2024 NOF

[Smalma]

I see the 2024 Puget Sound salmon forecasts have been posted on WDFW's NOF web site.

A couple quick observations. The PS total coho forecast is down from 2023 (720,000 versus 780,000 - remember 2023 fish returned well above forecast).
For key wild stocks the Stillaguamish wild forecasts are similar to last year, the Skagit is above last year, and the Snohomish forecast is down a bit (about 5,000 fish).

Like last year it looks like the Stillaguamish and Snohomish Chinook stocks will be key stocks of concern with both wild forecasts smaller in 2024 than in 2023.

Curt

 

[_WW_]

Sockeye and Coho look promising.

 

[Creatch’r]

I wonder how short the NF stilly “season” will be this year?

 

[Chris Johnson]

Sockeye and Coho look promising.

I was chatting with a Canadian friend the other day and he told me that they have curtailed the troll fishery on the west coast of Vancouver Is. greatly, which should bode well for both Coho and Sockeye.

 

[Chucker]

Forecasts and model runs

Forecasts and model runs for the 2024 seasons will be posted here as they become available.

wdfw.wa.gov

Interesting that the green river wild coho forecast is 1/10th of the 2023 number. Wonder how that is going to affect mid sound coho fishing.

 

[johnnyboy]

Looks like the Sky might be really restricted to fishing this summer again because of those king returns.

Will be interesting to see how they manage MA 7/9/10 this summer too. I would not expect a long season for the boat anglers going after kings.

 

[Stonedfish]

I listened to five hours today while at work.
I had planned to ask some questions, but folks before me covered what I intended to ask.
Everyone was pretty civil, though one guy got cut off when he mentioned WDFW needs to grow a pair.
I’d think we’d get similar seasons to last year based on the forecasts, but that is just a guess on my part and you never know what wrenches might get thrown into the negotiations.
SF

 

[speedbird]

Looks like the Sky might be really restricted to fishing this summer again because of those king returns.

Will be interesting to see how they manage MA 7/9/10 this summer too. I would not expect a long season for the boat anglers going after kings.

Guess that means taking the blue water boat to Baker Lake during prime King season

Any talk about moving Area 10 to August to get us a season during the prime time instead of using up quota in July? As I understand August is when it really picks up

 

[speedbird]

I wonder if embracing saltwater catch and release of salmon could allow us to be more creative with expanding opportunity given our constraints. I bet October Area 9 coho could be brought back with a stipulation of "catch and release fishing from shore only" addendum. I've also thought about whether I would be willing to give up Area 9 Chinook harvest if it meant more time on the water over there.

 

[onefish]

I was chatting with a Canadian friend the other day and he told me that they have curtailed the troll fishery on the west coast of Vancouver Is. greatly, which should bode well for both Coho and Sockeye.

You need to work with your Alaskan buddies in the SE Alaska fishery that targets non Alaskan salmon heading to rivers as far south as California. The Canadian troll fishery is almost closed now.

 

[Chris Johnson]

You need to work with your Alaskan buddies in the SE Alaska fishery that targets non Alaskan salmon heading to rivers as far south as California. The Canadian troll fishery is almost closed now.

I'm in full agreement with you on the S.E. AK fisheries. However, there is not much I can do about it.

 

[Stonedfish]

There is a lot of missed Puget Sound hatchery chinook opportunities. Just look at the hatchery returns.
It will stay that way with the ESA listing and the Stilly situation isn’t going away.

No doubt SE Alaska takes some of our chinook. I was watching a fishing show recently. They were fishing out of Vancouver Island. During the show, the captain mentioned intercepting US bound fish. After bonking one fish and putting it in the box, he said “thank you America”.
SF

 

[speedbird]

There is a lot of missed Puget Sound hatchery chinook opportunities. Just look at the hatchery returns.
It will stay that way with the ESA listing and the Stilly situation isn’t going away.

No doubt SE Alaska takes some of our chinook. I was watching a fishing show recently. They were fishing out of Vancouver Island. During the show, the captain mentioned intercepting US bound fish. After bonking one fish and putting it in the box, he said “thank you America”.
SF

With the Stilly situation as it is, can't say I have an issue with Canadians taking the fish. At least someone is benefiting.

When no serious steps are taken to increase the Stilly's carrying capacity, can we really even call fishing restrictions "recovery plans"?

 

[Paige]

I wonder if embracing saltwater catch and release of salmon could allow us to be more creative with expanding opportunity given our constraints. I bet October Area 9 coho could be brought back with a stipulation of "catch and release fishing from shore only" addendum. I've also thought about whether I would be willing to give up Area 9 Chinook harvest if it meant more time on the water over there.

Unfortunately ocean Coho have a very very low CnR survival rate.

 

[Stonedfish]

Unfortunately ocean Coho have a very very low CnR survival rate.

Agree.
They lose scales just looking at them.
I’d rather they allow anglers just keep your first two coho rather than cycling through multiple fish to get two clipped fish. I think we also know some of those unclipped fish aren’t wild fish.
SF

 

[SeaRunner]

I think the most surprising thing to me in Friday's meeting was the slide showing "poor" chinook returns in 2023 for the Green and Lake Washington system.

 

[Chris Johnson]

Unfortunately ocean Coho have a very very low CnR survival rate.

Is there research on this or is it personal observation?

 

[speedbird]

Director Susewind agreed to unequal allocation of the allowable impacts on natural-origin Stillaguamish chinook and this was the primary factor limiting recreational fisheries for 2022-23. – Fish Northwest

fishnorthwest.org

I have to ask those on here more knowledgeable about fisheries management than I am if there is some truth to this press release or is it politically partisan demagoguery intended to lay blame where it does not belong. I keep wondering why the 2022-2023 Chinook seasons were so limiting compared to the 2019-2020, and even 2021-2022 seasons (At least on paper, as I understand most ended up shutting early due to quota being reached).

 

[Paige]

Is there research on this or is it personal observation?

It has been talked about for over 20yrs and well documented, somewhere.

 

[Matt B]

It has been talked about for over 20yrs and well documented, somewhere.

Yeah, but it’s always worth checking your assumptions. I gotta admit, I had the same thought as Chris. Fish are pretty dang resilient overall and scale loss seems like it might be minor in effects/outcomes in comparison to some other injuries, so I think it’s a fair question.