Totally fair, but also not common for the average fan.
NFR NFL 2023 Season
- Thread starter Evan B
- Start date
Non-fishing related
I know nothing about football analytics, but that's not how statistics work. If the overall average on 2-point conversions is 55%, then that is the statistical probability of making any individual attempt at a 2-point conversion. Whether a team makes or doesn't make its first 2-point attempt, the odds of making the second attempt remain the same as the first or any other attempt: 55%.
If you flip a coin, the odds are 50% that it will be heads. If it's tails, on the next flip it's still a 50% chance of coming up head. But if you flip it 100 times, the odds overall are that half will be heads and half will be tails. But the odds on each individual flip remains 50%.
Know what you are saying (and I hate analytics and do not buy it), but what you are describing are for random events, where nothing changes. The coins lip is 50:50 (ie, 0.5), and the odds of two heads in a row is actually 0.25 (0.5 x 0.5).
The 2 point conversion is not a random event and I suspect they have some modeling that demonstrates that the odd increase after a missed first try because the offense makes adjustments to what the defense did and so second tries are more successful. Not sure I buy it in any given circumstance, I think you need to account for the particular opponent (analytics does not do that) and the defensive schemes they run and game/moment conditions.
I tend to think analytics makes managers (baseball)/coaches (football) make bad decisions at bad times, course, I have no analytics to back that up.
Go Chiefs!!
Dr. Magill
Life of the Party
How can a coin flip not be 50:50 every flip
when it lands on its side...
Yard Sale
Life of the Party
The going for 2 thing has nothing to do with odds. Its all about knowing your situation.
If you miss on the first TD then you still have a chance to go for 2 on the second TD and still tie.
If you only go for 1 on the first TD, then on the second TD if you for 2 its win or lose, no tie.
Better to go for it on the first TD and know your situation.
If you miss on the first TD then you still have a chance to go for 2 on the second TD and still tie.
If you only go for 1 on the first TD, then on the second TD if you for 2 its win or lose, no tie.
Better to go for it on the first TD and know your situation.
From the sounds of some , I don’t hear much joy , but what the hell keep on bitching , like that will help .
In the words of the sage "anyways, we exhausted this topic like 100 pages back."
He is a stud , but hero ball doesn’t work , that fumble could have very well put the game out of reach , he’s done that way to often . Not so much last night , but it’s cost them games before .
Yeah, but when no one else seems to have a pulse, I get why that happened (gross exaggeration obviously). I'm not so sure that was a "him" problem but more a "those around him" problem.
Just responding to your suggestion we all stop watching. Carry on.
Anyways, I'll do everyone a solid and wait til next season to discuss football again.
I didn't say we should all stop watching it. I plan to continue to do so because I enjoy the show and it never induces me to piss and moan. YMMV.
He’s shown a lot more poise this year , not trying to do it all , that has been the knock on him . Can he win a SB , sure, but IMO he’s got two or three better QB’s , and teams in his way . Not an expert at all with what’s wrong with the Bills not being able to get over the hump . It sure appeared down the stretch they totally got away from what was working for them .
It’s a lot more enjoyable to watch a game , and forget about things you have absolutely no control over .
Chris Johnson
Steelhead
Keith Jackson got his start here as well, doing WSU and Husky sports. He did news here for komo as well.