smolts by various marine mammals is also an issue. One tagging of wild Skagit winter steelhead (Puget Sound) found that 1/2 of the smolts were dead in 6 days of reaching the salt.

BTW The information provided at NOF had a Columbia River coho forecast of 303,800 compared to the estimated return in 2024 of 756,800.

If you want to find some of this information, go to WDFW's NOF page. From the meeting calendar all the information provided at a given meeting is available by visiting the specific meeting - in this case the forecast meeting. A link to the list of materials provided for the meeting is available. Just scroll down the list for what information you want.

Curt

 

[charles sullivan]

To Smalma's point regading marine mammals in the Salish Sea, this group is trting to get a handle on it and solutions: https://lltk.org/project/salish-sea-marine-survival-project/

 

[Rob Allen]

". I say back-of-the-envelope because the model uses more assumptions than facts, so it's accuracy is not reliable"

Another way of saying we don't know.

 

[Yard Sale]

Unless there is more recent model parameters that I haven't heard about, wild steelhead runsize estimates are based on combined parent brood year escapement estimates for the various age classes X the average of the 5 most recent StS (Spawner to Spawner) value. Alternatively, if there are reliable estimates of the outmigrating smolt population, then that is multiplied by the average of the most recent 5 SARs (smolt to adult return) rates. I've seen experimental estimates that applied a spring coastal upwelling factor in addtion, but I'm not aware if that is in general use.

High seas drift net catch data - if we had it consistently - is likely too random and too insignificant to be used as an additional multiplier.

Rob's suggestion of using aircraft carriers would truly constitute gov't. waste and abuse. Coast Guard patrol boats are more than up to the task if the ROE (rules of engagement) are modified per Rob's Executive Order. Interceptions by high seas drift nets as the proximate cause of the reductions in steelhead run sizes should be categorized with conspiracy theories. It's not that the drift nets don't encounter steelhead; they do. And it's not like we don't know anything about the numbers of boats fishing on the high seas; we do. Global Fishing Watch uses satellites to monitor how much of the world's oceans are being fished, and to some extent, by whom. My take home message is that steelhead are not being targeted in the ocean. There are too few of them to make that worth the effort. WDFW did a "back of the envelope" estimate back in the 1990s when we had a lot less global ocean fishing data than we now have. I say back-of-the-envelope because the model uses more assumptions than facts, so it's accuracy is not reliable. But there was a lot more pirate fishing effort then than there is now, and that estimate was that high seas fishing might account for as much as a 3% reduction in steelhead populations, meaning that high seas fishing isn't the bogeyman that could simply be eliminated by having the Navy sink foreign fishing boats.

Super interesting! Thanks.

 

[Nick Clayton]

Is there large numbers of commercially caught steelhead coming to market in places in the world anyone is aware of?

Just curious, as it seems that if some of these vessels are catching them in numbers they'd either need to find a market for it, or just dump it immediately. Id have to think it wouldn't be hard to sell it. So if these boats are catching large numbers of steelhead at times, what are they doing with it?

Genuinely curious.

I get asked about steelhead encounters on the ocean all the time, and I always have to admit I know very little about the damn things once they are in the salt. In my entire life I've caught one steelhead in the salt.

One odd thing I can say....of all the steelhead I've ever seen encountered in the salt, Ive seen/heard of more encounters offshore by tuna anglers than anything. Go figure. Gotta be a bit chaotic when a tuna boat hooks a silver fish that starts tail walking all over the place lol.

 

[Matt B]

Is there large numbers of commercially caught steelhead coming to market in places in the world anyone is aware of?

Just curious, as it seems that if some of these vessels are catching them in numbers they'd either need to find a market for it, or just dump it immediately. Id have to think it wouldn't be hard to sell it. So if these boats are catching large numbers of steelhead at times, what are they doing with it?

Genuinely curious.

I get asked about steelhead encounters on the ocean all the time, and I always have to admit I know very little about the damn things once they are in the salt. In my entire life I've caught one steelhead in the salt.

One odd thing I can say....of all the steelhead I've ever seen encountered in the salt, Ive seen/heard of more encounters offshore by tuna anglers than anything. Go figure. Gotta be a bit chaotic when a tuna boat hooks a silver fish that starts tail walking all over the place lol.

In the rare instances that researchers get funding to analyze DNA of market fish, they always find some interesting things.

I've always figured that high seas fisheries that catch a bunch of shiny salmonids at the same time, especially ones that end up as canned salmon or some other suspect product, even the best-intentioned crews, they aren't keying out each individual fish and releasing the "bycatch." I've never laid eyes on it so I certainly don't know for sure, but it just seems like that shiny salmonid is gonna get processed along with all the other ones. I'm thinking especially of the massive international units can trawl or purse seine and process.