NFR How's the housing market where you live?

[cody-]

Ahhh grasshopper

You have a lot to learn...

And yet, still nothing said that anything could be learned from. This thread will hit 50, maybe 100 pages, and the sum of it will be irrelevant anecdotes, half-baked conjecture, and people posting statistics their real estate agent gave them on how great they are for making costs higher.

I'm glad you all are convinced that your posts on this thread are helpful and wise.

 

[headduck]

Easy to say zoning...such a broad term with so many aspects...

So while we may say "zoning" is the answer, how's that play out?

Changing what to what and where?

Who's gonna build and for whom and at what price point?

Who comes out ahead?

How does this solve short term pain when the process takes years maybe decades to materialize?

For the record... I belive in the power or planning but this "change the zoning" mantra seems to be chanted by many who are just frustrated and are saying things...

 

[Dustin Chromers]

There has now been 30 pages and 4 months of what people are calling "help" and "advice" for folks hoping to purchase a home for the first time. None of it has fallen close to either, and it all falls into one of two categories. The first category is basically to have money to buy property for the first time, you should have previously had bought a property before the first one. Examples include:
- "House prices are up everywhere but buy a house somewhere where that isn't true."
- "Just buy a condo or townhouse, despite the fact that they're also skyrocketing in price and inventory is way lower because nimbys in mid-sized cities and small towns nationwide have effectively criminalized middle density and mixed use zoning."
- "Get something that's already quadrupled in price in the past ten years that needs some work and then renovate it. I'm certain that bathroom reno I did fifteen years ago is the reason the property value is up four-fold in ten years. It's all my valuable renovations and design taste."

Next is the bootstrapping:
- "I only took vacations within the USA."
- "I worked a normal amount of hours each week but feel that I'm pretty special for it."
- "Damn mellinnials. They're all so lazy"
- "I worked really hard to have my real estate agent front me half of the down payment for my first house that I sold at a profit because I'm Bob Villa. " (doubles with the first category)

These also known as the walking up hill, both ways, in the snow category. Typically accompanied by commentary on how every minor inconvenience to them was incredibly thoughtless and noble, and anything that someone else does is insufficient and half-assed. Actual circumstances don't matter. If you bought a house 30 years ago then sacrifices were made, and if the haven't in 2022 then no sacrifices were made.

The solution is, and has been, zoning. If people didn't want middle density apartments and condos to be built then developers wouldn't be trying to build them. @Dr. Magill, I agree with your comment about zoning being the only solution. My "yes, and" was more about (the what I saw as) pro-SFH and anti-MFH portions that followed. Everyone else: you aren't as helpful or informative or insightful as you're pretending to be.

The housing market is tough, no doubt. There's been solid advice given in this thread but you're too busy being negative and effectively saying, "ok boomer" to get any benefit from it. Here's more free advice you won't take to heart, unless you got rich parents nobody is going to do it for you. If I were you I'd get a plan, make some compromises on location, size etc,, and get an improved can do attitude. Some people no matter how clear or rough the road see only the obstacles. Don't do that. It will stunt you in life. I could regale you with tales of extrication from abject poverty but I don't really feel like doing that or getting "ok boomered" as I see you've categorised these things to internally diminish the value of advice that is hard to hear and the folks giving it. It's often the best advice we aren't looking for that's hardest to swallow that proves most spot on and useful to you in the end. You're concentrated on "zoning" as a solution. Well here's another free one. You don't have control over that. Effective people don't waste time lamenting what they cannot control. Focus on what you have agency over and nothing else. The rest is distraction. You're target fixated on something a political candidate might talk about changing for votes. Again, distraction without agency to change. Make moves and changes to only what you can honestly and effectively control and you will find yourself in the driver's seat.

 

[Dustin Chromers]

And yet, still nothing said that anything could be learned from. This thread will hit 50, maybe 100 pages, and the sum of it will be irrelevant anecdotes, half-baked conjecture, and people posting statistics their real estate agent gave them on how great they are for making costs higher.

I'm glad you all are convinced that your posts on this thread are helpful and wise.

Nobody will have a magic formula. It isn't easy. However it seems some managed to buy a house even in this tough market. Maybe listen up. Or not and keep complaining and saying others are stupid and not helpful. Maybe start a GoFundMe. That's what all the hip cool kids are doing these days when they short on bread. Boomers would never think of such an innovative idea. They dumb.

 

[Dustin Chromers]

Easy to say zoning...such a broad term with so many aspects...

So while we may say "zoning" is the answer, how's that play out?

Changing what to what and where?

Who's gonna build and for whom and at what price point?

Who comes out ahead?

How does this solve short term pain when the process takes years maybe decades to materialize?

For the record... I belive in the power or planning but this "change the zoning" mantra seems to be chanted by many who are just frustrated and are saying things...

Zoning is the cry of political candidates seeking votes from desperate people. Notice how the zoning never changes though after the votes are counted and the desperation of the same people is unchanged if not worse.

 

[HauntedByWaters]

Two options:

Housing price inflation is a reflection of a monetary policy by FED. The housing market was captured by big corporations with access to cheap capital, that has sought to turn the market on a perpetual rental market. We should strongly seek limiting corporate money into real state market. This a huge asymmetry of power between regular people and corporations fighting for limited supply of existent house.

Or

The young don’t make enough sacrifices.

 

[swimmy]

Focus on what you have agency over and nothing else.

100%.

 

[Coach Potter]

And yet, still nothing said that anything could be learned from. This thread will hit 50, maybe 100 pages, and the sum of it will be irrelevant anecdotes, half-baked conjecture, and people posting statistics their real estate agent gave them on how great they are for making costs higher.

I'm glad you all are convinced that your posts on this thread are helpful and wis

I was trying to offer some encouragement but maybe I was too vague.

I believe houses are going to become more affordable...possibly more affordable than you think is possible.

 

[creekx]

The housing market is tough, no doubt. There's been solid advice given in this thread but you're too busy being negative and effectively saying, "ok boomer" to get any benefit from it. Here's more free advice you won't take to heart, unless you got rich parents nobody is going to do it for you. If I were you I'd get a plan, make some compromises on location, size etc,, and get an improved can do attitude. Some people no matter how clear or rough the road see only the obstacles. Don't do that. It will stunt you in life. I could regale you with tales of extrication from abject poverty but I don't really feel like doing that or getting "ok boomered" as I see you've categorised these things to internally diminish the value of advice that is hard to hear and the folks giving it. It's often the best advice we aren't looking for that's hardest to swallow that proves most spot on and useful to you in the end. You're concentrated on "zoning" as a solution. Well here's another free one. You don't have control over that. Effective people don't waste time lamenting what they cannot control. Focus on what you have agency over and nothing else. The rest is distraction. You're target fixated on something a political candidate might talk about changing for votes. Again, distraction without agency to change. Make moves and changes to only what you can honestly and effectively control and you will find yourself in the driver's seat.

I can't believe this site is free.

 

[creekx]

Two options:

Housing price inflation is a reflection of a monetary policy by FED. The housing market was captured by big corporations with access to cheap capital, that has sought to turn the market on a perpetual rental market. We should strongly seek limiting corporate money into real state market. This a huge asymmetry of power between regular people and corporations fighting for limited supply of existent house.

Or

The young don’t make enough sacrifices.

https://www.pnwflyfishing.com/forum...-housing-market-where-you-live.422/post-42294

 

[Dustin Chromers]

Two options:

Housing price inflation is a reflection of a monetary policy by FED. The housing market was captured by big corporations with access to cheap capital, that has sought to turn the market on a perpetual rental market. We should strongly seek limiting corporate money into real state market. This a huge asymmetry of power between regular people and corporations fighting for limited supply of existent house.

Or

The young don’t make enough sacrifices.

Both. This country isn't in as good of shape as far as upward mobility for the middle class as it once was. I don't dispute that. I would add that property ownership is a vector to wealth.

On the second item I'm not going to generalise lazy but people have allot more stuff garnering their income and productivity that doesn't lead to ownership. Two plus cars, smart phones, toys, less nuclear family arrangement etc. So even if one isn't lazy unless they have lots of willpower and priority they will find their money is leaving their wallet in small bites for distractions. I strongly advise a cold list form of priorities for people. This keeps focus on what is important. If it's not advancing what you truly want, forget it. The gratification after delay is far more gratifying.

While we are handing out blame and advocating for certain subjects required in school I got one. Financial literacy..I had to learn the hard way. It was almost as if someone wanted me to get a college loan, go in debt, get credit cards to pay said debt, and be terminally slave to that system. I mean visa and MasterCard came to the campus. It didn't happen but I could see how easy it could. I was armed with zero tools to fend it off. Let's give young people the tools to know what is what in financial matters. It should be required. We are producing debt slaves that drive new cars and have the latest everything except property. That works great for the corporate class and not so hot for a dwindling middle class. People may own nothing and like it but at some point........

 

[mtskibum16]

Homes within commuting distance to Seattle are so high priced now that I am afraid to buy, because I think there will be a crash when the single family houses owned and lived in by Boomers start flooding the market.

We will buy if there is a big dip/market correction, but for now I am content to rent. I don't look at it as money thrown away. I love our rental home and pay rent for the privilege of living here. I'd reconsider if the landlord jacks up the rent, though.

Alternatively this could be the cheapest those properties will be in your life time. Literally, no one knows and just like the stock market, no one can reliably time the market. But the good news is, like the stock market, the price of homes has trended up long term. So it really depends on your time horizon. If you think you will be in that location for the next 20 years you are likely better off buying as soon as you can. If you think you might need to move in 5 years, then maybe not. The cost of buying and selling and the chance of getting stuck in a place might not be worth the hassle.

There very well could be a dip in the market as boomers check out, but it could be small (and after prices are up another 20-50%) and it could be that it doesn't come for 15 or more years or spread out enough there is never a major market correction from it (they are 57-75 years old right now). Again, literally no one knows.

I bought in 2009. Sounds great right? Right after the crash, prices were down, interest rates were reasonable. Well prices kept going down locally. Even though we thought we bought at a reasonable price, with an FHA loan and limited down payment, we were technically underwater. Our home value didn't catch up to our purchase price until 2016 (7 years later) according to Zillow. Fast forward 6 more years and it looks like a great buy with a value over twice what we paid. What if we would have bought right before the crash in 2007? Well, it would have still been a great buy 13-15 years down the road. Just would have looked worse on paper for a few years early on.

I've read estimates of 5+ years for the industry to catch up to demand. There's a very real possibility we still see 10%+ increase in prices over that time. My take right now is that there are so few properties available that there are enough high earners and big metro area transplants to account for all of them which will keep prices high because they are living a different reality than the average middle or middle/upper class people. Rising rates don't matter if you are buying with cash.

Just an alternate view. I don't know any more than the next guy, but sometimes it's important to know what you don't know (or can't control). If you plan to be in the area long term, can afford a house, and have a desire to own a house then now is probably as good a time as any.

 

[ARecher]

I don't know what the answer is. I can see some truth in EVERYTHING I've read in this thread. Certainly things have changed over the years and solutions that might have worked in the past may not be feasible anymore. This is a problem with a lot of moving parts and my opinion is that it will either eventually correct itself or there'll need to be a more complex solution than most of us (and those who can make a difference) are willing to take the time to try to formulate or comprehend. The housing "crisis" is just a symptom of a much larger disease (also my opinion). No two ways about it though, the middle class is getting squeezed hard. Around here, as an answer to the issues of not enough "working class" housing, a number of folks have suggested apartment complexes or other high density housing. One group of people actually paid to have a smallish multi-unit building barged over from Vancouver BC. Unfortunately, they must not have had enough money to finish the job as it's been placed on a foundation but has been empty and unfinished for years. Now some assholes have come in and broken all the windows out. So, so much for that idea. I guess, technically-or based on real estate costs, my partner and I would have fit into the apartment dweller category around here. But I found that to be kind of insulting given that we are both fairly well educated and together we make pretty decent incomes. That isn't what either of us wanted. Fortunately, we can and do work remotely so were able to get a place in a bit more rural location. It took a few years of saving and looking and figuring out. Most can't just pick up and move though and I feel pretty badly for them. I definitely have had periods of optimism and of despair. We would get pre-qualified every year and look around and then just give up when the qualification term ended. It's hard, and it sucks, but there's a lot of value in optimism. There's a path out there. We sign papers today.

 

[HauntedByWaters]

I’m reading this anecdotal stuff about young people not prioritizing and saving et cetera. The same old shit. Fact: starter homes on my street are selling for around a million dollars. My house is worth a million dollars and it can’t fit a family of four.

 

[Dustin Chromers]

I’m reading this anecdotal stuff about young people not prioritizing and saving et cetera. The same old shit. Fact: starter homes on my street are selling for around a million dollars. My house is worth a million dollars and it can’t fit a family of four.

I don't think you're seeing all of what I wrote in response above. There is no doubt the market is out of balance and if you look at median income to home prices ratios it was actually easier by the numbers to buy a house in the depression. There's more than one mechanism at work. People have to be far more clever these days to make it happen. I'm from a mill town. You could not have a high school diploma and make a family wage job and own a home not that long ago. That's changed. One has to combat that change with action. It's not easy and it's harder than it was. I'm not debating that. I feel for anyone trying to buy a first home right now.

 

[charles sullivan]

Easy to say zoning...such a broad term with so many aspects...

So while we may say "zoning" is the answer, how's that play out?

Changing what to what and where?

Who's gonna build and for whom and at what price point?

Who comes out ahead?

How does this solve short term pain when the process takes years maybe decades to materialize?

For the record... I belive in the power or planning but this "change the zoning" mantra seems to be chanted by many who are just frustrated and are saying things...

There were a few bills that got pretty far in the state legislature this past session that would have helped. The ywill come up again.
In my opinion too much home rule, zoning wise is a big problem. Counties in WA state are forced to limit development for the purpose of retaining rural character, preserving farmland and timber land etc. My county was sued for years and lost, rightfully so.
At he same time I live in a neighborhood within city limits with 20,000 square foot minimum lot sizes. Is there any viable reason for minimum lot sizes over 10,000 square feet within city limits? I don't think so. The neighborhood is mostly older and mostly owner occupied. Our city gives deference to local "neighborhood associations". Those associations are mostly made up of older people as they can attend the meeting rather than working or going to the kids recital etc. So they oppose most change. If the state were to pass a bill that required the minimum zoning in any city neighborhood to never exceed 10,000 square feet my neighborhood could house a lot more homes. This would help. More homes on bus lines, water/ sewer service, closer to services and jobs etc.
Public policy does matter. It is not whining to try and push for a change in public policy. It's the American way actually. Check with the rep's that you vote for and see if they want to force cities to lower minimum lot sizes. Vote for those people. That is my advise.

 

[Salmo_g]

In college I lived in a shack in the woods south of Mt Vernon. I put a lot of work into that place but it was rustic. Didn’t have plumbing but I had access to a couple trout ponds. I loved it.

One of my friends saw what I was up to and built his own little shack on a barge type thing. He used his little Boston whaler to haul it somewhere on the lower Skagit. His shack was also bad ass.

Those were good times.

I've seen those shacks on floats on the lower North Fork. Funny, bad ass isn't what comes to mind when I think of them. Sub-standard camping is what I thought, but then I'm a pragmatic camper. However, I'll agree that they show more class than blue tarp camping under a Seattle freeway.

 

[Stonedfish]

Middle density zoning may be great, but in a city say like Seattle where do you put it and what do you take out?
It has already happened in many areas. Just drive down Lake City Way say between 125th and 145th. More are coming there as you see multiple boarded up small commercial building in a row. (See picture of what used to be one of my clients offices.) Its been sitting that way for awhile now.
This is happening on just about every major arterial in the city. Goodbye Sandy’s Seafood, Jansen’s Smokehouse and Safeway on Greenwood.
I think the biggest issue is the time involved with securing financing, permitting etc.
I still don’t think even if all the projects were shovel ready all at the same time you could build yourself out of the current situation.

Not far from me, a bunch of single family homes were taken out to build a bunch of townhomes. Obviously not the density of apartments or condos, but a heck of a lot more units then the single family homes provided. $10 million was the starting price just for the dirt and the homes that were torn down. Sorry, you get increased density but those new units won’t be affordable to many with starting prices in the $800K.

Feel free to paint me in the boomer / NIMBY crowd, as I didn’t buy my home in a single family neighborhood to look at condos and apartments.
SF

 

[SurfnFish]

If there is a correcton in the market more than a dip, better have some rainy day funds put away, because it would be an indicator of a severe recession. Stock market/real estate market/economy are all co-joined at the hip...they all run up together, they all fall together.

 

[Creatch’r]

It’s called the Great Reset.