NFR AI - How It Will Affect Jobs In The Next 5 years

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Mossback said:
At the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum in Washington, D.C., Elon Musk declared that AI and humanoid robots, including Tesla's Optimus, will eradicate poverty by creating a post-scarcity world where currency loses relevance. Musk predicted that in 10 to 20 years, personal robots will make labor optional, shifting focus to hobbies.

Which is of course why he just got done asking for, and receiving a Trillion dollar pay package.
🤣
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And developing a "Tesla" pickleball paddle...talk about a visionary!
 
Regarding the tremendous investment being sunk into AI, most of it represents circular funding, with global AI chip powerhouse Nvida lending billions to it's primary clients who then use those funds to buy AI chips from Nvida, while the giant broker houses such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are lending billions to AI infrastructure ventures into which they are also merging their operations as stakeholders, essentially acting as both lenders and borrowers.
The size of these investments and how they are being conducted reflects the onward march to corporate dystopia.
 
I just started a fun sci-fi novel called Flybot by Dennis E. Taylor, who wrote the good and funny Bobiverse series.

It is a near future story where heavily regulated AI is common, and a rogue, unshackled AI accidentally on purpose gets loose.

Good story so far!
 
Evan B said:
How AI is affecting my job today:

Trying to shop to get a new office computer and finding out that RAM prices have been skyrocketing due to AI hogging all the resources.

We're taking several hundreds of percent increases on RAM. Going to be dang near the cost of what I was expecting to pay on the whole system just to get the RAM I want.
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So very true:


Both of my daughters built gaming computers this last spring. The components were not cheap. They have a friend that assembled them for the cost of a nice dinner. Those gaming computers are a lot more expensive not only for the components due to chip costs but also tariffs.
 
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RCF said:
So very true:


Both of my daughters built gaming computers this last spring. The components were not cheap. They have a friend that assembled them for the cost of a nice dinner. Those gaming computers are a lot more expensive not only for the components due to chip costs but also tariffs.
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AI companies are wanting to adopt the Google model, who design their own AI chips here in the US, have them made in Taiwan at TSMC, and then use them in their AI data centers with zero sales to the public.
It is thought that a primary reason China has yet to invade Taiwan is TSMC, the largest chip manufacturer in the world which is located there, has stated if Taiwan is ever invaded safeguards in place at the massive factories will ensure they will be 'unusable' for anyone else.
So China, which is investing heavily in building up it's own chip industry remains reliant on TSMC chips for the near future, who are building three massive chip manufacturing facilities in the US both to avoid import taxes and ensure corporate survival should China finally invade Taiwan.
Everything is linked...
 
This is the cliff alongside these huge investments in AI infrastructure:

"Venture capitalist Alex Davis is "deeply concerned" that too many data centers are being built without guaranteed tenants, according to a letter being sent this morning to his investors.
Why it matters: This critique is coming from inside the AI optimist camp.
  • Davis' firm, Disruptive, recently led a large investment in AI chipmaker Groq, which then signed a $20 billion licensing deal with Nvidia.
  • It's also backed such unicorn startups as Reflection AI, Shield AI and Gecko Robotics.
What he's saying: "The 'build it and they will come' strategy is a trap. If you are a hyperscaler, you will own your own data centers. We foresee a significant financing crisis in 2027–2028 for speculative landlords."
  • He adds that data center buildouts will put too much "stress on the system."
The bottom line: Data centers are becoming political flashpoints, primarily because of their impact on electricity prices.
  • Now, the investment community is also asking questions.
 
MicroSoft's data center in Chelan County to raise taxes for residents of Chelan and Douglas County as property tax in Malaga is diverted to fund MicroSoft's development.

https://www.yoursourceone.com/colum...cle_28138879-9264-4db9-8338-48316c8d9808.html

Hopefully, as a result of this we will have new Port District commissioners.

Big Tech is really EVIL. Don't any of them use the LIbrary or other local services??? Do they really need MORE MONEY???

Just for context.....here is the summary of MicroSoft's profits in 2025. That is PROFITS, not revenue. I guess that is why their data centers need taxpayers subsidies.

"Microsoft reported a net income of $108.1 billion for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, marking a 16% increase from the previous year."

Looks like there will be new Port Commissioners in the next election, but can the tax district be undone??

https://www.yoursourceone.com/colum...cle_29c954a7-f5c0-4c2a-a59a-c505b3c28e74.html
 
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509 said:
MicroSoft's data center in Chelan County to raise taxes for residents of Chelan and Douglas County as property tax in Malaga is diverted to fund MicroSoft's development.

https://www.yoursourceone.com/colum...cle_28138879-9264-4db9-8338-48316c8d9808.html

Hopefully, as a result of this we will have new Port District commissioners.

Big Tech is really EVIL. Don't any of them use the LIbrary or other local services??? Do they really need MORE MONEY???

Just for context.....here is the summary of MicroSoft's profits in 2025. That is PROFITS, not revenue. I guess that is why their data centers need taxpayers subsidies.

"Microsoft reported a net income of $108.1 billion for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, marking a 16% increase from the previous year."

Looks like there will be new Port Commissioners in the next election, but can the tax district be undone??

https://www.yoursourceone.com/colum...cle_29c954a7-f5c0-4c2a-a59a-c505b3c28e74.html
Click to expand...
I was comparing net profit margins the other day for various types of businesses. Grocery stores to gas, ti sporting goods, to… tech companies. 2024, AI said Microsoft net profit margin was 36-38%. One of, if not highest.
 
and on the positive side, AI is achieving breakthrough's in:
1. Making diagnoses for Alzheimer's and related diseases is on the road to becoming faster and cheaper with AI.
  • Researchers at a wide range of universities and health care institutions announced findings this year about how AI will help with future therapies and better detection in primary care.
  • For example, one study found that a specific gene is a cause of Alzheimer's — a discovery the researchers were only able to make because AI helped them visualize the three-dimensional structure of the protein.
2. Google released its AlphaGenome model to understand diseases better and lead to drug discovery.
  • The model was made possible by technical advancements that allow it to process long DNA sequences and provide quality predictions.
3. Advancements in humanoid robots' dexterity and human interaction this year could mean AI-enabled robots one day clean homes, keep people company, work in warehouses or provide care in health care settings, some observers are predicting.
  • General-purpose humanoids are still a ways off, but money is pouring into the technology and companies are looking to combine generative AI with physical capabilities.
4. Weather forecasting is more powerful than ever thanks to AI.
  • Researchers are combining AI with physics-based climate models to predict extreme weather that may happen every 1,000 years, also known as "gray swan" events.
  • Google released its most advanced forecasting model, which can generate forecasts eight times faster than before.
5. High demand for cement alternatives that are cost and emission-efficient led an MIT team to use AI to find new ingredients that can be used in concrete.
  • A machine-learning framework helped the team analyze scientific literature and more than one million rock samples to narrow down viable alternatives.
Zoom out: Many of the advancements were enabled by AI tools built outside traditional academic and government research institutions. That has put companies such as Google, Microsoft, Nvidia and OpenAI at the center of a new scientific revolution.
  • Google's investments in AI-driven science stretch back more than a decade. DeepMind's work led to a Nobel-winning breakthrough with AlphaFold2 — which predicts a protein's 3D structure — five years ago.
  • Google-affiliated scientists have been associated with six Nobel Prizes, three awarded in just the last two years.
Between the lines: The AI boom is also fueling a new generation of science startups. One buzzy company, Lila Sciences, has declared it's on a mission to "build scientific superintelligence."
  • Backed by deep-pocketed venture capital firms, the startup says it's using specialized AI software to come up with and direct experiments in real-world labs.
  • Another startup, Latent Labs, announced a frontier model earlier this month that it says can help design drugs and accelerate development timelines for pharmaceuticals by reducing wet lab work.
 
interesting..

"AI probably can’t do your job, a new study from Scale AI and the Center for AI Safety has found. Their research revealed that even the best artificial intelligence program could only autonomously complete 2.5 percent of projects it was given. The Remote Labor Index study asked a class of leading platforms, such as ChatGPT, Grok AI, Google’s Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude, and Manus 1.5, to complete a series of workplace tasks. They included creating floor plans, making games, and visualizing data. Programs failed half of the tasks by producing poor-quality work and were unable to complete a third of them entirely. Center for AI Safety director Dan Hendrycks said in a post on X, “While AIs are smart, they are not yet that useful: the current automation rate is less than 3 percent.” Researcher Jason Hausenloy told The Washington Post, “Current models are not close to being able to automate real jobs in the economy.” According to the Post, the research is a challenge to widespread predictions that AI will wipe out significant parts of the workforce. OpenAI boss Sam Altman said in July, “AI is for sure going to change a lot of jobs, totally take some jobs away, and create a bunch of new ones,” Yahoo Finance reports."
 
SurfnFish said:
and on the positive side, AI is achieving breakthrough's in:
1. Making diagnoses for Alzheimer's and related diseases is on the road to becoming faster and cheaper with AI.
  • Researchers at a wide range of universities and health care institutions announced findings this year about how AI will help with future therapies and better detection in primary care.
  • For example, one study found that a specific gene is a cause of Alzheimer's — a discovery the researchers were only able to make because AI helped them visualize the three-dimensional structure of the protein.
2. Google released its AlphaGenome model to understand diseases better and lead to drug discovery.
  • The model was made possible by technical advancements that allow it to process long DNA sequences and provide quality predictions.
3. Advancements in humanoid robots' dexterity and human interaction this year could mean AI-enabled robots one day clean homes, keep people company, work in warehouses or provide care in health care settings, some observers are predicting.
  • General-purpose humanoids are still a ways off, but money is pouring into the technology and companies are looking to combine generative AI with physical capabilities.
4. Weather forecasting is more powerful than ever thanks to AI.
  • Researchers are combining AI with physics-based climate models to predict extreme weather that may happen every 1,000 years, also known as "gray swan" events.
  • Google released its most advanced forecasting model, which can generate forecasts eight times faster than before.
5. High demand for cement alternatives that are cost and emission-efficient led an MIT team to use AI to find new ingredients that can be used in concrete.
  • A machine-learning framework helped the team analyze scientific literature and more than one million rock samples to narrow down viable alternatives.
Zoom out: Many of the advancements were enabled by AI tools built outside traditional academic and government research institutions. That has put companies such as Google, Microsoft, Nvidia and OpenAI at the center of a new scientific revolution.
  • Google's investments in AI-driven science stretch back more than a decade. DeepMind's work led to a Nobel-winning breakthrough with AlphaFold2 — which predicts a protein's 3D structure — five years ago.
  • Google-affiliated scientists have been associated with six Nobel Prizes, three awarded in just the last two years.
Between the lines: The AI boom is also fueling a new generation of science startups. One buzzy company, Lila Sciences, has declared it's on a mission to "build scientific superintelligence."
  • Backed by deep-pocketed venture capital firms, the startup says it's using specialized AI software to come up with and direct experiments in real-world labs.
  • Another startup, Latent Labs, announced a frontier model earlier this month that it says can help design drugs and accelerate development timelines for pharmaceuticals by reducing wet lab work.
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Did AI generate this information? ;)
 
SurfnFish said:
interesting..

"AI probably can’t do your job, a new study from Scale AI and the Center for AI Safety has found. Their research revealed that even the best artificial intelligence program could only autonomously complete 2.5 percent of projects it was given. The Remote Labor Index study asked a class of leading platforms, such as ChatGPT, Grok AI, Google’s Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude, and Manus 1.5, to complete a series of workplace tasks. They included creating floor plans, making games, and visualizing data. Programs failed half of the tasks by producing poor-quality work and were unable to complete a third of them entirely. Center for AI Safety director Dan Hendrycks said in a post on X, “While AIs are smart, they are not yet that useful: the current automation rate is less than 3 percent.” Researcher Jason Hausenloy told The Washington Post, “Current models are not close to being able to automate real jobs in the economy.” According to the Post, the research is a challenge to widespread predictions that AI will wipe out significant parts of the workforce. OpenAI boss Sam Altman said in July, “AI is for sure going to change a lot of jobs, totally take some jobs away, and create a bunch of new ones,” Yahoo Finance reports."
Click to expand...
The job impact is not that it will eliminate your job. It is that it will make YOU so much more efficient that there will not be the need for as many employees.

Back in the 1980's I took a job with the Forest Service that required developing presenting social, economic and ecological analysis on issues facing the Forest Service and the communities they affected.

To collect the needed information the Forest Service had a library service that sent a copy to every professional employee the current science publications. I could then order "paper copies" and also make a personal request for a Forest Service librarian to search the stacks at University of Washington and other forestry libraries for relevant documents.

You can imagine how long it took just to collect the data I needed and then I had to read all that stuff!!!

When the internet came in I could do searches for science documents on the internet, read the executive summary and decide if I wanted to download the copy. That made me much more efficient, but I now had to know how to do the searches on my own. The Forest Service librarian at the University of Washington found another job.

With AI in a few years, I will be able to ask specific questions about the information I need. Not looking for AI to tell me what to do, but it will be worth reading what it thinks is important. It will me to quickly focus on the important information needed for my analysis.

Back in the 1980's there were probably in Oregon and Washington about 40 folks doing the analysis. Today, for various reasons that number is down to two or three.

With AI I suspect that number will probably not go down much, but the number will never grow back to 40.

If your in a job with 40 people doing the work and AI can "help" you do your job. In the near future, within five years, there will be a lot less than 40 people doing that work.

The issue that economists are arguing about is how many NEW jobs AI will create. That is why Musk thinks everybody will be fly fishing to keep busy.

BTW.....The current Secretaries of Agriculture and Treasury agree with Musk.
 
The tech oligarchs are now working on the post AI world and worried about it.

Here is a post in the Wall Street Journal on a viewpoint of a post-AI future as viewed by the Tech Oligarchs. Worth Reading.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/why-the...c?st=vwMzT7&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Worth reading from several perspectives. One of which is these people really believe this?? They are the ones developing AI. They are the ones that will control it initially.

If money becomes worthless, from an economics perspective there must still be a method of allocating scarce resources. Outside of money, those are done at the point of a gun or through elected officials, which have the guns and “legal” authority to allocate the resources.

Communisum was the flip side of unlimited abundance. It was so bad at creating societal wealth that it allocated scarce resources so that virtually EVERYBODY was living a poverty level life.

How does it work with unlimited resources?? Land won’t be abundant, can’t make more of it. Privacy won’t be abundant. How do you allocate those resources when there is no money? How do those resources change hands when money is worthless?? Do people go back to trade?? That was how the apartments were handled in the Soviet Union when people wanted to upgrade their apartments.

If nothing is worth stealing, will there be a need for crime, except for evil, emotional reasons??

The comment is made that the transition will be bumpy!. That is an understatement.

How will the transition be handled in other countries controlled by cartels, religious governments, or just plain old fashion evil.
 
AI displacement in the real world:

My son, a Senior Director managing Search functions at Google with 19 years of tenure, was just informed he and the 200 person global team he manages is being RIF'd (reduction in force), their functions to be replaced by an AI platform coming on line.
My son had informed me over Xmas that this was coming, and having met his financial goals and being well over the long hours and constant churn, looked forward to some time off to explore his future path.
The majority of his team, however, will now have to scramble for jobs during a time in which the unemployed with similar skills will far outnumber the job openings for those skills, as AI continues to absorb jobs.
This year Google will RIF 25,000 positions across it's divisions, and will double that number going forward, the goal of every XL corporation investing billions in AI in order to reduce employee operating costs.
The rubber is hitting the road.
 
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