NFR Ukraine...Little Did I Know

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Putin's obvious calculation was there woud be a brief global outrage that China and Russian allies such as Turkey, Israel, Pakistan, India and others would provide cover for, and once he installed his puppet government any sanctions imposed by NATO and western allied countries would gradually ease as the world accepted Ukraine was now part of Russia.
Putin miscalculated and the invasion of Ukraine will prove to be the most signficant blunder of his dictatorship, ecause those sanctions will not fade away as long as Russia remains in the Ukraine, inflicting severe ongoing damage to Russia's economy, while Russian soldiers continue coming home year after year in body bags courtesy of an afrmed resistance supplied by the west with Stinger missles and small arms.
 
Dustin Chromers said:
We have a rich history of exploiting civil unrest abroad. Seems like the temperature is about right to do so in this situation. Besides it's way more PC to get a people to oust their leaders than it is to just off em.
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Not that I disagree with the promotion of civil unrest to make political change in this case but has the US learned enough from (many, including recent) past failures for this type of policy to be successful in Russia now? How many times has that policy been undertaken but miscalculated only to later lose interest or have it opposed by an incoming administration, abandoning its partners to be oppressed and "cleansed"?
 
SurfnFish said:
Putin's obvious calculation was there woud be a brief global outrage that China and Russian allies such as Turkey, Israel, Pakistan, India and others would provide cover for, and once he installed his puppet government any sanctions imposed by NATO and western allied countries would gradually ease as the world accepted Ukraine was now part of Russia.
Putin miscalculated and the invasion of Ukraine will prove to be the most signficant blunder of his dictatorship, ecause those sanctions will not fade away as long as Russia remains in the Ukraine, inflicting severe ongoing damage to Russia's economy, while Russian soldiers continue coming home year after year in body bags courtesy of an afrmed resistance supplied by the west with Stinger missles and small arms.
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... was probably a rational actor in the past but no more.
Too much power for too long and now his narcissistic urges have taken over.
You rarely see him smile but did you see how he smiled as he humiliated his minister in the recent session. Chilling.
He must be in a rage now, not getting his way quickly.
 
I don't know what these comments about Putin's irrationality are based on. It seems like projection, to me. He has already taken Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Is there any reason to think that will be reversed? I'm not aware of any. In many ways, it seems like he has already succeeded.

It's hard for me to get an accurate picture of Putin's agenda, because I'm only being exposed to our side of the story. As far as I can tell, he wanted Ukraine to be part of Russia, or at least a very close ally. Given the history of the countries, I can't imagine this would be for any reason other than resources. I think sentimental factors are being hugely overstated. The same goes for China and Taiwan.

My guess is that there was more progress on the NATO side than we are hearing about and that has created a sense of urgency. A hostile takeover has to be the least productive way to achieve his goals. It seems like it's just a land grab, at this point. In that case, any geographical area that he can seed with Russian apologists is a victory in itself. Unfortunately, he seems to be doing a good job at that.

What sources are folks here using to get a signal from the Russian side? I've only really seen things via western media.
 
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jaredoconnor said:
I don't know what these comments about Putin's irrationality are based on. It seems like projection, to me. He has already taken Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Is there any reason to think that will be reversed? I'm not aware of any. In many ways, it seems like he has already succeeded.

It's hard for me to get an accurate picture of Putin's agenda, because I'm only being exposed to our side of the story. As far as I can tell, he wanted Ukraine to be part of Russia, or at least a very close ally. Given the history of the countries, I can't imagine this would be for any reason other than resources. I think sentimental factors are being hugely overstated. The same goes for China and Taiwan.

My guess is that there was more progress on the NATO side than we are hearing about and that has created a sense of urgency. A hostile takeover has to be the least productive way to achieve his goals. It seems like it's just a land grab, at this point. In that case, any geographical area that he can seed with Russian apologists is a victory in itself. Unfortunately, he seems to be doing a good job at that.

What sources are folks here using to get a signal from the Russian side? I've only really seen things via western media.
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You could be right.
But his taking of those other places was not perceived as a direct threat to Europe the way taking Ukraine represents a more existential threat to Eastern Europe, the Baltic and Scandinavia, and NATO.

I have been following former ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul for insights . Still a western viewpoint but one w some experience.
He says Putin has changed.

J
 


The Ukrainian men filling sandbags to protect a bridge in Kyiv from the upcoming Russian attack state it perfectly:
"We are waiting for you (the West) to wake up."
"We don't need sanctions. The Russians laugh at your sanctions."
"You will be next."
 
fkajwg said:
You could be right.
But his taking of those other places was not perceived as a direct threat to Europe the way taking Ukraine represents a more existential threat to Eastern Europe, the Baltic and Scandinavia, and NATO.

I have been following former ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul for insights . Still a western viewpoint but one w some experience.
He says Putin has changed.

J
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I too enjoy listening to McFaul as a source of information. His history regarding Russia is extensive and as far as I can tell - balanced... One in the positions he has had requires the ability to understand who he is dealing with at multiple levels.

Putin has isolated himself quite a bit the last couple of years. Just look at the meetings he has had where all participants are a long ways away. Even a recent meeting with his 'inner circle' had all of them 60'+ away from him. Pandemic related? Most likely. Other reasons? time will tell...
 
jaredoconnor said:
I don't know what these comments about Putin's irrationality are based on. It seems like projection, to me. He has already taken Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Is there any reason to think that will be reversed? I'm not aware of any. In many ways, it seems like he has already succeeded.

It's hard for me to get an accurate picture of Putin's agenda, because I'm only being exposed to our side of the story. As far as I can tell, he wanted Ukraine to be part of Russia, or at least a very close ally. Given the history of the countries, I can't imagine this would be for any reason other than resources. I think sentimental factors are being hugely overstated. The same goes for China and Taiwan.

My guess is that there was more progress on the NATO side than we are hearing about and that has created a sense of urgency. A hostile takeover has to be the least productive way to achieve his goals. It seems like it's just a land grab, at this point. In that case, any geographical area that he can seed with Russian apologists is a victory in itself. Unfortunately, he seems to be doing a good job at that.

What sources are folks here using to get a signal from the Russian side? I've only really seen things via western media.
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Putin isn't irrational when compared against his own past behavior, he's just "Vlad being Vlad." but he is highly irrational when compared with Western standards of diplomacy, public discourse and negotiations, especially in the last speech he gave. And many Putin observers are saying that speech was pretty over the top, even for him. I agree with them.

It's about resources, a giant FU to NATO plus valuable ports for his navy and many other things. Ukraine is ridiculously rich in food production, soil fertility and minerals among other things. It would be quite a coup for him to put Ukraine in his back pocket.

He said Ukraine "isn't a real country" and was a "creation of the USSR." He's either clueless about history (doubtful), or deliberately tossing out propaganda (highly likely) to sway his citizens to the course he's set upon. Ukraine is actually much older than Russia, and Kyiv was a thriving city and major cultural center for hundreds of years before Moscow was founded.

As to hoping for an internal hit job on him, that could happen if he decides that Western military hardware given to Ukraine is an attack on Russia and he hits a NATO member country. Like he targets a U.S. base or hits Germany for sending the grenade launchers. If we joined the fight and rained holy hell down on him, I could see one of his inner circle taking him out. Of course, the entire world would be drawn into the conflict and we'd be in a world war. And that is a horrifying thought. But it's not an impossibility. Not today anyway. Russians have also had decades of deprivation and they don't want those days to return either.
 
RCF said:
I too enjoy listening to McFaul as a source of information. His history regarding Russia is extensive and as far as I can tell - balanced... One in the positions he has had requires the ability to understand who he is dealing with at multiple levels.

Putin has isolated himself quite a bit the last couple of years. Just look at the meetings he has had where all participants are a long ways away. Even a recent meeting with his 'inner circle' had all of them 60'+ away from him. Pandemic related? Most likely. Other reasons? time will tell...
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Im sure he doesn't want to get jabbed with an umbrella point filled with ricin, or nerve agent, or plutonium . I wonder if he has food tasters?
 
@Mingo - well said. TYVM. A couple of things to consider. Putin is 69 years old. He is a avid historian and studies it a lot. There were several things in his last speech that were historically incorrect and he knew better, or at least he should of. That is, in part, why people are wondering about his mental faculties.
 
FontinalisFin said:
Im sure he doesn't want to get jabbed with an umbrella point filled with ricin, or nerve agent, or plutonium . I wonder if he has food tasters?
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Polonium 210, 138 day half life, was what poisoned Litvinenko. Plutonium's half life is much longer (thousands of years at minimum except for Pu-241 at 14 years), so a lot more would be needed to cause radiation poisoning.
 
My unsolicited opinion; arm NATO to the fukn' teeth (we ran the USSR into bankruptcy and dissolution before, and with their piddling little Russian GDP and mediocre cash reserves we can do it again), proceed with severe sanctions and economic isolation, and forget about SALT agreements (who actually knows how well any of it's being followed anyway?). MAD works. All will be very expensive for America and Europe, but we'll never deal with this scumbag through any sort of appeasement.
 
cody- said:
Polonium 210, 138 day half life, was what poisoned Litvinenko. Plutonium's half life is much longer (thousands of years at minimum except for Pu-241 at 14 years), so a lot more would be needed to cause radiation poisoning.
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Right, I don't remember the details only that radiation poisoning is one of their specialities
 
RCF said:
@Mingo - well said. TYVM. A couple of things to consider. Putin is 69 years old. He is a avid historian and studies it a lot. There were several things in his last speech that were historically incorrect and he knew better, or at least he should of. That is, in part, why people are wondering about his mental faculties.
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agreed....and there was an emotional outburst bordering on rage that he usually keeps under wraps. Is he losing it? Or just working his propaganda trapline to project an image of strong leadership?

I guess it doesn't matter really.....he did what he did and Europe is at war again. Fuck him. World sentiment is against him and he doesn't care. He's never cared. He's never worried about the polls or reelection. He lusts for power and the money it brings him.
 
Putin's assets are frozen. It will be interesting to observe the personal sanctions imposed on Putin as they are applied. At least it is not only the US imposing the personal sanction. Several NATO nations imposed that sanction before we did. Based on some discussion I have heard, it would mean it is illegal to accept any money from him. Does that mean his beautiful yacht would not be able to get any fuel except from Russia? Such a shame... LOL

White House Press Secretary Psaki indicated it would/could include a travel ban. That would add to his isolation from the countries that support it.

www.reuters.com

EU sanctions target Russia's economy, elites and Putin himself

The European Union has imposed two packages of sanctions on Russia for launching an "unprecedented and unprovoked military attack against Ukraine".
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Very interesting times the world is in right now...
 
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-St. Helena.png
Let's all give Putin a one way ticket to St. Helena where he can rule alone in Napoleon's former residence. Some people are too dangerous to hold power.
 
Reading that the Russians are being slowed by lack of supplies. They figured it'd be over in 72 hours, based on their intelligence, and therefore there's going to be a lag time wise before more fuel and food arrive.
Also seeing a number of NATO planes in the area, refuelers and spy planes it seems, likely giving Ukraine’s government a heads up on movement, numbers, and types of Russian activity.

The other thing thats interesting and different is NATO is openly and without any attempt at being covert, sending weapons that will be used to kill Russian soldiers.

This isn't how things typically go here, it's not typically advertised like this. The message seems to be...fuck you...

Putin has lost a lot already when countries openly telegraph their intentions to send weapons to kill his soldiers.

This doesn't look like weakness from the west, now does it ?
 
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