Nope, it was shit data. My understanding is that they based it on early tribal fishing reports at the mouth that coincidentally came in during record low water levels. That's the case for the Quilleute at least.
Myself and most other's I know in that river system pointed out that once the rain started the fish would move in and up and the run would be closer to the anticipated numbers, especially given the early hatchery run on the Bogachiel was the best it's been in a number of years. My understanding is that was the case in several other systems as well.
Purely anecdotal, I saw very large numbers of steelhead later in the season, enough that I have to believe the return was any smaller that prior years, if not bigger. Maybe it was weather making them easier to spot, who knows? But they were everywhere in the runs downstream of my house. I caught a bunch as bycatch during Springer season which has never happened to me in the 6-7 years that I've been all-in on targeting Springers.
The data used for decision-making seems ridivculously poor on the WA coastal rivers. I have been the primary cash funder of the TU/WSI summer snorkel surveys on the Elwha that lead to the article's on the natural return of summer-runs as I focus my conservation efforts on things that result in public goods. I have told several leaders in that sector that I would contribute material funding to projects that would provide real data for making harvest decisions on the OP. Crickets so far.
Very cool
@Thomas Mitchell . I appreciate all of your thoughts.
If WDFW had a river by river plan, they would have to tell people how they go about making their decisions regarding things such as early closures, proposed seasons, proposed hatchery plants etc. If they did this, I see a scenario where the process of approving these plans takes longer that the plans would be good for. I base this on what I have seen with regards to many groups wanting to take control of these decisions that the Department is charged with making.
At the same time, I don't think that recovery or improvement in any way will be found in the WDFW rule book or hatcheries.
My contention is that angler/fish groups see WDFW as the reason for fish declines and therefore changes to WDFW policy is the way to reverse the trend. There is a lot of focus and energy paid to sportfishing rules and hatchery policy. I have never seen any compelling data to support the position that any meaningful increase to wild anadromous fish returns can be attained by changing the sportfishing rulebook or hatchery policy.
The reasons for decline are more often than not, outside of WDFW's purview. They simply do not have oversight of the most detrimental causes of our fish declines. They make a shit ton of mistakes at WDFW in many ways, policy, public relations, communication.... It goes on and on. They are not the agency that should take the blame when it comes to permitting dams, building and maintaining dikes, creating timber harvest rules, overseeing timber harvest, permitting development, regulating pesticides, regulating farm practices, culverts, road building and maintenance, groundwater withdrawals, surface water withdrawals..............
I contend that constant and consistent effort to change hatchery policies and the sportfishing rulebook have served to make the department look worse than it is, with little to no potential improvement to wild fish runs. This has created a fertile environment for groups such as The Humane Society of the US (animal rights) to try and change the department from one that manages fish and game populations to one that seeks to end opportunities to fish and hunt. They state it in their own objectives. When someone tells you what they are, believe it.
I have never been one to go crazy about animal rights activists. They have their own views and we live in a country with a pluralistic form of government. However, I don't agree with them. I love to fish and hunt. They seek to end both of those activities. On a personal level, I know that I need to make my voice stronger than theirs. I need to stand up for fishing and hunting as something that the state values over the individual fish or animal. I can't support fish conservation groups who align with them.