NFR How's the housing market where you live?

Non-fishing related
jasmillo said:
No, not really. A single question…do you think the market will solve this issue on it’s own?

The other sentences with question marks were follow ups on the same question. If we were chatting in person, that’s how the conversation might flow. Unfortunately, we’re chatting via a forum and not in person though.
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Gotcha.

Seems the Fed will continue to raise rates and things will cool.

As far as Bozeman, in talking with agents there is still a TON of demand from all over the country. Even before Yellowstone, we were seeing crazy growth but that show was like throwing gas on the fire. People want a piece of this lifestyle and there are no other places in the lower 48 that really compare. And being a relatively small community, it doesn't take much of an increase in demand to wreck supply.

On top of that, the President at MSU is focused on growth. We've added 4000 students over the last 10 years. Housing has not kept up and it has added to the strain. It also hedges against a total collapse.

I'm in a 4 bedroom, 2700 sq' home. In 2016, we paid $370k. Our agent said if we listed today, $859k. I've seriously thought about selling now and worst case scenario, living in the camper for spring- summer. This would free us up from a major contingency we have when making offers. My mother-in-law owns a house here so we could also split our time. Just thinking about that though makes me a bit uncomfortable.

Crazy.
 
swimmy said:
Gotcha.

Seems the Fed will continue to raise rates and things will cool.

As far as Bozeman, in talking with agents there is still a TON of demand from all over the country. Even before Yellowstone, we were seeing crazy growth but that show was like throwing gas on the fire. People want a piece of this lifestyle and there are no other places in the lower 48 that really compare. And being a relatively small community, it doesn't take much of an increase in demand to wreck supply.

On top of that, the President at MSU is focused on growth. We've added 4000 students over the last 10 years. Housing has not kept up and it has added to the strain. It also hedges against a total collapse.

I'm in a 4 bedroom, 2700 sq' home. In 2016, we paid $370k. Our agent said if we listed today, $859k. I've seriously thought about selling now and worst case scenario, living in the camper for spring- summer. This would free us up from a major contingency we have when making offers. My mother-in-law owns a house here so we could also split our time. Just thinking about that though makes me a bit uncomfortable.

Crazy.
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My wife and I have had the same discussiins (less the living with in-laws - not happening!). We bought are house for 510k in 2013 and the although we have not talked with a realtor, Zillow and Redfin estimates of market price are both at 1.25m. I’m not going to sell and dump the money back into a new place or rent in some other inflated market though. So I sit and hold waiting for the right time to move. Bozeman is a tough one. I have been sporadically viewing basic market metrics over the last year in your area because of my own interest and there are signs of some softening I think. Time on market is starting to bump, etc. Tough to see how the demand stays this high go forward. If you are looking to sell and have the option to bank that money ..or the majority of it without immediately pushing into another inflated property, the timing might not be bad.
 
Buy low, sell high, buy low, sell high, no…this time is not different…these cycles are “ constantly repeating “ do the math, go back in time, every 8 to 10 years, look for the peaks and troughs,… past housing bubble,… dot, com,… daffodils, step outside the euphoria stage ( top )… if you are young, wait for the blood in the streets ( bottom ) when everyone is to scared to buy ( anything ) real money ( not debt) moves with these cycles, live local, think global…the foreign or forex market is the largest financial market in the world $6.6 trillion… daily… it’s total estimated worth 2022… $2,409,000,000 ( $2.409 quadrillion ), the of U.S. stock market average daily dollar volume $90 billion a day on a 21 day average… food for thought is the best diet.

www.businessinsider.com

Investing

What You Need To Know About
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
 
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I just read every page of this discussion. Wow!

After my divorce I rented for a while, and that was not good for me. In December 2019 my gf and I decided we best get back into the real estate market. We picked in-town Snohomish.
With kids out of the house, I thought of this house as pure investment. Walk downtown, bike trails and much easier commute compared to my old ferry commute from Whidbey.

4 months after buying I am working out of my home for COVID lockdown. Fast forward 26 months and happy we bought when we did. I think the estimate of this house is up $300,00. (For now anyway)

I plan to escape the I-5 corridor for the Quimper Peninsula in a few years. Until then, enjoy what we have.
 
swimmy said:
Gotcha.

Seems the Fed will continue to raise rates and things will cool.

As far as Bozeman, in talking with agents there is still a TON of demand from all over the country. Even before Yellowstone, we were seeing crazy growth but that show was like throwing gas on the fire. People want a piece of this lifestyle and there are no other places in the lower 48 that really compare. And being a relatively small community, it doesn't take much of an increase in demand to wreck supply.

On top of that, the President at MSU is focused on growth. We've added 4000 students over the last 10 years. Housing has not kept up and it has added to the strain. It also hedges against a total collapse.

I'm in a 4 bedroom, 2700 sq' home. In 2016, we paid $370k. Our agent said if we listed today, $859k. I've seriously thought about selling now and worst case scenario, living in the camper for spring- summer. This would free us up from a major contingency we have when making offers. My mother-in-law owns a house here so we could also split our time. Just thinking about that though makes me a bit uncomfortable.

Crazy.
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Need a couple brutal Montana winters to put an end to that shit.
 
creekx said:
Need a couple brutal Montana winters to put an end to that shit.
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I wonder how many folks moving there are actually living there year round?
Get your slice of Montana during the summer then hit the road south once the first snowflake flies?
SF
 
I flew into Bozeman in June of 2021 after a 5 year absence. The sprawl was shocking. But….. went to Prosser Wa over Christmas and that is now part of the Tri Cities.
No escape unless you really want to escape.
 
It's absolute garbage here in the Flathead Valley. A 2 BR, 1 BA shit box cabin on very little land will run you $600,000+. Rent for a studio apt is $1,200+. And that's just Kalispell. Whitefish buying/renting is even more absurd. Another huge problem is that there isn't any inventory. Everyone who owns a rental property here is leasing it as a VRBO for $1,000 per night (and getting it). Out-of-State newcomers here are hated with a passion, esp those from the West Coast. When I moved here from WA, the 1st thing I did was get MT plates on my rigs. All crime and traffic violations are blamed on "newcomers". It's a mess. I can't imagine that it's in any way sustainable. It's got to all come crashing down eventually.
 
Canuck from Kansas said:
Cashing in from the Bay area, at least that's what is happening here.

We're actually thinking of cashing in from here (Bend, OR) - we bought at the bottom of the crash in 2012, and moving to a "less" desirable area.

Cheers
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Similar boat for us, bought a lot and built in W Bend back in 04, considering bailing and moving back up to Western WA where we came from. Wont get the benefit of a low cost destination equity transplant scenario but will be closer to family, kids and longtime friends. Also getting exhausted by the wildfire smoke in C OR. Non stop, fire season starts much earlier and prescribed burns are much more aggressive so WF Smoke off and on almost 9 months out of the year, we are sick and tired of the smoke. Not to mention Bend and surrounding have absolutely blown up over the last 20 years, overuse and overrun in almost every direction. For solitude I head East by SE into the OR Outback where you can still get lost.
 
Breck said:
It's absolute garbage here in the Flathead Valley. A 2 BR, 1 BA shit box cabin on very little land will run you $600,000+. Rent for a studio apt is $1,200+. And that's just Kalispell. Whitefish buying/renting is even more absurd. Another huge problem is that there isn't any inventory. Everyone who owns a rental property here is leasing it as a VRBO for $1,000 per night (and getting it). Out-of-State newcomers here are hated with a passion, esp those from the West Coast. When I moved here from WA, the 1st thing I did was get MT plates on my rigs. All crime and traffic violations are blamed on "newcomers". It's a mess. I can't imagine that it's in any way sustainable. It's got to all come crashing down eventually.
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The funny thing or maybe the question about the hate is how long do the 'hater transplants' have to be there before they earn their wings?
I have my county and an adjoining one on Facebook and find it funny to read a hater post and then look up their profile.
The last one had "graduate of Summerville High" listed.
"Summerville Union High School is a high school in Tuolumne, California."😊

I'm originally from Billings, a MT veteran, and have had my place in NW MT for 32 years. I also have a home in Spokane along with other investment properties so keep my residency in WA for tax reasons. (*I also pay non-resident MT income tax on a portion of my income that's generated there.)
That said, the hate used to be directed towards Californians but I've noticed a real change in attitudes towards my WA plates in recent years.
Personally, I think they should probably give me a big thank you for the property taxes I pay for schools, etc. while using little or none of the services short of roads and the landfill. :)
In closing, I'm not fond of the growth either but don't blame folks for wanting to make the change.
That said, leave the big city crap behind and don't look down on the small town folks as many would be the first to offer help if needed.
 
Evan B said:
I'll just say that buying my first house 10yrs ago is a decision I'm so glad I made. Had I not done that, I likely would have been permanently priced out of the market.
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Same! I bought a place just a year out of college (2009) and was kind of stretching myself at the time. I've refinanced to 15 year mortgages a couple times and now as rates continued to drop and now enjoy a super reasonable $1400/mo payment on a house that has more than doubled in value. Very fortunate timing, but I feel so bad for people just entering the housing market!

Unfortunately with our family expanding, we're nearing the time for something a bit bigger and looking at the $800k range for anything that's a significant upgrade. Housing prices could literally be the thing that determines if we decide to have a second kid or not. Wild times.
 
Like every where else it’s nuts here on Case Inlet Puget Sound.
Waterfront with a small house will run a minimum of 1.2 million.
I was lucky to get my place on the water
for a good price 22 years ago. Taxes in Mason County are quite
low compared to King, Pierce counties. Great fishing within an
hour or less drive time. I don’t see this bubble bursting anytime soon
because there is zero inventory and lots of cash looking for a place to go.
My realtor neighbor only takes cash buyers and for sellers he asks them
where are you moving to.
 
swimmy said:
Worse comes to worst?

DSC_4746(1).jpg
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There's a reason there's been a huge upswing in the nomadic lifestyle. That and tiny houses. Not quite the traditional American dream, but I think we'll continue to see more and more of both as house prices continue to rise.

It's been mentioned already, but the most likely cause of a market correction will be interest rates going up in an attempt to slow inflation down. It won't take much of a rate hike for these prices to be completely unaffordable to all but the wealthiest people.
 
Pink Nighty said:
All these numbers being thrown around is just hot spotting the PNW for Californians.

"See that baby? Only 1.2 mil for beachfront. If we sell the condo we can buy 3!"
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By the time you type it, it is sold/re-sold for much higher...
 
We're out in Sequim, on the Oly Pen. Super unaffordable and going up. The untethering of capital from the city has really impacted us.

Not quite Bozeman, but suffering the same afflictions as losing the ability of typical workers to make a decent living and afford housing.

Becasue it's so expensive to build (materials, labor and schedule delays), rezoning is currently not the catalyst folks think will lead to affordability. Like shown above, I believe it will lead to more expensive home on smaller lots.

I believe, we are in the midst of a cultural and social paradigm shift, not sure what will come out the other side, but it will be quite different than before.
 
headduck said:
I believe, we are in the midst of a cultural and social paradigm shift, not sure what will come out the other side, but it will be quite different than before.
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yep, just so much cash floating about, much of it driven by tech world. Here in Sunriver OR, homes selling in mere days, house prices have gone up 70% in two years...our broker has a waiting list of bay area techies wanting to buy in, every listing she gets is sold within a few days cash over asking, usually without buyers seeing the house, just based on her live video tour...sellers not taking any deals contingent on home inspections...buyer so cash heavy, they don't blink.
 
(Referring to surfnfish post )
Wow, that scenario tells me that VA loans don't have a chance of qualifying. Glad we bought here when we did.
 
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