Salmon Forecasts

Stonedfish

Known Grizzler-hater of triploids, humpies & ND
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Stonedfish

Known Grizzler-hater of triploids, humpies & ND
Forum Supporter

Smalma

Life of the Party
SF-
WDFW's 2023 wild coho forecast has been available for a couple weeks now. While it may be possible that those forecasts maybe different than the co-manager forecasts though they have gone through at least one review.
The PS 2023 forecast is 291,167 up a bit from the 2022 forecast of 266,855 and the 2021 forecast of 245,889.
Other forecasts that may interest you -
Snohomish 2023 forecast is 102,024 up from the 2022 forecast of 64,218 and the 2021 forecast of 60,000.
Hood Canal 2023 forecast of 23,895 between the 2022 forecast of 21,108 and the 2021 forecast of 30,304.
Quest 2023 forecast of 11,056 between the 2022 forecast of 18,160 and the 2021 forecast of 13,160.

If interested in other stocks or details of the wild smolt production and marine survival estimates by area the whole document can be found with a search for "2023 wild coho forecasts".

Curt
 

Stonedfish

Known Grizzler-hater of triploids, humpies & ND
Forum Supporter
SF-
WDFW's 2023 wild coho forecast has been available for a couple weeks now. While it may be possible that those forecasts maybe different than the co-manager forecasts though they have gone through at least one review.
The PS 2023 forecast is 291,167 up a bit from the 2022 forecast of 266,855 and the 2021 forecast of 245,889.
Other forecasts that may interest you -
Snohomish 2023 forecast is 102,024 up from the 2022 forecast of 64,218 and the 2021 forecast of 60,000.
Hood Canal 2023 forecast of 23,895 between the 2022 forecast of 21,108 and the 2021 forecast of 30,304.
Quest 2023 forecast of 11,056 between the 2022 forecast of 18,160 and the 2021 forecast of 13,160.

If interested in other stocks or details of the wild smolt production and marine survival estimates by area the whole document can be found with a search for "2023 wild coho forecasts".

Curt

Thanks Curt.
I appreciate the numbers on the wild forecasts.
Since I can’t retain wild fish where I like to fish, it will be interesting what the hatchery numbers look like since I can release those onto my bbq.
SF
 

Smalma

Life of the Party
SF -
I afraid that we will have to wait until March for the hatchery forecasts.

Given that the recent status of the wild Snohomish coho has been what has limited your ability to harvest some wild coho and maybe as important the season length of your fishery in MA 9 I thought you might have been a little more excited to see those Snohomish wild numbers. But maybe I miss read your interests.

Curt
 

Stonedfish

Known Grizzler-hater of triploids, humpies & ND
Forum Supporter
SF -
I afraid that we will have to wait until March for the hatchery forecasts.

Given that the recent status of the wild Snohomish coho has been what has limited your ability to harvest some wild coho and maybe as important the season length of your fishery in MA 9 I thought you might have been a little more excited to see those Snohomish wild numbers. But maybe I miss read your interests.

Curt

Curt,
No, I’m very happy to see the Snohomish wild coho numbers going in the right direction.
Between them and the Stilly chinook I very much understand how those two stocks along with some other factors are limiting our fishing opportunities.
SF
 

DimeBrite

Saltwater fly fisherman
SF -
I afraid that we will have to wait until March for the hatchery forecasts.

Given that the recent status of the wild Snohomish coho has been what has limited your ability to harvest some wild coho and maybe as important the season length of your fishery in MA 9 I thought you might have been a little more excited to see those Snohomish wild numbers. But maybe I miss read your interests.

Curt
With the >100,000 wild coho return forecast the MA9 salmon season should extend into October again. Release of wild coho in MA9 should still be in place. Hopefully the salmon hatcheries actually clipped adipose fins in 2021.
 

Smalma

Life of the Party
DimeBrite-
I agree with this forecast Traditionally a MA 9 coho season to mid-October should be in play.

The forecast is large enough to also allow harvest of wild Snohomish coho. I'm sure that will be an item of discussion in NOF, how much harvest and when and where.

One potential issue is the State now is accounting for the Chinook impacts during coho seasons which could lead to interesting discussion how best to use chinook impacts of limiting stocks.

Curt
 

DimeBrite

Saltwater fly fisherman
DimeBrite-
I agree with this forecast Traditionally a MA 9 coho season to mid-October should be in play.

The forecast is large enough to also allow harvest of wild Snohomish coho. I'm sure that will be an item of discussion in NOF, how much harvest and when and where.

One potential issue is the State now is accounting for the Chinook impacts during coho seasons which could lead to interesting discussion how best to use chinook impacts of limiting stocks.

Curt
Fortunately adult chinook are far up the rivers by October.
 

speedbird

Life of the Party
Forum Supporter
Really happy to see Snohomish Wild Coho rebound, I am hoping it leads to an opener on the mainstem Snohomish, and more fishing opportunity in Area 9. I would take a longer season in Area 9 over wild fish retention. This is selfish but the wild fish closure keeps pressure concentrated on area 10, and gives great catch and release fishing in area 9 with less boats on the water
 

speedbird

Life of the Party
Forum Supporter
Fortunately adult chinook are far up the rivers by October.
Are Puget Sound Chinook considered Summer or Fall run fish? To my knowledge all the Puget Sound “Falls” are out of the salt before Summer ends. But I am unsure about their genotypes
 

Smalma

Life of the Party
Puget Sound rivers have a mixture of stocks.
The Nooksack has two spring stocks (North Fork and South Fork).
The Skagit has 3 spring stocks (Cascade, Suiattle, and upper Sauk), 2 summer stocks (upper Skagit and lower Sauk), and a fall stock (middle Skagit).
The Stillaguamish has a summer stock (North Fork) and a fall Stock (South Fork).
The Snohomish has a summer stock (Skykomish) and a fall stock (Snoqualmie).
With the exception of the White River spring (Puyallup basin) and the attempt to start a spring stock in the Skokomish SF) the rest of the Puget Sound stocks would be considered falls.

However even when the adults are left the sound there are lots of sub-adults (often referred as blackmouth) in Puget Sound that are encountered in various fisheries and as a result those wild encounters would be of ESA concern.

Curt
 

Stonedfish

Known Grizzler-hater of triploids, humpies & ND
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johnnyboy

Steelhead
Most forecast looks better than I expected. But the Chum forecasts for the North Sound are absolutely depressing. Only a small fraction of the run we had just 20 or so years ago.
 

speedbird

Life of the Party
Forum Supporter
Sad to see chum numbers not improving. Good to see the healthy coho returns on most systems. Disappointing the Snohomish is turning up short of the 100k we were hoping for
 
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Stonedfish

Known Grizzler-hater of triploids, humpies & ND
Forum Supporter
Sad to see chum numbers not improving. Good to see the healthy coho returns on most systems

If I recall correctly, they started to do chums at the Wallace hatchery a few years ago to try and kickstart up the returning numbers.
SF
 

RRSmith

Life of the Party
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