NFR How's the housing market where you live?

Non-fishing related
I’m afraid the answer to much of this will end up being determined by zoning.
Single family residence are becoming a thing of the past in many urban areas. High density housing - it’s all over the news. Single family units are being dubbed as selfish. Just drive down I-5. Go to Ballard , Lynnwood, etc. Follow the light rail development. There are forces behind this!! Read the news!!!!!
(NOT the Huffington Post or CNN)
 
HauntedByWaters said:
Only a fool would argue that buying a house doesn’t take sacrifice and savings. What grinds my gears is all the owners of the world dismissing the massive issues facing the younger generations as if it is their problem because they didn’t make “sacrifices” or work hard enough like they did. This is nonsense and something you were told to think and say. You don’t back up this sacrifices claim with any data or anything real. Is it the avocado toast or the iPhones to blame?

Swimmy, the original poster of this thread, clearly didn’t make enough sacrifices in life because he can’t afford to upgrade his home in Bozeman. Shouldn’t have bought that nice Clacka or those fancy shorts Swimmy, you would have your dream home if only you had given up stuff. Maybe give up the internet for a while and eat rice and beans every day? Maybe give up fishing?

How does that make you feel Swimmy? Doesn’t it feel unfair for some stranger on the internet to dismiss your wants and needs as a need for sacrifice?

As I have stated, I am an owner, but I feel terrible for the younger generations trying to do what the generations before them did. It’s not the same nowadays. It’s a lot harder. The real question is why when the younger generations cry out on these issues that the older generations get so dismissive? It’s almost like they can’t stomach the truth.
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What would you like them to do about it?
 
Dr. Magill said:
What would you like them to do about it?
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Thanks for asking. I am not the expert but I think there are ways to over tax rental properties. Subsidize home owners that live in their property. Stop corporations from buying up neighborhoods all cash.

People need to question what home ownership is. Is the priority of home ownership to make the owner money? Or to provide a place for families to live?
 
I really like a moratorium on corporate purchases of single family homes. Obviously they will become rentals with a very steep rent. I don’t have an answer of how to avoid this. Tough decisions take some big gonads and I’m not seeing the right gonad size in current leadership. The I got mine and fuck you attitude is not helpful
 
IMHO something needs to change the paradigm regarding real estate. When many of us grew up the goal of having ownership of a 3 bedroom home with a white picket fence was obtainable - with sacrifice. That no longer exists. When the median price of a house is $1M e.g. King County, one needs to earn $300k/year to afford it. Not Happening. In King County the median family income is ~$100k. That equates to a $300k house. - nowhere near the median price of a house.

There have been some studies/analyses done about housing prices. "Moody’s Analytics shared with Fortune its proprietary analysis of U.S. housing markets. According to that analysis of 392 metropolitan statistical areas, 96% are “overvalued,” with 149 that are overvalued by at least 25%."

www.deseret.com

The U.S. housing market is historically overvalued. Moody’s says these cities may see prices drop up to 10%

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, recently told Fortune some cities — especially Boise, Idaho — could see home prices drop up to 10% over the next year or so.
www.deseret.com www.deseret.com

Wages do not support the current housing prices and the ability to be able to buy or rent something. Employers in urban centers will not be able to attract new employees or keep existing employees if they can not afford to live near by. Nurses, teachers, service industry, and other 'middle class' working people will not be able to live in the area they currently live. So they move out of the area and find employment elsewhere where housing costs (rent or ownership) are more in balance. Unfortunately it is happening right now as we speak. Does that mean the quality and/or availability of support/service is reduced? I think so...

Will employers adjust wages based on location? Will mortgage loans be changed so more people can afford one - 40 year loan? More governmental subsidy programs? Does a recession/real estate bubble need to occur - like the one in 2008? Will communal/multi-family living become the norm? Will the goal in life change from having a nest egg in one's home to have enough to retire? Will people obtain an education in a well paying field of employment rather than being employed in a field they love. Unfortunately I think the answer is yes to all of these.
 
HauntedByWaters said:
Only a fool would argue that buying a house doesn’t take sacrifice and savings. What grinds my gears is all the owners of the world dismissing the massive issues facing the younger generations as if it is their problem because they didn’t make “sacrifices” or work hard enough like they did. This is nonsense and something you were told to think and say. You don’t back up this sacrifices claim with any data or anything real. Is it the avocado toast or the iPhones to blame?
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Are you talking in general or specific to this thread? Cause I don't get that vibe from this thread at all. Actually I don't really get that vibe in general either but maybe your experience is different.

HauntedByWaters said:
Swimmy, the original poster of this thread, clearly didn’t make enough sacrifices in life because he can’t afford to upgrade his home in Bozeman. Shouldn’t have bought that nice Clacka or those fancy shorts Swimmy, you would have your dream home if only you had given up stuff. Maybe give up the internet for a while and eat rice and beans every day? Maybe give up fishing?
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I agree with this. And kind of the point I was making.

HauntedByWaters said:
Doesn’t it feel unfair for some stranger on the internet to dismiss your wants and needs as a need for sacrifice?
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Not really.
 
Dr. Magill said:
I really like a moratorium on corporate purchases of single family homes. Obviously they will become rentals with a very steep rent. I don’t have an answer of how to avoid this. Tough decisions take some big gonads and I’m not seeing the right gonad size in current leadership. The I got mine and fuck you attitude is not helpful
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Not a godnad problem, the biggest swinging pair cannot legislate solutions in a free market society in which any such attempts would generate howls about 'government overreach' and 'socialism.'
 
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It seems like there is so much money being made in real estate right now that there is no way to even reign it in. It’s like everybody knows it doesn’t make sense and things are fucked up but the possible solutions don’t even get a a discussion in the media because you know why…. Apparently the gods engineering this boom are willing to just let it go and see what happens because they can’t imagine ever having such a profitable situation again. For me it feels like that old expression “we are going to hell in a hand basket”
 
FontinalisFin said:
This, in the next 10-15 years there could be a lot of people underwater.
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Zak said:
Homes within commuting distance to Seattle are so high priced now that I am afraid to buy, because I think there will be a crash when the single family houses owned and lived in by Boomers start flooding the market.
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This effect is VERY likely to not occur, at least near Seattle. Just look at the population pyramid for the US:

en.m.wikipedia.org

Demographics of the United States - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

Mostly flat, especially in the 15-40 age groups who buy houses (or will buy houses in 10-15 years) , so I don't see much chance of "too many homes, not enough buyers" conditions in this data. Very little of a significant "Boomer bulge" in the age distributions that might create a bunch of excess inventory. Maybe only if tons of Boomers have multiple homes?

Excess inventory and dropping house prices from aging populations is occurring in those middle america locations with agricultural/rural economies where all the kids left. So some localized examples are happening and will keep occurring. Just unlikely for western WA if that's your plan.

I think the Boomer effect may be more true for trends in stock prices.. they do own very disproportionate portions of public companies that they will be selling for decades to fund retirement. Maybe that will put some long term downward pressure on prices. Houses are sort of close to 1 house for every couple of people so they track population closely, stocks not so much.
 
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HauntedByWaters said:
I’m not saying it doesn’t take sacrifice. How about for starters you guys list all the things you sacrificed to own your homes?
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Maybe those complaining about not owning should make a list of all the sacrifices they can and are willing to make to own a home. Many might find that it is less of a priority than they thought. Others may find different. Either way conceptualising your goals in list form is far more helpful than owners listing sacrifices for their own validation. One of the biggest sacrifices is to buy in a location you can afford at a level of ownership you can afford. Life isn't easy and neither is buying a home especially now days.
 
Tallguy said:
This effect is VERY likely to not occur, at least near Seattle. Just look at the population pyramid for the US:

en.m.wikipedia.org

Demographics of the United States - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

Mostly flat, especially in the 15-40 age groups who buy houses (or will buy houses in 10-15 years) , so I don't see much chance of "too many homes, not enough buyers" conditions in this data. Very little of a significant "Boomer bulge" in the age distributions that might create a bunch of excess inventory. Maybe only if tons of Boomers have multiple homes?

Excess inventory and dropping house prices from aging populations is occurring in those middle america locations with agricultural/rural economies where all the kids left. So some localized examples are happening and will keep occurring. Just unlikely for western WA if that's your plan.

I think the Boomer effect may be more true for trends in stock prices.. they do own very disproportionate portions of public companies that they will be selling for decades to fund retirement. Maybe that will put some long term downward pressure on prices. Houses are sort of close to 1 house for every couple of people so they track population closely, stocks not so much.
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I guess my thinking is that Boomers are disproportionately home owners, so when their homes go on the market there will be a bunch of new available inventory. But this is not my field so I could be totally wrong.
 
How many of us that own a home could afford to buy it at the current price? I certainly could not...

So when I do sell it, after taxes/fees and capital gains what could I buy? About half the house I live in now in a less desirable location. So why sell?
 
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Unless it's "different" this time (it's never different) prices will become much more reasonable in many areas. Some parts of the country have never been affordable and never will be. It's possible that King County is becoming one of those places. However, there are parts of this country that are WAY over priced and that will likely remedy it's self. Generally speaking, prices don't go up in perpetuity but it can take longer than some people have the patience for.
 
RCF said:
How many of us that own a home could afford to buy it at the current price? I certainly could not...

So when I do sell it, after taxes/fees and capital gains what could I buy? About half the house I live in now in a less desirable location. So why sell?
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100% agree.
Even owning a home outright now isn’t like living rent free. Is it cheaper then renting…..yes.
With that said, my monthly property taxes costs are now approaching my first mortgage on my place. Thanks McCleary! ;)
Still a great investment but there is nothing really cheap about owning a home when you consider upkeep, repairs, sweat equity etc.
SF
 
cody- said:
That there venn diagram of (a) places with affordable housing and (b) places with decent jobs you described are two hula hoops on opposite sides of a football field.
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Some folks will always see obstacles no matter what. The housing market is tough no doubt. That's when the tough get creative. In the age of telecommuting and the like I don't think the diagram is as you see it.
 
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