Guess I'll keep carpin

Ugh . . .was just looking these numbers up and then saw this post. That's a major middle finger to my late Sept/Oct plans for sure. I'd say Thanks for posting but it just sucked the joy right out of my morning. Every year about this time I (usually) start getting antsy for my Clearwater/Snake trips. Half the already pathetic 10yr average and I'll probably just go early to swing up some Smallies in the Snake and say Hi to a few old friends. ☠️😵‍💫
 
skyriver said:
Man, this is brutal.

View attachment 189542

I had some hope after last year's numbers.

This is even tougher to look at

View attachment 189543

Do we have any idea why? I mean, there's all the usual suspects, but damn. I sure don't have a clue.

I know one thing. My steelhead box is full, but the carp box needs a little work. Guess that's the new normal.
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I can't remember the last time I sat and tied a few steelhead flies. I used to LOVE doing so. I had hopes of meeting one of the forum members on a stretch of "local" this fall, probably won't happen.

Speaking of carp flies:
IMG_7862.jpeg
 
doublespey said:
Ugh . . .was just looking these numbers up and then saw this post. That's a major middle finger to my late Sept/Oct plans for sure. I'd say Thanks for posting but it just sucked the joy right out of my morning. Every year about this time I (usually) start getting antsy for my Clearwater/Snake trips. Half the already pathetic 10yr average and I'll probably just go early to swing up some Smallies in the Snake and say Hi to a few old friends. ☠️😵‍💫
Click to expand...
I know. Sorry man.
Between fall family travel plans and a busier than normal work schedule, my annual Klick & John Day trips were already in jeopardy. This doesn't help my motivation to make them happen.
I will say, 2019 was also a tough year for numbers, but I hooked fish. So I'm still motivated to make it happen. Water levels might be a bigger concern. Guess we'll see what the fall brings.
 
jeradjames said:
A lot of people have been saying because of the poor 2021 return
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ok, so 2021 and 2026 are connected ? i kind of shrugged off last year, until i realized the counts were waaaay up. so after that, i told myself that i was going to be serious this year.... and now we have this.
 
Oh man, yeah 2024 and 2025 were good returns.

Here's how 2026 is connected to 2021-
Adults returned in 2021
Those adults, regardless of years in the salt, will spawn in spring of 2022.
The eggs take a few months to hatch, still 2022.
Those juveniles will rear in the river for the rest of 2022, 2023 and often 2024.
A large portion will out-migrate in spring of 2024. 2022-2024 is their 2 years in the river.
They will either spend 1 year (1-salt) or 2 years (2-salt) in the ocean.
This means the 1-salt fish come back in the summer/fall of 2025.
The 2-salt fish come back in summer/fall of 2026.
So fall of 2026 means 1-salt fish from 2022 and 2-salt fish from 2021.

In general, most steelhead are 2-2s. Meaning they spend 2 years in freshwater (not counting the year they were spawned) and 2 years in the salt. John Day fish are mid-Columbia desert fish though so many do 3-1 or 3-2. If you catch a fish over 30" on the JD it's likely a 2-3 or 3-3 fish. I'm gonna guess most fish on the JD are 3-1 fish in the 22-26" range followed by 3-2 fish in the 25-29" range and the rare 3 salt fish over 30".

Maybe @Smalma can confirm at least my general info is correct. Haha!
 
What's weird is other rivers are "normal" (for the current age), or even a bit above normal in terms of numbers. Some of those are skamania fish, though. Lends credence to the "progeny of the worst year on record" theory.
 
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