NFR Ukraine...Little Did I Know

[Dustin Chromers]

If Putin doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO, then Russia shouldn't have posed such a constant and now realized threat to Ukraine. In hindsight, perhaps NATO should have admitted Ukraine years ago. Putin wants NATO dissolved. Dumb shit, if Russia were not such a threat, NATO wouldn't need to exist.

Putin is interested in restoring the Soviet Union to it's former glory. His roots are KGB and steeped in the cold war tea. Men of his type never feel more useful, more righteous, and more glorious than in times of high tension or war. This is the arena he feels most comfortable to gladiate in. He is a student of history and studies foreign policy as well as the personalities of his friends and foes as a former profiler with the KGB. He is a master at intimidation and the mind games of bluff and surprise war, cold or hot, is made up of. I only hope an alliance with China isn't imminent and we are provoked into an already waiting gambit on a staged chessboard where once a move is initiated the momentum solves itself into checkmate. Putin is a serious man who is seriously capable with few means. We should not have announced our strategy before an invasion. Perhaps sanctions were appropriate when he began rattling the sabre. Putin does not take the United States seriously as he once did.

 

[Mossback]

Putin loots his own country for his personal enrichment, poisons his opposition, and has been actively working to destabilize other countries and their economies for years. This isn't even in question here, he's a dictator who will kill his own people to maintain power, with no respect for the basic human rights of Russian citizens or anyone else.
He's a total piece of garbage.

 

[Seaalki]

Putin is interested in restoring the Soviet Union to it's former glory. His roots are KGB and steeped in the cold war tea. Men of his type never feel more useful, more righteous, and more glorious than in times of high tension or war. This is the arena he feels most comfortable to gladiate in. He is a student of history and studies foreign policy as well as the personalities of his friends and foes as a former profiler with the KGB. He is a master at intimidation and the mind games of bluff and surprise war, cold or hot, is made up of. I only hope an alliance with China isn't imminent and we are provoked into an already waiting gambit on a staged chessboard where once a move is initiated the momentum solves itself into checkmate. Putin is a serious man who is seriously capable with few means. We should not have announced our strategy before an invasion. Perhaps sanctions were appropriate when he began rattling the sabre. Putin does not take the United States seriously as he once did.

Not humanities first rodeo or war nor it's last; https://suntzusaid.com/

 

[Mingo]

My heart bleeds for Ukraine today. The body count is already piling up. Imagine waking up to air raid sirens and the knowledge that SeaTac or Portland International or any other airport near you was under the control of an enemy invader, and that hundreds or thousands of our soldiers had been killed? That's their reality today. Some of them could be my relatives.

I'm part Ukrainian. I grew up on the food, the hugs, the music, the laughter and the stories. My 89 year old dad is in tears today, watching the land his grandpa and grandma escaped from being attacked YET AGAIN by Russia. There is a long ugly history of annexation, brutal takeovers, occupations and starvation of the Ukrainian people by Russia. Read the book 'The Harvest of Sorrow' for a sobering reality check of the history between the two countries and the brutality of Stalin's murderous dictatorship.

There are some excellent comments in this thread, but I'm compelled to correct something I see repeated here and other places.

There is no "the Ukraine." It is called Ukraine, an independent nation. Calling it "the Ukraine" would be the same as saying "the Ireland" or "the Sweden."

The term "the Ukraine" was deliberately coined by a corrupt pro-Stalin, pro-commie propagandist named Walter Duranty who was the Moscow bureau chief for the New York Times following the Bolshevik victory. He coined that phrase to minimize and deliberately manipulate public perception of Ukraine as being merely a "region of Russia." He did this to help his buddy Stalin. He also kept all mention of the Russian starvation of millions of Ukrainians out of the public eye. He (and several of his cohorts in the foreign press) said nothing while millions of human beings were deliberately starved to death by Stalin.

Russia has attacked and occupied Ukraine many times in the past and Putin flatly said he sees it as his turf. So here we go again...

 

[Dustin Chromers]

I fail to see the strategic value of capturing a radioactive contamination zone. How weird.

I'm going to levy a theory. I'm in no way attempting to pass this theory off as fact because I don't know for certain.

If I had to guess I would say strategic and symbolic significance. The first is geography and the fact you now have a looming spectre of ecological disaster with the possibility of radioactive dust being spread far and wide if hit by ordinance or intentionally released and blamed on a counterattack. The situation is ripe for one of Putin's narratives and a lever of fear. Therefore perhaps a safe place to stage as nobody wants to be the guy that hits the hot stuff.

The second is that it has been mused that the disaster there was the real reason the Soviet Union fell. Putin's predecessors have even voiced this. The disaster brought about cooperation with the West in ways policy did not.

 

[Anonymous member 148]

Predators sense and pray on weakness. Putin knows we are weak right now and probably won't do anything about the invasion besides 'talk and sanctions.' He's been planning this a long time, stockpiling cash reserves, just waiting for the right moment on the world stage. Dictators are feeling their oats. Taiwan is next.

 

[Mingo]

Taiwan is next.

Now that the Olympics are over, I'm afraid you're probably correct.

It amazes me how many people are oblivious to the massive joint military exercises that Russia and China recently conducted. The thought of military cooperation and planning between those two should be front page news but it received little attention. People were too busy eating Doritos and playing video games.

 

[Dustin Chromers]

Now that the Olympics are over, I'm afraid you're probably correct.

It amazes me how many people are oblivious to the massive joint military exercises that Russia and China recently conducted. The thought of military cooperation and planning between those two should be front page news but it received little attention. People were too busy eating Doritos and playing video games.

It's almost as if the two greatest geopolitical threats we face have been out and proud about an alliance and their threat while our media and leaders have basically ignored it, buried it, or distracted from it. Imagine that.

 

[Mukman]

Agree re China/Russia, but this is what the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi said on Saturday:

“The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of any country should be respected and safeguarded,” he said. “Ukraine is no exception.”

While I think Xi is every bit as imperious as Putin, he doesn't appear to be as rash (Spratley islands, Uighers, and comments re Taiwan notwithstanding). I'm looking everywhere for cooler heads.

 

[jaredoconnor]

Biden refused to comment on China, when questioned about an hour ago. That was concerning. I can only assume that means some bad shit is going on.

On a separate note, all the usual suspects are using this crisis for political point scoring. They should be condemned, even if they're on your team. Now is a time for solidarity.

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

Predators sense and pray on weakness. Putin knows we are weak right now and probably won't do anything about the invasion besides 'talk and sanctions.' He's been planning this a long time, stockpiling cash reserves, just waiting for the right moment on the world stage. Dictators are feeling their oats. Taiwan is next.

I think this is a mistaken belief. To say that we are "weak" ignores reality. The US is still the most powerful nation on earth, and tied with NATO, Russia is small potatoes with a weak economy, and to be honest, a half-baked military (don't forget, they also could not tame Afghanistan and their supply lines were nothing). Mistaking not threatening military action for the invasion of Ukraine as some sign of perceived weakness could be a serious mistake and lead to the sort of miscalculation no one wants. It was wise to not threaten any military response; this can hopefully be contained to Ukraine, as awful as that is. Any incursion into a NATO member (Lithuania, Estonia, Poland?) because of perceived "weakness" will trigger Article 5, then all bets are off. The biggest mistake that can be made is to underestimate your enemy. Let us all hope no such thing happens.

 

[Mingo]

Agree re China/Russia, but this is what the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi said on Saturday:

“The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of any country should be respected and safeguarded,” he said. “Ukraine is no exception.”

While I think Xi is every bit as imperious as Putin, he doesn't appear to be as rash (Spratley islands, Uighers, and comments re Taiwan notwithstanding). I'm looking everywhere for cooler heads.

Yi's comments need to be taken in the full context of their long-term view of Taiwan AS a part of China. Their "one China Policy", as they call it. They say Ukraine is different, because in their view it is a separate country. They never recognized Taiwan as anything but one of their offshore islands. And they will take it back, and that could start another war in the Pacific if we and our allies join the fight to defend Taiwan.

Hong Kong was supposed to remain independent too. Look how long that lasted.....

 

[Anonymous member 148]

Yi's comments need to be taken in the full context of their long-term view of Taiwan AS a part of China. Their "one China Policy", as they call it. They say Ukraine is different, because in their view it is a separate country. They never recognized Taiwan as anything but one of their offshore islands. And they will take it back, and that could start another war in the Pacific if we and our allies join the fight to defend Taiwan.

Hong Kong was supposed to remain independent too. Look how long that lasted.....

Russia views Ukraine as China views Taiwan, if Russia pulls this off then its open season. Does Taiwan have f-35s? Or just our 4th gen aircraft? I want to see those stolen tech j20s blown from the sky.

 

[Mossback]

Lots of drivel being posted about supposed weakness, but what I don't see is any alternative suggestions, unsurprisingly.

Who wants the US or NATO to mobilize and gear up for a ground war against the Russians in Ukraine ? Ready to foot the bill for a protracted ground war halfway across the world ?
In a country where wearing a mask is the ultimate imposition for some, how will rationed fuel and food go over ?
Ready for body bags, gold star families, daily lists of Americans killed in Ukraine ?

Sure, let's have that war...That'll surely show the strength you somehow feel is lacking here, nothing like a good old fashioned ground war in Europe to show 'em who's boss, right ?

Anyone....Bueller ?

Careful what you wish for...

 

[Dustin Chromers]

I think this is a mistaken belief. To say that we are "weak" ignores reality. The US is still the most powerful nation on earth, and tied with NATO, Russia is small potatoes with a weak economy, and to be honest, a half-baked military (don't forget, they also could not tame Afghanistan and their supply lines were nothing). Mistaking not threatening military action for the invasion of Ukraine as some sign of perceived weakness could be a serious mistake and lead to the sort of miscalculation no one wants. It was wise to not threaten any military response; this can hopefully be contained to Ukraine, as awful as that is. Any incursion into a NATO member (Lithuania, Estonia, Poland?) because of perceived "weakness" will trigger Article 5, then all bets are off. The biggest mistake that can be made is to underestimate your enemy. Let us all hope no such thing happens.

Lots of drivel being posted about supposed weakness, but what I don't see is any alternative suggestions, unsurprisingly.

Who wants the US or NATO to mobilize and gear up for a ground war against the Russians in Ukraine ? Ready to foot the bill for a protracted ground war halfway across the world ?
In a country where wearing a mask is the ultimate imposition for some, how will rationed fuel and food go over ?
Ready for body bags, gold star families, daily lists of Americans killed in Ukraine ?

Sure, let's have that war...That'll surely show the strength you somehow feel is lacking here, nothing like a good old fashioned ground war in Europe to show 'em who's boss, right ?

Anyone....Bueller ?

Careful what you wish for...

Revealing what sanctions you will invoke if someone does something is a weak strategy. It's a basic blunder. Putin knows this and is well tested in such matters. It was a failed opportunity and a failed test. I don't want American military forces abroad or war anymore than any sane person but you have to leverage what you are willing to invoke and not divulge your plan to your enemy prematurely or you may end up inadvertantly escalating things. A tool misused is a tool you can no longer use.

Agree re China/Russia, but this is what the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi said on Saturday:

“The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of any country should be respected and safeguarded,” he said. “Ukraine is no exception.”

While I think Xi is every bit as imperious as Putin, he doesn't appear to be as rash (Spratley islands, Uighers, and comments re Taiwan notwithstanding). I'm looking everywhere for cooler heads.

Lip service and nothing more from China. Why would anyone believe a known liar even if the lie is of some comfort? Putin isn't reckless, he's calculated. Him being perceived as reckless suits a shadow warrior spy type just fine. I was incorrect when I used the analogy of chess. Putin isn't playing chess nor is any spy. Chess has rules and a finite number of pieces. In Putin's world the more brazen, the more deceptive, and the more rules broken the more successful you are. There is no end game other than securing power and influence as deeply and as long as possible while making the rest of the world less safe and less stable.

 

[Merle]

... My brain tells me we need to be blasting the hell out of the Russian troops but I don't know if that's the wise thing to do or not....

I have had the same initial gut reaction, and have been trying to temper it as I watch things unfold on the news.

As an American, knowing we have the most superior military in the world, it's really hard to not want to step in and squash things when you see a bully in action. Especially after reading up on the history of the USSR and what was done to the Ukrainian people during the Holodomor. But yeah when the bully is unhinged and has access to nukes then the smart play is often not to follow initial gut reactions. Kind of like not stepping out of your car to engage with a crazy road rager, even though you'd love to put him in his place.

Still, when I saw the long line of Russian tanks rolling down that two lane highway in eastern Ukraine, on a very visceral level I thought about how sweet it would be to see a squadron of A-10 Warthogs just light them up.



andy

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

Revealing what sanctions you will invoke if someone does something is a weak strategy. It's a basic blunder. Putin knows this and is well tested in such matters. It was a failed opportunity and a failed test. I don't want American military forces abroad or war anymore than any sane person but you have to leverage what you are willing to invoke and not divulge your plan to your enemy prematurely or you may end up inadvertantly escalating things. A tool misused is a tool you can no longer use.

Again, I believe a mistaken belief. Putin already knew without it being stated that sanctions would result. This did not take any brain power. Telling what sort of sanctions without being specific, which they weren't, was an effort to possibly, however unlikely, to head off the invasion, let him know there would be a cost. Putin also telegraphed his moves, the US has been warning of an impending invasion for several weeks. There are no surprises here, which is probably a good thing, surprises lead to mistakes and miscalculations, something we cannot afford.

 

[Mossback]

Revealing what sanctions you will invoke if someone does something is a weak strategy. It's a basic blunder. Putin knows this and is well tested in such matters. It was a failed opportunity and a failed test. I don't want American military forces abroad or war anymore than any sane person but you have to leverage what you are willing to invoke and not divulge your plan to your enemy prematurely or you may end up inadvertantly escalating things. A tool misused is a tool you can no longer use.

Disagree

All despotic regimes are well aware of what sanctions may be used against them. They research them, it's not a secret, they've watched sanctions used before, they know what they are. Putin is simply betting that NATO and the US won't respond militarily with boots on the ground, air support for Ukraine, or naval blockades on Russian ports.
There are no 'secret sanctions' Russia is unaware of possibly being levied by the international community. The tools are the tools, they're not secret, and are well established and known of.

 

[Dustin Chromers]

Again, I believe a mistaken belief. Putin already knew without it being stated that sanctions would result. This did not take any brain power. Telling what sort of sanctions without being specific, which they weren't, was an effort to possibly, however unlikely, to head off the invasion, let him know there would be a cost. Putin also telegraphed his moves, the US has been warning of an impending invasion for several weeks. There are no surprises here, which is probably a good thing, surprises lead to mistakes and miscalculations, something we cannot afford.

Disagree

All despotic regimes are well aware of what sanctions may be used against them. They research them, it's not a secret, they've watched sanctions used before, they know what they are. Putin is simply betting that NATO and the US won't respond militarily with boots on the ground, air support for Ukraine, or naval blockades on Russian ports.
There are no 'secret sanctions' Russia is unaware of possibly being levied by the international community. The tools are the tools, they're not secret, and are well established and known of.

Agree to disagree with all due respect. The announcement made Putin absolutely secure that military force was off the table.

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

... which was pretty well known, pretty certain he would have made the same calculation regardless. All of this is gamed out on both sides.