NFR Possible Lower Latitude Auroras this weekend

[RRSmith]

I started to post this under Stuff in the Sky but figured it might be better to reach a larger audience: Heads up for lower latitude northern lights this upcoming weekend. This weekend's geomagnetic storm watch has been upgraded from a G2 to a G4. A massive sunspot has hurled at least 4 CME's towards earth and NOAA is suggesting that at least some of these CME's could merge forming a Cannibal CME (good for sparking geomagnetic storms). A G4 storm means northern lights may be visible in parts California and other lower latitude states across the US.

Timing is everything with this setup. The forecast right now is for a May 11 arrival in the early evening on the West Coast but that of course could change.

Aurora forecast

Below you'll find the expected global geomagnetic conditions (Kp) and those for the middle and high latitudes (K-indices). These values indicate the expected geomagnetic activity for any given 3-hour period for the next three days. This is the fastest way to quickly find out what kind of geomagne...

www.spaceweatherlive.com

 

[Merle]

Sweet... we should have clear skies no clouds this weekend, plus it's not a work day so it's easier to stay up late to try to see the lights. Fingers crossed!

 

[Scott Salzer]

Thanks for that info. I have seen it twice from Washington. Once from Moses lake and once from Hood Canal.

 

[DanielOcean]

Thank you for the heads up!

 

[Gyrfalcon22]

I started to post this under Stuff in the Sky but figured it might be better to reach a larger audience: Heads up for lower latitude northern lights this upcoming weekend. This weekend's geomagnetic storm watch has been upgraded from a G2 to a G4. A massive sunspot has hurled at least 4 CME's towards earth and NOAA is suggesting that at least some of these CME's could merge forming a Cannibal CME (good for sparking geomagnetic storms). A G4 storm means northern lights may be visible in parts California and other lower latitude states across the US.

Timing is everything with this setup. The forecast right now is for a May 11 arrival in the early evening on the West Coast but that of course could change.

Aurora forecast

Below you'll find the expected global geomagnetic conditions (Kp) and those for the middle and high latitudes (K-indices). These values indicate the expected geomagnetic activity for any given 3-hour period for the next three days. This is the fastest way to quickly find out what kind of geomagne...

www.spaceweatherlive.com

: O

This being late Friday evening into early Saturday AM

 

[Matt Paluch]

The first of 7 CMEs has already hit. Tonight, tomorrow, and possibly the day after could be quite a show. Here's a picture from aurora that happened without as positive a forecast as we currently have.

 

[Smokey Bear]

The first of 7 CMEs has already hit. Tonight, tomorrow, and possibly the day after could be quite a show. Here's a picture from aurora that happened without as positive a forecast as we currently have.
View attachment 113669

Where and when was this picture taken?

 

[Brian Miller]

: O

This being late Friday evening into early Saturday AM
View attachment 113587

also in the Stuff in the Sky thread
Received this today from my HF ECOMM organization leader
"For widest distribution
SWPC ISSUES ITS FIRST G4 WATCH SINCE 2005
Further information concerning this event is available at the following link:
SWPC Issues Its First G4 Watch Since 2005 | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm Impacts
Power systems: Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.
Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, *HF radio propagation sporadic*, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)."

*The regional HF ECOMM net propagation was real poor today, lots of atypical "relays" needed*

 

[Chadk]

How likely do you think we are too see this tonight? We'll be driving over the pass around 9-9:30. Is that too early? Won't have much time to stick around and wait.

 

[RRSmith]

How likely do you think we are too see this tonight? We'll be driving over the pass around 9-9:30. Is that too early? Won't have much time to stick around and wait.

It's hard to know the exact time but I believe that the current G4 storm watch runs until midnight. If it's dark, look towards the north!

 

[Scott Salzer]

Chadk:

I heard 10:00 PM - 12:00. You'll probably have a better view as you approach Ellensburg than from the pass proper.

Good luck.

 

[Eastside]

May be other effects from the storm. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsi...l+Weather+Statement&lat=46.2857&lon=-119.2845

 

[Divad]

Nice moonlight hike in the woods. Maybe some lite traces so far. Now to see if we get lucky.

 

[Tallguy]

On the beach in Port Townsend. It's definitely here, though nothing colored yet.

 

[Tallguy]

I think when the moon drops in an hour or so, we might be in for an interesting evening. Definite organized hazy light above us.

 

[Divad]

Sky is doing some weird stuff. Starting up!

 

[Tallguy]

Amazing. I am near gasping. Go outside anywhere dark. I might be up all night

 

[ffb]

This is wild. Even with the neighbors and all their lights on.

 

[Zak]

Holy moly, they are fully out in Mill Creek!

 

[Divad]

All the beams travel up to a focal point between Leo’s tail and Arcturus. And that’s where I can see light dancing a lot.