And neither did I.
Weather forecast-who do you trust?
- Thread starter iveofione
- Start date
And neither did I.
Uptonogood
PNW raised
I did a few years in Air Force weather as a tech, learned enough to read a systems map and radar returns. I piece together some forecasts. Mike’s Weather Page has a large number of maps and stuff, neat to view. NWS is generally good and I like Weather Bug for its lightening tracking. My favorite in MyRadar Pro, gives systems, forecasts and current weather. Down this way (NE Florida) we don’t have the complicated geographical variables posed by the Olympic and Cascade mountains, the offshore ocean currents streaming, and convergent zones like the NW. It really is a tough place to get a good extended forecast.
spaghettimodels.com
Mike's Weather Page... powered by Firman Power Equipment!
For fishing purposes I like to watch the WU 10-day graphics for a sense of the trends. Warming, cooling, drastic shifts, and wind patterns help me decide the where and when. On the day before and day of, I like the NWS pinpoint and windy app. Inside of 24 hours those two are reasonably accurate for the areas I frequent.
As a severe weather enthusiast and all around weather geek, I agree with what others have said, especially about reading the NWS forecast discussion. I have found windy.com to be a user friendly site to compare various forecast models and for point forecasts. If you really want to geek out, one could dive a little deeper into the various models with a site like College of Dupage has: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Regardless of all of the online options available, I always factor in NWS as these guys are pro's and have all of the best tools.
Adrian M
Steelhead
Almost all of these sites end up using similar models to forecast weather especially when you use graphical representations. Typically not a lot of interpretation by a human when you look beyond 2-3 days. What I like about the NWS forecast discussion is you get a better sense of what will happen regionally for the next 24 hours, 48 years and a few days after. But I guarantee you even professional meteorologists know that beyond 2 days is a crapshoot when it comes to forecasting location, intensity and even types of weather.
On Friday , the weather app on my phone said rain all weekend. At my house on Saturday there was no rain. I got to mow my lawn and edge the grass and toss the frisbee and football around with my neighbor.
Point being a forecast tool like all those are guidelines and just one tool that you can use. There are local effects that impact what type of weather you will see. For instance the Puget Sound convergence zone is the big local effect here.
Weather is fun to talk about. I’m a real socialite at parties and groups.
On Friday , the weather app on my phone said rain all weekend. At my house on Saturday there was no rain. I got to mow my lawn and edge the grass and toss the frisbee and football around with my neighbor.
Point being a forecast tool like all those are guidelines and just one tool that you can use. There are local effects that impact what type of weather you will see. For instance the Puget Sound convergence zone is the big local effect here.
Weather is fun to talk about. I’m a real socialite at parties and groups.
I use NWS and Wind Alert.
Wind is the most important factor to me. I’m not much concerned with temps or weather conditions such as rain where I prefer to fish. Wind matters the most.
SF
Wind is the most important factor to me. I’m not much concerned with temps or weather conditions such as rain where I prefer to fish. Wind matters the most.
SF
This is just about the way I do it. I only look at the weather page to see if its going to be warm outside. I gave up going fishing when it's cold out. And Viola is my mothers name.I walk outside; look to the north, the south, the east, and the west; look at the trees and look at the clouds; wet my finger and hold it up…viola!!
Weather forecast is done.
Adrian M
Steelhead
That’s what we in the industry call a weather observation. HahaI walk outside; look to the north, the south, the east, and the west; look at the trees and look at the clouds; wet my finger and hold it up…viola!!
Weather forecast is done.
Despite all of the dire predictions Saturday was beautiful, a good day for a walk and some outside work with the tractor and blade. About 9:00 pm I went out with a big light for an eyeball check and the ground was white! This morning was cold but sunny and the wind was blowing ice crystals through the air that looked like glitter. The latest forecast is for lows in the teens for the next 3 night! That's pretty damned cold for April. Spring is being rather bashful this year.
DoesItFloat
Life of the Party
Accu
Same here. I'm watching it snow on the mountain out my front window as I type.
Phil Fravel
Steelhead
I also fallow him. He seems to be right on most of the time
How far into the future are weather forecasts skillful? And the weekend forecast.
This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topicscliffmass.blogspot.com
Cliff Mass' weather blog and podcasts are quite interesting.
In previous entries he has discussed the limitations of 'pin-point' predictive accuracy associated with insufficient data resolution and modeling (which can have severe life and property protection implications for storm track prediction in particular).
The NWS prediction for graupel precip here is occurring as I write.
And finally, regarding the public's disgruntlement about weather prediction...."In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king".
FinLuver
Native Oregonian…1846
But, it is a great forecast as to "weather" I go fishing or not...
Wayne Kohan
Life of the Party
The snow at my house in south Kennewick is much deeper than at your house it appears. I'll have to scrape a couple inches of snow from my truck before I go play tennis this morning.