NFR AI - How It Will Affect Jobs In The Next 5 years

Non-fishing related
Status
Not open for further replies.
from prof. seigel: "The other major theme this week was AI and productivity. Massive investments in data centers, semiconductors, energy infrastructure and reshoring are creating significant demand for labor even as AI improves efficiency. Rather than producing a labor apocalypse, AI appears more likely to augment workers and raise output per employee. The lesson from history is that technology often changes jobs more than it eliminates them."
 
In 2000 I was a project manager on the build-out of what was the largest data center in the Bay Area at the time, with hundreds of skilled trades folks involved. When the data center was up and running it operated with 60 employees.
The 4.6 million sq' Meta hyperscale DC in Prinveille employed thousands during construction and now operates with 300 engineers.
Meanwhile, the demand for chips has raised the prices of pretty much everything...auto's, fridges, laptops, tablets,etc, Apple just announced significant product line price raises, and the cost of chips is now a core inflation driver which is 4.2% and rising.
It is what it is, no need to hang banners or tie helium party balloons to it. Tech is based on product development, marketing hype and targeted sales. Regarding AI the first is in it's infancy, the second is at a record hype pitch, the third has yet to define it's ROI minus stock price speculation.
AI is here to stay, it's impact will continue to grow throughout global infrastructure, and will be with us going forward along with constant global conflicts, corrupt politicians, periodic viral epidemics, and maybe even an asteroid or two.
It is not, however, the second coming, does not walk on water, and if and when it fails to reach it's promised investment benchmarks, has the potential to generate the most significant fall in relevant tech stocks since the 2000's.
 
I was trying to find a direct quote from Patrick Gass from the Lewis and Clark Expedition.

I couldn't get AI-Gemini to write out the quote. It did, however, give me two slightly different interpretations of what Gass wrote in his book.

I think Gemini found the direct quote offensive, so it substituted "acceptable" words that completely changed Mr. Gass's comments.

Didn't expect Gemini to change historical quotes.
 
Interesting explanation from Anthropic about how AI models work and can behave like humans. Gets a little philosophical toward the end.

 
BriGuy said:
Interesting explanation from Anthropic about how AI models work and can behave like humans. Gets a little philosophical toward the end.

Click to expand...

Chloe is a known advocate for faith based AI moral guidance, and the setting for that speech was at a far-right political conference in London funded by big oil, where her faith-centric AI guidance perspective likely resonated.
Her speech does, however, make the important point about AI character.
The functional response and outcome of the various AI models begins with their initial input when turned on and the 'creator' starts inputting the vast data dump that becomes the basis for neural network formation.
So hypothesize a bad actor like North Korea who gets their hand on a robust AI model, and from day one all of it's input is on the evil of the US and how best to counter that evil by destroying it's physical and social infrastructure however and wherever possible, starting with media social polarization and ransomware attacks on institutions and infrastructure.
Which Intelligence sources confirm is exactly what is going on right now.
 
SurfnFish said:
So hypothesize a bad actor like North Korea who gets their hand on a robust AI model, and from day one all of it's input is on the evil of the US and how best to counter that evil by destroying it's physical and social infrastructure however and wherever possible, starting with media social polarization and ransomware attacks on institutions and infrastructure.
Which Intelligence sources confirm is exactly what is going on right now.
Click to expand...

You think NK is doing this? We are doing this to ourselves and it starts with our own mainstream media severely editorialized news presented as fact. Contrast that with few major networks during the Cronkite era where CBS followed a strict era of objective journalism. Viewers were left to draw their own conclusions. That's how America was united during our Bicentennial yet divided today. People talk about our 250th in DC and not being represented. Hey...if you are an American you are represented! ...and if not still welcome to attend and celebrate.

Our media painted a picture of domestic political anxieties talking down world cup in America. The foreign fans who have come are telling a different story about how great it is to be in America. Their joy is all over social media.
 
All the different AI bots seem to have subtle biases...which would be expected.
 
SurfnFish said:
Chloe is a known advocate for faith based AI moral guidance, and the setting for that speech was at a far-right political conference in London funded by big oil, where her faith-centric AI guidance perspective likely resonated.
Her speech does, however, make the important point about AI character.
The functional response and outcome of the various AI models begins with their initial input when turned on and the 'creator' starts inputting the vast data dump that becomes the basis for neural network formation.
So hypothesize a bad actor like North Korea who gets their hand on a robust AI model, and from day one all of it's input is on the evil of the US and how best to counter that evil by destroying it's physical and social infrastructure however and wherever possible, starting with media social polarization and ransomware attacks on institutions and infrastructure.
Which Intelligence sources confirm is exactly what is going on right now.
Click to expand...
She acknowleged her faith during the presentation. Not a fan of the far right, or big oil. I'm okay with her faith, though. Thanks for setting the context.

I did find the first, technical, part of her presentation interesting, and a bit worrisome.

I am not at all surprised that AI is being weaponized. Given the opportunity, some will do their worst. Some guardrails (moral, legal, political or otherwise) are sorely needed before things get too far out of hand. I just worry that humankind won't have the capacity or willingness to do so.
 
BriGuy said:
She acknowleged her faith during the presentation. Not a fan of the far right, or big oil. I'm okay with her faith, though. Thanks for setting the context.

I did find the first, technical, part of her presentation interesting, and a bit worrisome.

I am not at all surprised that AI is being weaponized. Given the opportunity, some will do their worst. Some guardrails (moral, legal, political or otherwise) are sorely needed before things get too far out of hand. I just worry that humankind won't have the capacity or willingness to do so.
Click to expand...
Cloe's was hired two years ago to make inroads with the religious right on behalf of Anthropic, who well understands the emergence of 'Godless AI' fears, which ironically has been predicted by AI modeling.
The quandary Chloe articulates is real, however, as there are no guardrails around AI development other than the ethos of whoever is loading the mega data which will be the basis for forming its 'character.'
And the statement she made about an AI model identifying 10,000 security weak points across the spectrum of commonly used software infrastructure gets to the primary threat of AI. Aside from national security penetration, how about our personal finances held by the various financial institutions whose security firewalls was likely among those weak points.
We have now entered the portal of AI vs AI data security.
 
AI is coming. No doubt about it. It is all about making money. Not sure where this chaos starts and ends. Many companies will end up in the grave.

Semiconductors are getting way too expensive. It is getting too expensive for small businesses. Go Pro may go out of business. That is just one example.

www.cnbc.com

The memory shortage shaking Apple and Microsoft is 'existential crisis' for smaller players

While Apple and Microsoft raise prices on key devices to help cover the soaring costs of memory, smaller consumer electronics companies are in dire straits.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
Last edited:
SurfnFish said:
Cloe's was hired two years ago to make inroads with the religious right on behalf of Anthropic, who well understands the emergence of 'Godless AI' fears, which ironically has been predicted by AI modeling.
The quandary Chloe articulates is real, however, as there are no guardrails around AI development other than the ethos of whoever is loading the mega data which will be the basis for forming its 'character.'
And the statement she made about an AI model identifying 10,000 security weak points across the spectrum of commonly used software infrastructure gets to the primary threat of AI. Aside from national security penetration, how about our personal finances held by the various financial institutions whose security firewalls was likely among those weak points.
We have now entered the portal of AI vs AI data security.
Click to expand...
The bad guys have been leveraging security vulnerabilities to steal and defraud for a long time. The flurry of recent ransomware attacks against the health care and state/local government sectors are a couple of examples. Heck, the Washington Employment Security Department lost millions and is still recovering -- https://www.atg.wa.gov/news/news-re...ecovers-another-93m-stolen-unemployment-money. The thought of AI being used to find these vulnerabilities at scale is truly frightening. Who knows how many fresh Zero-Day vulnerabilies have been discovered using AI.

A large AI-driven cyberattack like you describe is coming. I just hope that it will be manageable and rapidly spur the building of those guardrails.

Will Sutton, when asked why he robbed banks, replied "Because that's where the money is." I'm sure this little tidbit of information has already been ingested into the AI models.

Man, I'm glad I retired from IT before AI really took off. I do worry about my pension, though...
 
The Bicentennial was a different time, different circumstances, and there was a much closer consensus view toward the rule of law.

After two decades of U.S. involvement and 10 years of hard fighting, the Vietnam War had finally ended with the fall of Saigon and desperate refugees amassing on the roof of the American embassy, hoping to secure a helicopter ride to freedom. Watergate had concluded with a president resigning in disgrace for the first time in history.

The nation suffered another blow when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the largely Arab confederation of oil producers just starting to become known as OPEC, announced they would not sell to countries that had backed Israel in the Arab-Israeli war of October 1973. The resulting gasoline shortages pitted neighbor against neighbor at the pump, with long lines for gas regularly bubbling over into confrontations.

Then, in the space of 17 days in the fall of 1975, two women, in two different California cities, took aim and tried to assassinate President Gerald Ford.

Planning for the Bicentennial began a decade earlier, on July 4, 1966, when Congress voted to create the American Revolution Bicentennial Commission. It was the summer of Bob Dylan's "Blonde on Blonde," the Beach Boys' "Pet Sounds," and the Beatles' last ever "official" concert, performed before a sell-out crowd at Candlestick Park in San Francisco.

America's Bicentennial could have been written by Dickens as "the best of times and the worst of times" yet there was still a thirst for Democracy. The middle class was about to be slowly but methodically plundered into a stagnant, income, decay while the rich began their capture of most of this country's wealth. Take a look at any chart starting about the mid 1970s and you will see the gap of disproportionate income begin to widen with most of the US wealth now in the hands of the ultra rich. I can't see AI helping the middle class recover but fear AI will make the gap even wider!
 
RCF said:
AI is coming. No doubt about it. It is all about making money. Not sure where this chaos starts and ends. Many companies will end up in the grave.

Semiconductors are getting way too expensive. It is getting too expensive for small businesses. Go Pro may go out of business. That is just one example.

www.cnbc.com

The memory shortage shaking Apple and Microsoft is 'existential crisis' for smaller players

While Apple and Microsoft raise prices on key devices to help cover the soaring costs of memory, smaller consumer electronics companies are in dire straits.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...
Micron is building a new chip plant outside of Syracuse. That plus the struggling Taiwanese plant in Arizona still won't be enough.
Pentagon is getting its own chip plant, location and capabilities classified, of course.

I still say Google/Alphabet firing Gebru was the harbinger of the mess that's still yet to come.

The movie Elysium was a dystopian fantasy, sure but most movies like that hide a warning with a kernel of truth in them.
 
Flymph said:
The Bicentennial was a different time, different circumstances, and there was a much closer consensus view toward the rule of law.

After two decades of U.S. involvement and 10 years of hard fighting, the Vietnam War had finally ended with the fall of Saigon and desperate refugees amassing on the roof of the American embassy, hoping to secure a helicopter ride to freedom. Watergate had concluded with a president resigning in disgrace for the first time in history.

The nation suffered another blow when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the largely Arab confederation of oil producers just starting to become known as OPEC, announced they would not sell to countries that had backed Israel in the Arab-Israeli war of October 1973. The resulting gasoline shortages pitted neighbor against neighbor at the pump, with long lines for gas regularly bubbling over into confrontations.

Then, in the space of 17 days in the fall of 1975, two women, in two different California cities, took aim and tried to assassinate President Gerald Ford.

Planning for the Bicentennial began a decade earlier, on July 4, 1966, when Congress voted to create the American Revolution Bicentennial Commission. It was the summer of Bob Dylan's "Blonde on Blonde," the Beach Boys' "Pet Sounds," and the Beatles' last ever "official" concert, performed before a sell-out crowd at Candlestick Park in San Francisco.

America's Bicentennial could have been written by Dickens as "the best of times and the worst of times" yet there was still a thirst for Democracy. The middle class was about to be slowly but methodically plundered into a stagnant, income, decay while the rich began their capture of most of this country's wealth. Take a look at any chart starting about the mid 1970s and you will see the gap of disproportionate income begin to widen with most of the US wealth now in the hands of the ultra rich. I can't see AI helping the middle class recover but fear AI will make the gap even wider!
Click to expand...

I lived that time a minority in the 1970's. My father was a korean war vet with little more than a beat up chevy to his name. My family was not ultra rich but through hard work and risky purchase of a business were easily thrust into upper middle class. We had very orderly gas lines on even and odd days with commercial plate guys able to get gas every day. I don't remember anything but orderly lines. I was a new young driver at the time. It was my job to drive the family cars to the gas station and wait in the lines. Inflation peaked at about 13% but banks were giving 18% on zero risk CD's!

Even with the intense inflation and economic turbulence of the 1970s, the poor had a higher standard of living than the 1960's. Blacks experienced more opportunity and prosperity with all the civil rights legislation of the 60's by the 1970's.

The rich are not bad people. They capitalize in all markets through knowledge and asset management. They are practicing capitalism. 1000 millionaires are made very day. If you have the drive you can become one. It was the FED's F'up that caused the turning point of wealth inequity that had been decreasing since the end of WW2. We had a geo-political oil shock and Burns who went for 100% employment allowing inflation to spiral out of control to become stagflation. It was Volker who took extreme measures to kill inflation that hurt workers more while those with assets (the rich) who locked in high returns on investments spiking the wealth gap.
 
fatbillybob said:
I lived that time a minority in the 1970's. My father was a korean war vet with little more than a beat up chevy to his name. My family was not ultra rich but through hard work and risky purchase of a business were easily thrust into upper middle class. We had very orderly gas lines on even and odd days with commercial plate guys able to get gas every day. I don't remember anything but orderly lines. I was a new young driver at the time. It was my job to drive the family cars to the gas station and wait in the lines. Inflation peaked at about 13% but banks were giving 18% on zero risk CD's!

Even with the intense inflation and economic turbulence of the 1970s, the poor had a higher standard of living than the 1960's. Blacks experienced more opportunity and prosperity with all the civil rights legislation of the 60's by the 1970's.

The rich are not bad people. They capitalize in all markets through knowledge and asset management. They are practicing capitalism. 1000 millionaires are made very day. If you have the drive you can become one. It was the FED's F'up that caused the turning point of wealth inequity that had been decreasing since the end of WW2. We had a geo-political oil shock and Burns who went for 100% employment allowing inflation to spiral out of control to become stagflation. It was Volker who took extreme measures to kill inflation that hurt workers more while those with assets (the rich) who locked in high returns on investments spiking the wealth gap.
Click to expand...
I don't think the rich are bad people. At least, not mostly. I don't think billionaires (or trillionaires) should exist in a country where kids go hungry.

I think the top marginal tax rate should be set north of 70% (to start). Here's an overview of the top marginal tax rate over time:

https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/expert-insights/whole-ball-of-tax-historical-income-tax-rates

I think the significant reduction in the top marginal tax rate since WWII had/has a lot to do with rising income inequality.
 
Zak said:
I don't think the rich are bad people. At least, not mostly. I don't think billionaires (or trillionaires) should exist in a country where kids go hungry.

I think the top marginal tax rate should be set north of 70% (to start). Here's an overview of the top marginal tax rate over time:

https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/expert-insights/whole-ball-of-tax-historical-income-tax-rates

I think the significant reduction in the top marginal tax rate since WWII had/has a lot to do with rising income inequality.
Click to expand...

Then you don't believe in billionaires. There will always be people who can't care for themselves. That's why America is capitalist society but with social guardrails that we will continue to debate as to how many guardrails and who will pay for them.

I think Musk is worth his trillion. His accomplishments make our lives better. His companies create 160,000 jobs and his spcx IPO created 4400 new millionaires. Musk isn't done yet.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zak
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top