Guess I'll keep carpin

Ugh . . .was just looking these numbers up and then saw this post. That's a major middle finger to my late Sept/Oct plans for sure. I'd say Thanks for posting but it just sucked the joy right out of my morning. Every year about this time I (usually) start getting antsy for my Clearwater/Snake trips. Half the already pathetic 10yr average and I'll probably just go early to swing up some Smallies in the Snake and say Hi to a few old friends. ☠️😵‍💫
 
skyriver said:
Man, this is brutal.

View attachment 189542

I had some hope after last year's numbers.

This is even tougher to look at

View attachment 189543

Do we have any idea why? I mean, there's all the usual suspects, but damn. I sure don't have a clue.

I know one thing. My steelhead box is full, but the carp box needs a little work. Guess that's the new normal.
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I can't remember the last time I sat and tied a few steelhead flies. I used to LOVE doing so. I had hopes of meeting one of the forum members on a stretch of "local" this fall, probably won't happen.

Speaking of carp flies:
IMG_7862.jpeg
 
doublespey said:
Ugh . . .was just looking these numbers up and then saw this post. That's a major middle finger to my late Sept/Oct plans for sure. I'd say Thanks for posting but it just sucked the joy right out of my morning. Every year about this time I (usually) start getting antsy for my Clearwater/Snake trips. Half the already pathetic 10yr average and I'll probably just go early to swing up some Smallies in the Snake and say Hi to a few old friends. ☠️😵‍💫
Click to expand...
I know. Sorry man.
Between fall family travel plans and a busier than normal work schedule, my annual Klick & John Day trips were already in jeopardy. This doesn't help my motivation to make them happen.
I will say, 2019 was also a tough year for numbers, but I hooked fish. So I'm still motivated to make it happen. Water levels might be a bigger concern. Guess we'll see what the fall brings.
 
jeradjames said:
A lot of people have been saying because of the poor 2021 return
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ok, so 2021 and 2026 are connected ? i kind of shrugged off last year, until i realized the counts were waaaay up. so after that, i told myself that i was going to be serious this year.... and now we have this.
 
Oh man, yeah 2024 and 2025 were good returns.

Here's how 2026 is connected to 2021-
Adults returned in 2021
Those adults, regardless of years in the salt, will spawn in spring of 2022.
The eggs take a few months to hatch, still 2022.
Those juveniles will rear in the river for the rest of 2022, 2023 and often 2024.
A large portion will out-migrate in spring of 2024. 2022-2024 is their 2 years in the river.
They will either spend 1 year (1-salt) or 2 years (2-salt) in the ocean.
This means the 1-salt fish come back in the summer/fall of 2025.
The 2-salt fish come back in summer/fall of 2026.
So fall of 2026 means 1-salt fish from 2022 and 2-salt fish from 2021.

In general, most steelhead are 2-2s. Meaning they spend 2 years in freshwater (not counting the year they were spawned) and 2 years in the salt. John Day fish are mid-Columbia desert fish though so many do 3-1 or 3-2. If you catch a fish over 30" on the JD it's likely a 2-3 or 3-3 fish. I'm gonna guess most fish on the JD are 3-1 fish in the 22-26" range followed by 3-2 fish in the 25-29" range and the rare 3 salt fish over 30".

Maybe @Smalma can confirm at least my general info is correct. Haha!
 
What's weird is other rivers are "normal" (for the current age), or even a bit above normal in terms of numbers. Some of those are skamania fish, though. Lends credence to the "progeny of the worst year on record" theory.
 
July is done, 7,924 fish counted. Steelhead will close August 15th.

We need a bit over 15,000 wild fish to pass during the month of August. Looks like we need to average around 500-ish fish every day to have it re-open on September 15th.
 
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