Rain

Run-n-Gun said:
If you call long range forecasting "Critical thinking". When the local paper, youtubers and DOE, state the sky is falling the 1st of April before the rains are complete, there needs to be some criticism of the accuracy of the reporting. I don't put too much faith in the science of long range forecasting. A crap shoot at best. Especially here in the PNW. In western WA, we still could have a gloomy June. The 4th of July pyro's, irresponsible campers and the fires that result, are the ones who need to be reeled in.
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Had nothing to do with "long-range forecasting", had everything to do with lack snowpack and SWE available to keep reservoirs full beyond May. Those who looked at those data points and didn't just trust the naysaying of a particular blogger demonstrated some critical thinking.
 
Canuck from Kansas said:
Had nothing to do with "long-range forecasting", had everything to do with lack snowpack and SWE available to keep reservoirs full beyond May. Those who looked at those data points and didn't just trust the naysaying of a particular blogger demonstrated some critical thinking.
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Or perhaps the regulators of Cushman did not retain as much of the ample December-April precipitation (look at the chart) due to legally required water releases. In that case the low snowpack hits harder at Cushman than is the case at other reservoir systems not required to have substantial water releases prior to the May-July melt period.
 
DimeBrite said:
Or perhaps the regulators of Cushman did not retain as much of the ample December-April precipitation (look at the chart) due to legally required water releases. In that case the low snowpack hits harder at Cushman than is the case at other reservoir systems not required to have substantial water releases prior to the May-July melt period.
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Not just Cushman, going to be in issue with most other east side reservoirs that aren't fed by the Cascadian Aquifer. Reservoirs may have been full in late April/early May, but with scheduled and mandated drawdowns for irrigation, there hasn't been the snowpack/SWE, which normally would continue replenishing those reservoirs through May and into June, to help keep them full even after the drawdowns start.
 
Run-n-Gun said:
If you call long range forecasting "Critical thinking". When the local paper, youtubers and DOE, state the sky is falling the 1st of April before the rains are complete, there needs to be some criticism of the accuracy of the reporting. I don't put too much faith in the science of long range forecasting. A crap shoot at best. Especially here in the PNW. In western WA, we still could have a gloomy June. The 4th of July pyro's, irresponsible campers and the fires that result, are the ones who need to be reeled in.
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Long range forecasting is based on mathematical models and nothing more. As a one of my former colleagues (who was a duck population guy) used to say - "all models are flawed, some models are useful".
 
It is so refreshing smelling with this rain. Glad I cut the lawn Sunday. Also, do not have to water any plants for awhile. Rain is a good thing.
 
Mt. Hood got a dusting of snow, so did Timberline Lodge. I heard the downpour on the roof twice yesterday.
 
Looks like Idaho panhandle as well as eastern Oregon and Washington might get some active weather on Thursday. Hopefully it’s nothing severe.
SF

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Stonedfish said:
Looks like Idaho panhandle as well as eastern Oregon and Washington might get some active weather on Thursday. Hopefully it’s nothing severe.
SF
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Thanks for posting this Brian. Below is a forecast model that predicts the tracks of rotating thunderstorms which can cause severe hail or wind gusts. At first glance - I would say this particular model run is overplaying the risk as we rarely if ever see updraft helicity swath forecasts like this on the West Coast. If subsequent model runs continue to show this pattern - I would expect SPC to upgrade the risk for severe from marginal to slight.

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Following up with Brian's post from yesterday afternoon - SPC has issued a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening in SE Washington/NE Oregon. SPC Outlook The primary risk will be for strong outflow winds but greater than 1" hail is also a possibility. Yakima and the Tri Cities are in the slight risk box while Bend and Spokane are in the marginal risk area.

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The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the risk area in this morning's update which now includes Bend in the slight risk box as well as add a 2% tornado risk though the primary threat will remain severe wind gusts. They are anticipating storms merging together in a line with some rotating updrafts. This setup is not as common as it is in other parts of the US. Anyone recreating out in that neck of the woods today should pay close attention to the weather. Day One

The same setup (a closed upper level low) produced heavy rain, wind and lightning in parts of Southern Oregon and Northern California yesterday afternoon/evening.

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Screenshot from My Radar as of a few minutes ago. Looks like Oregon is getting some activity.
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European model for tonight.
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Anyone on the board getting any active weather in your area?
SF
 
ktvz.com

Severe thunderstorms batter Harney County with destructive winds and hail

HARNEY COUNTY, Ore. (KTVZ) — Severe thunderstorms are sweeping across Harney County this afternoon, bringing dangerous winds, large hail, and rapidly changing conditions to the region. Central Oregon is also experiencing strong storms, thunder, and toppled trees, and our weather team is tracking...
ktvz.com ktvz.com
Some action for sure
 
High clouds and the wind is kicking up here south of Olympia. You can tell a change is coming.

I'll shortly be moving my tomato seedlings/plants back inside. I’ve been hardening them off and now sunbathing time is over.
 
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