Tide question

Stonedfish

Stonedfish

Known Pluviophile
Forum Supporter
Need some input from the tide experts.
So I went fishing this morning. I’ve fished this beach multiple times over the years. I fished the same tide two weeks ago. Today’s tide prediction was 2” less than two weeks ago.
Two weeks ago, there was plenty of beach to fish. Today, the entire beach was underwater and up into the trees. To my eyes, it looked 1.5 to 2’ higher than my previous trip.
There was a coastal flood warning, but the rivers and creeks were dropping with no rain the past few days. We are about ten days out from the first series of king tides. No wind today pushing the water up.
So what causes the tide to be that much higher than predicted? I’ve been hearing about Kelvin waves recently related to El Niño and there is a big low off the coast. The moon obviously plays a part as well.
@Cabezon or any others have any input?
Thanks
SF
 
I have no idea, I don't think the Kelvin waves are pushing a 1.5ft rise this far north. But the variation between predicted and actual definitely explains the disclaimer at the top of the page on the tide site i use:

1794607893943.png

Hopefully someone smarter than me can provide some explanation.
 
Not an expert on this topic, but I think Kelvin waves effects were supposed to max out at 3-6" on the WA coast. Less in Puger Sound, fundamentally we'd see warm water along with the sea height. Think it's more likely wind direction and pressure effects?
 
Tallguy said:
Not an expert on this topic, but I think Kelvin waves effects were supposed to max out at 3-6" on the WA coast. Less in Puger Sound, fundamentally we'd see warm water along with the sea height. Think it's more likely wind direction and pressure effects?
Click to expand...

That is what I’ve read about Kelvin waves as well. Maybe a combination of many factors but the difference today versus two weeks ago was considerable.
SF
 
Predictions are made with the assumption of all other factors being constant, which leaves a lot of room for real-world variables.

NOAA predictions and observed water levels for Bremerton show a synchronous tendency but higher water levels...
Screenshot_20261113_132808_Chrome.jpg
Maybe a rapidly-dissipated low pressure area off the coast?
 
Atmospheric pressure, wind direction and strength can affect tidal timing and magnitude, particularly in an area such as Puget Sound and interconnected fjords, canals, narrows and other chokepoints such as around islands, etc.

Stonedfish said:
So I went fishing this morning. I’ve fished this beach multiple times over the years. I fished the same tide two weeks ago. ...
Thanks
SF
Click to expand...

Then again, if you share the specific location of said beach and fly patterns you were using we may be able to provide a more definite answer to your query...
 
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As Tallguy mentioned already I think it's because of the deep low pressure system off the coast pushing water outward, combined with strong onshore winds, exacerbating the effect.
Check out Ventusky (which thanks to you making me aware of it Stonedfish).
 
I am changing my answer: I thought about it some more, and I figured out that all the SRC on your favorite beaches have eaten so many anchovy that there is no place for the water to go but up!

Time to move on to the next topic, this ones done.
 
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