Wind Forecast Question

[Stonedfish]

For those that use wind Apps such as Windy, what do you find to be more accurate, HRRR or ECMWF?
The two forecasts always seem to vary, sometimes by quite a bit.
Thanks for your input.
SF

 

[G_Smolt]

I tend to look at several models (NAM, ECMWF, HRDPS) and see if there is agreement first...in SE AK, I have noticed the ECMWF model skewing towards the upper end of wind forecasts and the others being more median in their calls. For that reason, I tend to plan around the ECMWF and hope for the others.

If you dont use it already, the spotwx.com forecast has varying models with different spatial/temporal coverage. The HRDPS model has proven fairly solid in terms of localized, near-term weather for me.

 

[SeaRunner]

I don't know that I've found either to be more accurate. What I have resorted to doing is checking NOAA's NDBC buoy data the morning of a trip to see whether it is consistent with the forecast. I've avoided a couple unpleasant surprises since I started this routine.

 

[Nick Clayton]

I tend to do the same as Searunner. I look at the NOAA general zone forecast, the NOAA pinpoint forecast, and Windy. If they are all semi close, I go fishing. If one of those three is significantly different one way or another, then I start looking closer.

This last summer on the ocean there were many days when the pinpoint and Windy were quite different. Unfortunately I never noticed a trend of one being more accurate than the other. Makes an ocean weather call more difficult for sure.

I've never really played around with those two sources on Windy. I'll have to pay closer attention and see if I notice much difference.

 

[Bryan]

I checked in with NOAA/NDBC a couple weeks ago to get an update on the App they're working on.

Here is their reply: "We're working on that! We are overhauling our website at the moment to allow for better mobile viewing as well as working on syncing our data to an app that is currently in beta testing."

Cheers,

Bryan

 

[skyrise]

is it me or the convergence zone up here but the winds seem to change much more frequently here. Going from a south wind to a north wind even within one day.
I will look at that “windy” app.

 

[ifsteve]

I rely on windfinder, ventusky, and windy for planning everyday on the water. Down here on the gulf wind is a paramount factor driving where to launch from and where to fish. I have been using these apps for a number of years now and I have found for wind that NAM is the best model.

 

[RRSmith]

As Nick, G_Smolt and others have mentioned, every forecast model has strengths and weaknesses . The National Weather Service uses the best forecast tools available and seems to be trying to become more user friendly.

Regarding what's available on Windy, ECMWF aka "Euro" is a medium range forecast model which updates every 6 hours while the HRRR (stands for High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model updates hourly. Technically, the HRRR was designed for 'fine tuning" a forecast thus is considered to be the most accurate. The NAM (North American Model) should be considered as well - it's kind of a tweener between the Euro and HRRR as far as accuracy and updating is concerned.

When we are storm chasing on the Plains, we tend to lean pretty heavily on the HRRR and NAM models for "day of" and hourly forecasting. That approach seems to work okay for me on the Oregon Coast as well.