NFR How's the housing market where you live?

Non-fishing related
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They overreacted to the economic damage that they believed Covid would create. Now they are going to create their own in order to "fix" it.

I'm just not understanding. I mean "economic experts" told me inflation wasn't a worry. And if it happened it would be transitory. Best economic recovery in history?
 
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I have wondered whether hospitals tend to accumulate out of City homeless. I mean if you get hurt in Whatcom County, you are taken to the hospital in B'ham. How many of those people are unable to make it back to where they were? How many rural homeless end up in the City with the hospital?
Anyone could bus it back fairly close to where they were living in the County but there are more services for as well as access to intoxicants (for the addicted homeless) in the City. My understanding is that the majority of homeless in any city are from the county/ area where the City is located or that City itself. Just a random thought this morning.
when I worked in Mountain View for a decade, commuting in from the coast, when homeless showed up they were picked up by police, driven to the bus station and handed a ticket to Santa Cruz, where the homeless thrive like fleas on a mangy dog, unhampered by local authorities.
 
Couple of Points:

1. My family made regular trips to Seattle for various reasons from 1979 onwards, and for ~80% of the time from 1992-2014 I lived within the city limits: U-District, Ballard, Phinney Ridge, and Capitol Hill. I live about 12 miles north of the city now, and find myself either passing through or in the city a few times a month.

Does saying that you liked Seattle much more when the public spaces in Seattle were safer, cleaner, and more orderly and resenting the people and policies that have made it much less so mean you "hate" Seattle? If I expressed hostility to someone dumping industrial waste and raw sewage into a river that I lived alongside, the policies that made such destruction possible, and the people supporting what I deemed to be profoundly irresponsible, reckless, delusional, and misguided policies that enabled such pollution - could that only be motivated by a "hatred" for the river? Perhaps it might be the opposite?

I've seen and lived with the consequences of various policy regimes instituted by the city with my own eyes over the course of the past ~40+ years, after spending most of my adult life actually living in the city I think I've got every right to express hostility and contempt for politicians and policies that have made the city a worse place to live in - *especially* for people that are poor, physically vulnerable, and need to use public spaces.

I'd be willing to wager that I have connections to the city that are at least as long, deep, and significant as yours, and have considerably more regular contact with people that actually live in Seattle than you do. The idea that you have to be some kind of extreme right-wing ideologue to dislike the direction things have gone in the city, or to conclude that you'd have a dramatically better quality of life elsewhere and decide to vote with your feet and move - be it a few miles outside the city, or over the Cascades - is the sort of conjecture that you can *only* engage in if you live far enough from the city to base your opinions on ideology and very little else.

2. California has a population of 40 million. Oregon has a population of 4 million. Washington has a population of 7.5 million. That's 51.5 million. Idaho has a population of 1.9 million, 800,000 of whom live in the Boise metro. Ergo the population of California + Oregon + Washington = roughly 64X greater than the greater Boise Area. Even if a tiny percentage of the 52 million inhabitants of WA, CA, OR decide that move to Boise and other small cities in the interior of the West, that's more than enough to overwhelm the local housing market in those cities, which is at least part of the reason that 3 of the 15 fastest cities/towns in the US in 2022 were suburbs of Boise.

They're clearly coming from somewhere - and while the net migration figures from a single city that constitutes a relatively small fraction of the total population in coastal metro areas are interesting - without disaggregating them into more granular demographic cohorts the numbers can't tell you much about the impact they'll have on the effective demand for housing or home prices. If you've got that data, I'd be interested in looking at it, but I'd be willing to bet that the cohort moving from Boise to Seattle proper skews heavily towards the young and childless, with a smattering of established adults with the wealth and earning power necessary to buy a home in the Puget Sound these days.

In any event - the idea that outmigration from coastal cities with an exceptionally high cost of living and a deteriorating quality of life isn't driving demand for homes in Boise and other cities like it upwards and isn't having an effect on prices is very difficult to reconcile with the facts on the ground, but I can assure you that it will be very welcome news indeed to anyone who wants to buy a home there.

3. In a very important sense, I'm on *your* team! I personally hope there's a sustained, generational mass-exodus from smaller cities and towns in the Western interior that are nestled amongst rivers and mountains, and that everyone leaving has the means and the desire to pay a wildly irrational premium for a very average home ~10 miles north of Seattle, and that this trend culminates in a speculative frenzy that dwarfs anything in recorded history right when my youngest graduates from high school.
Fair points, but I think you are directing a disproportionate amount of negative emotions at local policies. All major metro areas have experienced the same negative outcomes as Seattle is, yet they don't all institute the same policies. I see most of these changes as driven by federal policies, especially taxation and regulation (the great slashing of these on those with the most resources/power). Local policies are at best a bandaid and these issues can only be resolved to satisfaction through more thorough federal policy shifts.
 
Interesting discussion.
I've lived in Seattle for 44 years and western WA for my entire life.
No double Seattle has lots of problems. What the city council didn't fuck up they shit on and defunding the police was the dumbest idea ever.
Hopefully with a new mayor, city attorney and getting more folks like Sara Nelson on the council, things can turn around.
There has been some progress but still a ton of work to do.

Unless you are blind or just don't pay attention in your own like slice of heaven, 'Seattle" type problems and issues are everywhere.
My office is in Kirkland. We have homeless folks living nearby. The food bank behind my office has long, long lines. There are old rvs in the Fred Meyer parking lot with folks living in them at times.
Anyway, sorry for the thread drift.....
In regards to Seattle area, some I assume are still moving here because I sure see a ton of out of state plates from Georgia, Florida etc.
SF
 
I feel really fortunate. I have not seen any homelessness in Seattle.

But then again I have only driven to downtown twice in the last decade or so...
 
one million dead Americans from Covid with tens of millions still struggling with long haul issues isn't an economic issue?
Those are tragic and personal economic issues but not broad economic issues.

I'm not making light of the dead, Covid almost killed me too! However, how a person dies is totally irrelevant to the economy and millions of people die every year...the economy doesn't care.

It's also possible to have a serious issue and still overreact to the issue. I'm not saying that anyone could have known what the exact economic impact would turn out to be and that can only be measured after the fact....BUT as it turns out they did in fact overreact. Now that they know that they have to take additional actions to course correct.

Many businesses and individuals made more money during the pandemic than before the pandemic but they were all treated the same...again hard to have know in the beginning. My best year in the 23 year history of my business was 2021. At the end of 2020 the SBA offered me a pile of cash. I didn't take it because I didn't think I was going to need it. Most of my colleagues took it, didn't need it and still have that cash.

I was receiving child tax credit checks until just recently...I didn't need those either. There are millions of people out there just like me.
 
Those are tragic and personal economic issues but not broad economic issues.

I'm not making light of the dead, Covid almost killed me too! However, how a person dies is totally irrelevant to the economy and millions of people die every year...the economy doesn't care.

It's also possible to have a serious issue and still overreact to the issue. I'm not saying that anyone could have known what the exact economic impact would turn out to be and that can only be measured after the fact....BUT as it turns out they did in fact overreact. Now that they know that they have to take additional actions to course correct.

Many businesses and individuals made more money during the pandemic than before the pandemic but they were all treated the same...again hard to have know in the beginning. My best year in the 23 year history of my business was 2021. At the end of 2020 the SBA offered me a pile of cash. I didn't take it because I didn't think I was going to need it. Most of my colleagues took it, didn't need it and still have that cash.

I was receiving child tax credit checks until just recently...I didn't need those either. There are millions of people out there just like me.
Inflation is hurting me WAY more then covid did, from the customer end(spending less) AND the cost of goods end. Aside from the relatively short shutdown we had in Oregon people were all Gung Ho to support local businesses etc... with all that govt. money. We got the child tax credits and the stimi money too. Now people dont have enough in the weekly budget to buy gas or food... So yea I'm crossing my fingers for that fall variant :LOL:
 
Those are tragic and personal economic issues but not broad economic issues.

I'm not making light of the dead, Covid almost killed me too! However, how a person dies is totally irrelevant to the economy and millions of people die every year...the economy doesn't care.

It's also possible to have a serious issue and still overreact to the issue. I'm not saying that anyone could have known what the exact economic impact would turn out to be and that can only be measured after the fact....BUT as it turns out they did in fact overreact. Now that they know that they have to take additional actions to course cor rect.
Many businesses and individuals made more money during the pandemic than before the pandemic but they were all treated the same...again hard to have know in the beginning. My best year in the 23 year history of my business was 2021. At the end of 2020 the SBA offered me a pile of cash. I didn't take it because I didn't think I was going to need it. Most of my colleagues took it, didn't need it and still have that cash.

I was receiving child tax credit checks until just recently...I didn't need those either. There are millions of people out there just like me.
I agree with most of your points, however, the economic impact of Covid has been immense.
The reason we did not have more deaths and illness in this country has been due to the enormous effort and cost to control the pandemic, which included the cost to create, buy and provide vaccines to the 67% of the country that has taken them. And to date the Fed's have spent 4.5 trillion $ in the Covid effort on both the medical and economic fronts. And of course the Fed's f'd up the SBA program, that dept is notorious for being incapable of working even reasonably well, much less cost efficient.
And the total economic impact of Covid on the US economy has been projected by multiple studies ranging from 12 Trillion to 20 Trillion. The last time our country endured such economic impact was WW2.
 
Those are tragic and personal economic issues but not broad economic issues.

I'm not making light of the dead, Covid almost killed me too! However, how a person dies is totally irrelevant to the economy and millions of people die every year...the economy doesn't care.

It's also possible to have a serious issue and still overreact to the issue. I'm not saying that anyone could have known what the exact economic impact would turn out to be and that can only be measured after the fact....BUT as it turns out they did in fact overreact. Now that they know that they have to take additional actions to course correct.

Many businesses and individuals made more money during the pandemic than before the pandemic but they were all treated the same...again hard to have know in the beginning. My best year in the 23 year history of my business was 2021. At the end of 2020 the SBA offered me a pile of cash. I didn't take it because I didn't think I was going to need it. Most of my colleagues took it, didn't need it and still have that cash.

I was receiving child tax credit checks until just recently...I didn't need those either. There are millions of people out there just like me.

The amount of COVID money fraud is beyond imaginable. I could have accepted a load of it. I refused as I don't think one can talk shit about the government as frequently and flagrantly as I do and accept government money. I know some honest businesses that took it and paid their people and essentially did with it what was intended and the right thing. I also know of businesses that took it, didn't pay their people, and effectively gambled in stocks and took vacation on the government dime. One is a restaurant I will not patron under any circumstance. They don't seem to think they did anything wrong with "free money". This group are straight scammers and should IMHO have to pay it back or be prosecuted.
 
The amount of COVID money fraud is beyond imaginable. I could have accepted a load of it. I refused as I don't think one can talk shit about the government as frequently and flagrantly as I do and accept government money. I know some honest businesses that took it and paid their people and essentially did with it what was intended and the right thing. I also know of businesses that took it, didn't pay their people, and effectively gambled in stocks and took vacation on the government dime. One is a restaurant I will not patron under any circumstance. They don't seem to think they did anything wrong with "free money". This group are straight scammers and should IMHO have to pay it back or be prosecuted.
I too talk way too much shit to have any on my hands. I was also concerned that the SBA could potentially become my "business partner" and there was no amount of money that would have made that worth it.

The fraud is is frustrating but I can see why people did it...it almost seemed like it wasn't cheating. I was receiving solicitations from SBA as recent as 6 months ago. That was 6 months after I declined the original offer. It got tot the point where I was asking myself if I was the idiot for not taking it. I have never been in a situation where someone begged me to be dishonest.
 
The amount of COVID money fraud is beyond imaginable. I could have accepted a load of it. I refused as I don't think one can talk shit about the government as frequently and flagrantly as I do and accept government money. I know some honest businesses that took it and paid their people and essentially did with it what was intended and the right thing. I also know of businesses that took it, didn't pay their people, and effectively gambled in stocks and took vacation on the government dime. One is a restaurant I will not patron under any circumstance. They don't seem to think they did anything wrong with "free money". This group are straight scammers and should IMHO have to pay it back or be prosecuted.
I would also say that some of the language from the SBA was WAY too vague to have not been intentional.
 
well my wife told me she has had enough of Colorado and wants to move allergies be damned.
we are looking at Western Montana, essentially Darby to Polson north to south, and Clinton to Frenchtown east to west.

Within an hour of Lewiston ID
Within an hour of Spokane preferably to the north
Possibly the Columbia Gorge if 1 my old boss will have me back and 2 if we can find a place a little out of the gorge.IN WASHINGTON, not Oregon
 
The amount of COVID money fraud is beyond imaginable. I could have accepted a load of it. I refused as I don't think one can talk shit about the government as frequently and flagrantly as I do and accept government money. I know some honest businesses that took it and paid their people and essentially did with it what was intended and the right thing. I also know of businesses that took it, didn't pay their people, and effectively gambled in stocks and took vacation on the government dime. One is a restaurant I will not patron under any circumstance. They don't seem to think they did anything wrong with "free money". This group are straight scammers and should IMHO have to pay it back or be prosecuted.
I took it, because the government essentially shut down events and public gatherings for 2 years, which was 50% of my business. Didn't feel great about it but whatever, I followed the rules to the T and it was more designed to help large corps with lots of employees. I lost roughly $100K a year and the two PPP loans I got were 9k and 7.5k and 60% of that had to go towards employee pay... so it paid a few bills.
 
I also know of businesses that took it, didn't pay their people, and effectively gambled in stocks and took vacation on the government dime. One is a restaurant I will not patron under any circumstance. They don't seem to think they did anything wrong with "free money". This group are straight scammers and should IMHO have to pay it back or be prosecuted.
So if you know this to be fact, did you report it ?
Many of the fraud cases prosecuted are due to right thinking citizens who see fraud, and report it.
Full disclosure, self employed and took no money during covid. Know several who did, all who paid employees, rent and legitimate expenses per the ppp loan guidelines.
 
well my wife told me she has had enough of Colorado and wants to move allergies be damned.
we are looking at Western Montana, essentially Darby to Polson north to south, and Clinton to Frenchtown east to west.

Within an hour of Lewiston ID
Within an hour of Spokane preferably to the north
Possibly the Columbia Gorge if 1 my old boss will have me back and 2 if we can find a place a little out of the gorge.IN WASHINGTON, not Oregon
Good luck to you and your wife with your relocation.
 
we are looking at Western Montana, essentially Darby to Polson north to south, and Clinton to Frenchtown east to west.
Prices have really gone nuts along this corridor...seems like everybody wants to move there now which is really driving up the demand and prices. Rents are either non-existent or sky high as well so make sure you have a place lined up before you decide to jump ship.
 
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