As you the limit on our Southern United State (SUS) fisheries are based on that year's forecasts, according to the Co-managers fisheries plan if the Snohomish basin forecast is above 4,900 (3,600 for the Sky and 1,300 for the Snoqualmie) the allowable SUS rate is 10.3%. If the forecast is between that 4,900 level and 3,250 (2,015 for the Sky and 1,132 for the Snoqualmie) the allowable rate is 9.3%. If like the past year the forecast is below that 3,200 level the SUS rate will be 8.3%.Revisiting this thread trying to read through all the very detailed information here and better understand it all. With the ESA allocations that began this year, how would one calculate the minimum escapement of Chinook to the Snohomish that will leave us with a chance of avoiding this mess again?
Unfortunately, the Snohomish Chinook like the majority of the PS stocks are not very productive it is hard to project what escapements would be required to achieve the above forecasts (dependents on things like flooding, ocean conditions, etc.) but I would say on the average if the escapements are similar or a bit below those breakpoints 4,900 or 3,250 laid out above we can expect the corresponding SUS rate. That low productivity also means that the populations may not rebuild very rapidly.
Curt