Weather forecast-who do you trust?

iveofione

iveofione

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One of the first things I do in the morning is pull up the forecast for the local weather. It is an effort to get some idea of what to expect for the day. This morning I first checked the NOAA prediction which forecast both day and night weather. Today's report for the next 7 days contains the word 'snow' 13 times! Looking out I see bright blue skies with a few puffy clouds and temps in the mid 30's. The NOAA forecast for the area is always doom and gloom compared to others and is often very misleading, not to be trusted at all.

On the other side of the coin is the weather.com 15 day forecast and it doesn't contain the snow word even once! And it shows no actual precipitation until April 20. I know which one I would rather believe but the actual truth probably lies somewhere between the 2 with the weather.com model being more accurate. A third channel-the Weather Underground is consistently a better choice as it post projected wind speeds which are the real difference in whether we fish or not. Checking all 3 gives a pretty good overview of what to expect but if you use Olympics scoring you throw out the NOAA results and average the other two.
 
Weather underground is usually closest to correct in our location for prediction, but some of the stations may give wacky current readings. Then I go to NOAA for outlook, windspeed and temp at the airport. I use the DOE freshwater monitoring for air and water temperatures on location. Looks like a turbulent 4-6 days, so snow up in the mountains would be nice outcome, we're way on the low side.
 
Nws forecast discussion, wunderground, ventusky...various radar loops.
I work outside, so been keeping a pretty close eye on weather for decades.
 
NWS long range area forecasts.
Back in my climbing days I learned by word of mouth and experienced that a cloud cap on Mt Rainier almost always meant precipitation in 24 hours.
I am 6 miles from a NOAA weather observation stations and 3 miles from a county weather observation station that are both selections in various weather apps.
AccuWeather has a pinpoint 60 min precipitation forecasting feature for my "community" that is quite accurate, and also seems accurate when I travel.
Snow...😍
 
One of the problems with NOAA at least for marine waters is the forecast are for a pretty large area while reasonably accurate for the area there large misses in both timing and speed of predicated winds at specific locations. I currently use iWindsurf for my marine forecasts.

For local land weather usually go with weather.com (like the hourly forecasts).

curt
 
NOAA NWS forecasts tend to be skewed to worst case weather scenarios. Federal meteorologists catch hell when they underestimate weather impacts, and few people get upset when better conditions occur. I have never been pissed off sitting on the lake when the 70% precipitation event doesn't occur.

There are also severe limitations in weather forecasting to the limited number of weather monitoring stations relative to the sheer size of North America and significant effects of geographical differences creating microclimate complexity. Without high resolution data (and computer models) weather modelers must paint their forecasts with a very broad brush.

Like Ive, I pay most attention to predicted wind conditions.

As for the rest of it....it's like gambling; 'you pays yer money, and you takes yer chances'.
 
I used to use Weather Bug for readings, but when they changed over to some other stuff, I cancelled them out. I have used Weather Channel for a long time and I some what trust them over a few others. I looked at the next weeks weather. Supposed to be in the mid 30's to freezing for the next 7 days. Probably get some snow also. Ah, Montana weather. If you don't like it wait a while and it will change to something you don't like.
 
I don’t care what the weather forecast is. I’m going fishing come Hell or high water.

Well, unless the water’s too high…then it’ll be to Hell with it.

7DF3CA78-1E42-4E7C-920B-6F742CBC52FA.jpeg
 
I gave a derisive snort when NOAA predicted snow starting mid-afternoon on June 16th, 2014 at East Lake, Oregon. I might have believed early morning, or overnight, but afternoon?
Photo was taken at 4:40PM 6/16/2014 at Cinder Hill Campground/East Lake.
Capture.JPG
 
Smalma said:
One of the problems with NOAA at least for marine waters is the forecast are for a pretty large area while reasonably accurate for the area there large misses in both timing and speed of predicated winds at specific locations. I currently use iWindsurf for my marine forecasts.
Click to expand...


This is quite true, but Noaa also offers a pinpoint option where you can drag a cursor on a map to a desired location and it leads to a much more accurate forecast, especially for marine waters. It's amazing how different the general zone forecast and the pinpoint forecast can be. This is often the difference between a go and a no go for an ocean trip for us.

For my job weather is a crucial aspect. I use a combo of the Noaa pinpoint, and the Windy app. I generally look at the pinpoint first, and if I see anything concerning I'll then look at Windy to see how it lines up. Windy can show hour by hour forecasts which can be extremely handy.

Here's a link to the pinpoint. Can zoom out on the map and pick any location that suits your needs. This link is to the location I have bookmarked for our standard Inshore bottomfish trips, but can be changed easily.


National Weather Service

marine.weather.gov marine.weather.gov
 
cliffmass.blogspot.com

How far into the future are weather forecasts skillful? And the weekend forecast.

This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics
cliffmass.blogspot.com cliffmass.blogspot.com

Cliff Mass' weather blog and podcasts are quite interesting.

In previous entries he has discussed the limitations of 'pin-point' predictive accuracy associated with insufficient data resolution and modeling (which can have severe life and property protection implications for storm track prediction in particular).

The NWS prediction for graupel precip here is occurring as I write.

And finally, regarding the public's disgruntlement about weather prediction...."In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king".
 
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NWS/NOAA - good enough for airlines is good enough for me.

I pity the poor meteorologist who has to try making forecasts in the PNW. I was in Boston a few years ago and they predicted the next day temps would dive about 1:30 pm and snow start accumulating by 2:15pm. They were accurate to within 2 minutes. In the PNW they can not even predict the day of snow events with much accuracy at all.
 
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