Stonedfish-
The Nisqually tribal hatcheries are "Kalama" and "Clear Creek" but don't where to find returns (NWIFC maybe). Given the recent change in hatchery management - from the Nisqually Stock Profile in the draft 2022 PS Co-manager PS Chinook plan "starting in 2021 hatchery gates remain closed in August to promote strays to support total escapements on spawning grounds at or above 3,500." So not a source of potential run-size in-season information.
Not sure the creel checks are much more informative. From the most recent WDFW mark selective summer Chinook reports that I could find (2020) for the creel information in MA 13 I found the following - "Unlike the other survey designs, Baseline Sampling does not provide a means for generating in-season or immediate post-season estimates of fishery total catch or effort."
So are potentially left with the in-river tribal catches. It is unknown whether the information has been collected in a manner to allow a meaningful in-season update (ISU).
To out of basin potential sources of the strength of the PS Chinook returns could be Lake Washington or Elliot Bay. As of the 22nd of August, about 6,000 Chinook have been counted over the locks (pre-season forecast of 5,207). According to the List of agreed to Fisheries (LOAF) the sport fishery was scheduled to open the first week of August depending on the results of the ISU (tribal test net fishery) with the second week listed as closed. Ultimately the fishery was allowed for both weeks - ISU above expectations?
An interesting aside from the Nisqually profile. Between 2004 and 2020 the Nisqually chinook escapement (hatchery and wild) only reached that 3,500 twice. Further the information provided regarding the egg to juvenile migrant survivals in the majority of the years is so low that those spawners are not producing enough juveniles/spawner to replace themselves.
Curt