Dept. of Ecology declares drought emergency for most of Washington state

[Wadin' Boot]

On the flipside just spent a week in Utah, their snow pack was big- the La Sal mountains pictured below were covered, plenty of snow on the road to Escalante, Bryce, and Mt Pennell near Lake Powell looked like Mt McKinley had been moved to the desert!

 

[Guy Gregory]

I am all for hoot owl restrictions.

View attachment 111029View attachment 111030

Pretty much everything north of the Lochsa is below average. Fortunately we had a warm winter, with about normal precip, so we got a lot of recharge to the water table here in Eastern Washington. It's not super, but it beats the last 3 years which have been grim to disastrous. Lake levels are up a bit, should be coming up more in the next weeks, and small water should be running for a while. Helps fish and wildlife a lot. But north of here, boy. not good. This may be another in a series of epic fire years in BC/Alberta.

Everything south, well, it's looking good. Wanna float the Owyhee? This looks like a pretty good year. And Cali/Colorado/AZ/Utah looks mighty good for snowpack and reservoir refilling, giving them boys time to fix their water supply rules of operation to approximate reality. And maybe rip out some cotton fields and almond groves.

 

[jact55]

After the last couple years, I'm starting to hate deep summer as much as winter. Couldn't leave my house without another fire inching close to my property. Basically lost a month of planned fishing, family visits and outings due to fire danger (very) close to home.
Feel this year will be more of the same.
But I still have my house, which some nearby residents can't say. So I can't complain.
Definelty more sensitive to it this spring, but my wooded property already feels dry in a way, not as lush as normal. Here we go....

 

[Stonedfish]

After the last couple years, I'm starting to hate deep summer as much as winter. Couldn't leave my house without another fire inching close to my property. Basically lost a month of planned fishing, family visits and outings due to fire danger (very) close to home.
Feel this year will be more of the same.
But I still have my house, which some nearby residents can't say. So I can't complain.
Definelty more sensitive to it this spring, but my wooded property already feels dry in a way, not as lush as normal. Here we go....

I’ve been there for a while. Summer is by far my least favorite season. Fall, winter, spring then summer in that order for me as far as favorite seasons. Not a fan of the smoke we’ve had in recent years either.
SF

 

[RCF]

PNW Smoke Map:

PNW Smoke Map

Shows current fires and air quality...

 

[jact55]

"Watch duty" app is a life saver if you have a fire close, or are just interested, highly recommended (with notifications on if in dry area). Shows locations, ample and quick updates, ect.

 

[RCF]

Is there a 'seeger effect' dance?

If so, let's set up a time to do it. But first @Shawn Seeger has to post a video of it so we can do it correctly.

 

[Zak]

"Watch duty" app is a life saver if you have a fire close, or are just interested, highly recommended (with notifications on if in dry area). Shows locations, ample and quick updates, ect.

Thank you! I just downloaded it.

 

[krusty]

Part of the problem is building residences in areas that are almost impossible to adequately respond to in a safe and effective manner. Residents in wildfire prone areas often expect and insist upon the same level of fire response that exists in an urban area.

 

[joefromchicago]

...and Oregon has good numbers all the way up to the Columbia.
And, they're predicting a bit more this weekend, middle of April and the spring runoff hasn't really even started yet.

 

[RCF]

Regarding wildfire smoke - contributes to 1,000's of deaths a year:

https://www.npr.org/2024/04/18/1245068810/wildfire-smoke-contributes-to-thousands-of-deaths-each-year-in-the-u-s

.

 

[Zak]

Most people probably know how to make a DIY home air filter with a 20" box fan and 20" furnace air filters, but in case you don't, here's the instructions. We have one in every in-use room when it is smoky outside.

https://deohs.washington.edu/sites/default/files/AirFilterInfographic_FINAL.pdf

 

[Bonefish Jack]

An interesting counterpoint from the very knowledgeable Cliff Mass:

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics

cliffmass.blogspot.com

 

[Merle]

An interesting counterpoint from the very knowledgeable Cliff Mass:

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics

cliffmass.blogspot.com

I've been checking his blog daily ever since the news story about the drought dropped, hoping he'd shed some levity on it. and he did, as usual.

 

[Dustin Chromers]

An interesting counterpoint from the very knowledgeable Cliff Mass:

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics

cliffmass.blogspot.com

Cliff is right. Government agencies have incentive to declare drought or states of emergency. This is not meant to discount the last few summers of abnormal fire and true drought activity.

 

[Matt B]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Fish, wildlife and people *will* be impacted by the snowpack deficit, if not already.
Where is Cliff's analysis of soil moisture and aquifer levels? How about streamflows, which are also low low low? https://waterdata.usgs.gov/wa/nwis/rt

edit: heck, even cliff's US precipitation map is based on modeled data, and from 1961 to 1990! All the old-timers around here keep saying how things have changed since then. Climate is often evaluated in 30-year cycles. Cliff is showing data from over 30 years ago! And statements about that outdated data like "We live in one of the wettest locations in the U.S. (see map). A region that possesses a very modest population considering the carrying capacity of the land and one that generally receives much more precipitation than we need or can use, with the surplus water surging out into the Pacific." lack a whole lot of nuance. All that alleged "surplus" water is absolutely doing work in the environment--the critters that live here evolved along with that hydrologic cycle.

Or how about this load from Cliff? "What about predicted forecast river levels at the end of summer (mid-September)? Around 80-90% for the Columbia and around 65-80% for the Yakima. Much higher for rivers in Oregon. Nothing serious." LOL great examples, Cliff. You picked the two most heavily managed and dammed rivers in the state. Let's see how the Stilly or nearly any other west side river is doing in mid-September 2024--I guaran-damn-tee you, none of us here will say it's "nothing serious" at that time. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

 

[krusty]

Cliff is right. Government agencies have incentive to declare drought or states of emergency. This is not meant to discount the last few summers of abnormal fire and true drought activity.

Indeed...nobody gets upset when things turn out a bit better than forecasts predict.

 

[Cabezon]

An interesting counterpoint from the very knowledgeable Cliff Mass:

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics

cliffmass.blogspot.com

I can't dispute that Professor Mass is well-qualified in this field. But he loves taking a contrarian stand and he is VERY good at sleight of hand. In my opinion, he is a "climate change minimalist" as I suspect that he knows that he would be considered a quack if he went total denial. His blog is good evidence of this perspective.
First, he states that there is No drought emergency from Everett to Tacoma; so, if you live in that area, you won't die of thirst - BFD. The source of electrical power for that area is NOT between Everett and Tacoma but the hydroelectric dams north and south.
Second, he states that the federal maps and the state declaration are at odd with the state declaration but that is horseSh!t. The federal map shows that the Cascade and Olympic Mountains are abnormally dry to moderately dry. Does it really matter for the rivers (and hydroelectric power and irrigation) that Moses Lake (sorry @Billy) is just fine? I know that he can read a map, so I know that he is deliberately spinning in his blog.
The reservoir situation is another red herring that is deployed by the professor. The filling of reservoirs is NOT a passive process. The operators can choose to release water or to retain water based on what they anticipate will the balance of upcoming supply and the future need. And unlike California where the reservoirs are large enough to retain multiple years supply of water, those in Washington don't even hold a year's supply. So, it is appropriate that the operators of Seattle's reservoirs have been storing extra water in anticipation of limited future supply. And the Yakima reservoirs are already behind their normal levels. And there isn't much snow to top them off by snow melt later in the summer. That current snow level is only 60-70% of normal this year. The Bureau of Reclamation has already indicated that junior water rights holder should expect only 2/3rds of their normal allotment. "Most agriculture should be fine" says the good professor, unless you happen to be one of those junior rights holders.
And he blows smoke up our ass with his discussion of projected summer river levels. The Yakima system will be at only 50-60% of normal flows. Northeast Washington will also experience 60-70% of normal flows. Add to that that the long-range forecast is for above normal temperatures this summer

and the rainfall below our already meager summer input

and you begin to wonder just what Mass' agenda really is. I see low river flows and high temperatures from these forecasts. That translates into warm rivers, stressed trout, and high risk of wild fire.
The time to issue warnings and begin planning contingencies is NOT when your house is on fire. Yes, maybe nothing untoward will happen this summer. But someone who isn't a "climate change minimalist" would look at the holistic picture. He ends his blog with the "boy who cried wolf" meme, but I would argue that he is playing "ostrich with his head in his @ss".
Steve

 

[Brian Miller]

An interesting counterpoint from the very knowledgeable Cliff Mass:

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics

cliffmass.blogspot.com

I believe it is good to have the contrast of a less dire prediction from someone who is particularly knowledgeable about PNW weather.
Post in thread '2024 Fishing Aspirations' https://pnwflyfishing.com/forum/index.php?threads/2024-fishing-aspirations.6807/post-159001
Back in December I opined from prior years' observations that the Summer of 2024 may become challenging around mid-July on small streams where I enjoy trout fishing. I expect a couple with lower elevation headwaters and larger streams with higher headwaters will give me safe wading access earlier than normal in June, fishing very well until mid to late-July. when fish will begin to congregate in the deepest holes they can find. Careless wading, an angler's silhouette, and a poor presentation will quickly put them down. However I know of one small, moderately high gradient tailwater that may actually offer better fishing conditions from August into September.

Hoot owl regs may be necessary. Besides being better for fish, it's good for fishing. However it does make my longer hike-in locations more difficult.

At any rate, am hoping to be able to get more stream fishing in this year than I was able to do in 2023.

 

[Guy Gregory]

Cliff generally is only concerned with water supply for Pugetopolis and irrigated agriculture. This year he notes, but generally sweeps past, the USBOR forecast in April for 62 percent of water for junior appropriators in the Yakima. Juniors are those with water rights having priority dates 1905 or later. Their gonna need to conserve all year because they'll be curtailed in late summer and without replacement water their trees or grapes will die. And strangely missing from his discussion is the Olympic Peninsula.

Note also in spite of the paucity of runoff expected in the Columbia, (See Grand Coulee forebay elevation charts) most Columbia Basin Project irrigators will get their full amount. Those pumping deep wells will continue their self-defeating practices. But Cliff never has given much notice east of the Okanogan River.

What gets hurt in these droughts? People, whose lawns dry up and from time to time municipal providers put them on restricted irrigation days (ooh, bad....my lawn is brown!), and those without a voice: fish and wildlife. Less forage, less water, more of the natural desert long forgotten. Waterfowl and non-game species without access to artificial water (the NWR system inside the Columbia Basin Project area being the best example) they either gotta go or stay and die. And they don't come back soon.

In my opinion after reading him for some years now, Dr. Mass weather advice is generally excellent for Cascadia, but his perspective on good, bad, or indifferent shows his emphasis on industry and his deep lack of understanding of the role groundwater plays here in Eastern Washington for all users. To him on this, I say reservoir schmezervoir. His comments on agency personnel are generally comical. Suggestion of ulterior motives and profits from drought crack me up. None of the agency folks make more money or gain influence or power from drought, and neither does Cliff. The only ones who do are junior irrigation appropriators, who get emergency grants, I guess to buy water from municipalities and senior appropriators smart enough to farm the drought.