Off the Charts

[Mike Cline]

Government predictions these days are always a bit suspicious as to the motivations behind them.

Hwy 89, the road into Yellowstone National Park is closed in several places due to flooding from the Yellowstone River which is exceeding its 100 year peak. The last reading at Corbin Springs was > 51,000 CFS which is approaching the physical limit of the river gage. The road from Gardiner to Mammoth is closed and all access to the NE quadrant of the park is closed.

USGS Current Conditions for USGS 06191500 Yellowstone River at Corwin Springs MT

Did the government predict this: Yes and No

NO:

• Yellowstone River above Sidney, Montana: 55 to 85% of normal
  • https://www.weather.gov/owp/2022NHA

YES:

• https://www.drought.gov/drought-sta...w-drought-conditions-summary-and-impacts-west
  • Check out map at: June–July Streamflow Forecast Volume for Western Watersheds in above report.

Although flooding always causes some damage, big floods like the Yellowstone is experiencing actually helps the fishery as is scours the river bed cleaning lots of algae and debris from the stream beed. It will be interesting to see how the Yellowstone (and many other local rivers) will change due to this year’s flooding.

 

[sal_the_salmon]

whats with all the tinfoil?? they are predictions, not absolutes.

 

[XLO]

Look up the definition of the word “forecast” and “prediction”. It sounds like you may be surprised!

 

[_WW_]

Look up the definition of the word “forecast” and “prediction”. It sounds like you may be surprised!

What's the penalty for being wrong?

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

Did the government predict this: Yes and No

NO:

• Yellowstone River above Sidney, Montana: 55 to 85% of normal
  • https://www.weather.gov/owp/2022NHA

...

Where did they get it wrong?

"Western U.S.

Mid-March is usually too early to determine spring flooding potential across the western United States due to snowmelt, since snowpacks at higher elevations may continue to build over the next several months."

Predictions are best guesses with available data - statement above makes it pretty clear it was too early to make predictions.

Not only was there significant May snow, we now have torrential June rains - predicting weather 2 and 3 months out is not an exact science, and no one claims it is.

cheers

 

[Guy Gregory]

Nobody predicted the weather we got in April, May, and June. Cooler and wetter than usual, yes. What we got, no.

Sinister motivations behind them??? What??

 

[Stonedfish]

I hope it stays cooler and wetter throughout the summer, at least for western WA.
We are a little over a year away from the extra hot shit we experienced last June.
SF

 

[dirty dog]

I had some trouble wading my favorite little blue line last week and is week I'm not gonna go fish it at all.
I'm gonna have to take the boat and go fish a blue gill pond

 

[krusty]

Nobody predicted the weather we got in April, May, and June. Cooler and wetter than usual, yes. What we got, no.

Sinister motivations behind them??? What??

A number of weather modeling programs forecast the PNW weather we are experiencing, though why anybody would expect some sort of concrete preparation is beyond silly.

Seismologists predict the outcome of the next 'big one' to hit the Seattle area and make recommendations about increasing structural building codes, as well as the necessity for massive retrofits on existing structures...but who is willing to spend incredible amounts of money on 'maybe'?

Of course when something bad happens somebody 'should have' prevented or prepared for the event...and the foolish conspiracy psychology erupts.

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

... and also, it sort of has been predicted:

What caused Yellowstone's 'unprecedented' flooding? Scientists saw it coming

Flash flooding in Yellowstone National Park early this week washed out roads and bridges and caused "significant" damage to the town of Gardiner, Montana.

www.cnn.com

And the original source if you care to wade through it:

Executive Summary | Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment

www.gyclimate.org

Cheers

 

[krusty]

responsible humans spend incredible amounts of money on "maybe" as a matter of course. this is probably because we have learned that when it comes to shit hitting the fan, "maybe" is the wrong question.

btw, word on the street is that the next "big one" is not a question of "maybe/maybe not" - which would imply it is also a question of "if?", rather than "when?" this is also true of floods. the houses floating downstream are undoubtedly from an era when people believed water could never get this high - and when the setback requirements were left up to them.

Exactly. But 'when' is the big question. Humans are largely reactive rather than proactive, especially when being proactive requires the outlay of large sums or change in lifestyle.

In our community some extremely expensive homes were built on a high sandy bluff above a stream that turns into a torrent every year that erodes the bluff above. The building approvals were denied by the planners, but the builders and residents had that overruled via political process...and now the homes are immediately adjacent to a sheer sandy cliff.

The residents, of course, now maintain it's the government's fault (and responsibility to indemnify) because government let them construct there.

The Florida beach condo debacles are another example.

Humans want what they want, and they want it NOW.

 

[MT_Flyfisher]

In case anyone is interested, here is today’s (Friday, June 17th) status report on Yellowstone. I believe they have made remarkable progress this week.

UPDATE: Yellowstone National Park continues efforts to recover from historic flooding; Limited reopening highly possible next week on park’s south loop with certain visitor entrance modifications - Yellowstone National Park (U.S. National Park Servic

park roads, closure, flood

www.nps.gov