NOF 2022

Stonedfish

Stonedfish

Known Pluviophile
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That time of year again.
Likely the same dog and pony show as the previous years, but some info for those that might be interested or wish to comment.
Looks like Puget Sound forecasts will out March 4th.
SF

wdfw.wa.gov

2026 North of Falcon public meeting schedule

Photo by Brooke Orizaba
wdfw.wa.gov wdfw.wa.gov
 
Wonder if they'll try and use the overblown coho predictions to try and sell license again
 
Looks like the forecasts are out. Looks similar to last year, maybe slightly better in some spots such as the Skagit and Nooksack but nothing too spectacular.
 
Well that was a fun breakout room in the PS rec. today.

One thing that I noticed is that WDFW repeatedly stated 224,000 chinook were coming back this year, roughly 25K of which were wild. The NW Sportsman article repeats that info.

However, the final chinook forecast spreadsheet posted to WDFW's website shows 250,000 chinook, roughly 31K of which were wild. It bugged me that WDFW can't provide a consistent message in a meeting specifically held to go over initial forecasts. What's the true number?
 

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SeaRunner said:
Well that was a fun breakout room in the PS rec. today.

One thing that I noticed is that WDFW repeatedly stated 224,000 chinook were coming back this year, roughly 25K of which were wild. The NW Sportsman article repeats that info.

However, the final chinook forecast spreadsheet posted to WDFW's website shows 250,000 chinook, roughly 31K of which were wild. It bugged me that WDFW can't provide a consistent message in a meeting specifically held to go over initial forecasts. What's the true number?
Click to expand...

I had appointment so couldn’t listen into the whole presentation.
Any chance you have the PS coho chart similar to the PS chinook chart you posted that breaks out each system?
Thanks
SF
 
Searunner-
Suspect the differences you see in the PS Chinook forecast is that the 224,000 number is for the summer/fall runs while the 250,000 numbers include the spring Chinook (Nooksack, White, and Skagit).

For the PS recreational fishers the important forecast number that received virtually no attention was the Stillaguamish Chinook. The combined hatchery/wild number was 890 below the low abundance threshold (LAT) of 900. WDFW repeated a couple times the co-managers indent is follow the direction in their 2022 draft plan (being submitted to the feds for adoption for 2023/2024). That plan calls for additional guidelines when the forecast is below the LAT. Read that to mean lower allowable impacts (less fishing in Southern US). While it is not certain that some sort of additional guidelines will be used I would not hold my breath.

Curt
 
SF-
Much of the coho forecast increase is from North Sound; but more importantly the key forecasts for your central sound fishing are such that the 2022 seasons likely will be much like last year.

As was seen last in MA 7 summer fishery there is increasing emphasis being placed on better accounting for incidental Chinook impacts in all fisheries with more rigorous in-season monitoring and all that means. The sh*tshow on how to allocate limited Stillaguamish Chinook impacts and the season setting process just got more intense.

Curt
 
Smalma said:
Searunner-
Suspect the differences you see in the PS Chinook forecast is that the 224,000 number is for the summer/fall runs while the 250,000 numbers include the spring Chinook (Nooksack, White, and Skagit).

For the PS recreational fishers the important forecast number that received virtually no attention was the Stillaguamish Chinook. The combined hatchery/wild number was 890 below the low abundance threshold (LAT) of 900. WDFW repeated a couple times the co-managers indent is follow the direction in their 2022 draft plan (being submitted to the feds for adoption for 2023/2024). That plan calls for additional guidelines when the forecast is below the LAT. Read that to mean lower allowable impacts (less fishing in Southern US). While it is not certain that some sort of additional guidelines will be used I would not hold my breath.

Curt
Click to expand...

I reviewed the numbers more last night and came to the same conclusion as your speculation on the difference in total numbers. I thought it was poorly communicated in the presentation and it becomes confusing when the agency switches between "fall chinook forecasts" and "Puget sound chinook" forecasts in subsequent slides. It also causes me to question some of the numbers being presented. The presentation stated this years PS wild chinook forecast is 36% below the recent 10 year average of 40,001. If that recent 10 year average is measuring just PS fall chinook then i believe the math may be right, but if it is measuring all PS wild chinook then I don't believe it is.

I admit my gripes above may just be picking pepper out of the fly shit given the Stillaguamish forecast which again will be the main issue. I was listening while working so missed some of the discussion but I thought the agency highlighted that issue. It will be interesting to see what "additional guidelines" will be implemented for a forecast 10 fish below the LAT. The "additional guidelines" are not well defined in the new plan, and it is unclear how the current 9% rate equates to the old rate given that the new plan states the rates stated in that plan are not directly comparable to prior rates used.
 
Looks like the ocean coho fishing is going to be lights out again. Last year was the best coho fishing out of Westport that some charter captains had seen in 50 years. Forecast is over 100k higher for this season. Part of me hopes to get in on that, as it was absolutely amazing last year, but part of me hopes not because if I'm fishing coho during the peak that likely means the tuna are not there yet in numbers.
 
I first thought it was a fluke having caught one literally at the side of the boat a few years ago. Now I know it's commonplace. Whenever the dummies follow up their hooked-up friend, dap a few flies in the water. They will 100% go for it every time. It's amazing.
 
Nick Clayton said:
Looks like the ocean coho fishing is going to be lights out again. Last year was the best coho fishing out of Westport that some charter captains had seen in 50 years. Forecast is over 100k higher for this season. Part of me hopes to get in on that, as it was absolutely amazing last year, but part of me hopes not because if I'm fishing coho during the peak that likely means the tuna are not there yet in numbers.
Click to expand...

Wish I could have fished the ocean back in the 1970's... I wonder if recent memories sway recollections since Columbia River returns were higher around twenty years ago. Glad to see the rebound though. Neah Bay should be on fire.
 
Chris Bellows said:
Wish I could have fished the ocean back in the 1970's... I wonder if recent memories sway recollections since Columbia River returns were higher around twenty years ago. Glad to see the rebound though. Neah Bay should be on fire.
Click to expand...


Had that exact conversation with Kevin Vasereno, captain of the Gold Rush. He has been working charters out of Westport for 53 years and he said it was the best he's ever seen. He said his biggest reason for saying that is that back in the day they didn't have to release wilds. When it was great back then they'd just keep every fish till limited. This last season he said they were getting 40 or 44 hatchery fish for a limit just as easy, while also having to release every wild and there was a lot.

The reports and vids I saw were amazing. Guys were just going out doing any goofy shit they could think of and catching more coho than they could believe. One buddy went out and was just slapping unweighted hoochies into the water wirh gear rods at the side of the boat and limited doing that very quickly. The video was hilarious.

Personally I can't say if it was as good as "back in the day", but Kevin wasn't the only long time charter captain I spoke to who claimed it was the best he'd ever seen. I was so bummed not to get in on it, but I was offshore every day. The one day we had a chance to try for em, with fly fishers on board, was literally the day that they dried up. Totally missed it.
 
Nick Clayton said:
Had that exact conversation with Kevin Vasereno, captain of the Gold Rush. He has been working charters out of Westport for 53 years and he said it was the best he's ever seen. He said his biggest reason for saying that is that back in the day they didn't have to release wilds. When it was great back then they'd just keep every fish till limited. This last season he said they were getting 40 or 44 hatchery fish for a limit just as easy, while also having to release every wild and there was a lot.

The reports and vids I saw were amazing. Guys were just going out doing any goofy shit they could think of and catching more coho than they could believe. One buddy went out and was just slapping unweighted hoochies into the water wirh gear rods at the side of the boat and limited doing that very quickly. The video was hilarious.

Personally I can't say if it was as good as "back in the day", but Kevin wasn't the only long time charter captain I spoke to who claimed it was the best he'd ever seen. I was so bummed not to get in on it, but I was offshore every day. The one day we had a chance to try for em, with fly fishers on board, was literally the day that they dried up. Totally missed it.
Click to expand...
I honestly think we need to do away with the "clipped" only rule out there. I think we'd kill a lot less fish if we kept our first 2 vs sorting through 20-40 wilds on a fish that does not handle catch and release very well at all.
 
Evan B said:
I honestly think we need to do away with the "clipped" only rule out there. I think we'd kill a lot less fish if we kept our first 2 vs sorting through 20-40 wilds on a fish that does not handle catch and release very well at all.
Click to expand...


Very much agreed
 
Nick Clayton said:
Had that exact conversation with Kevin Vasereno, captain of the Gold Rush. He has been working charters out of Westport for 53 years and he said it was the best he's ever seen. He said his biggest reason for saying that is that back in the day they didn't have to release wilds. When it was great back then they'd just keep every fish till limited. This last season he said they were getting 40 or 44 hatchery fish for a limit just as easy, while also having to release every wild and there was a lot.

The reports and vids I saw were amazing. Guys were just going out doing any goofy shit they could think of and catching more coho than they could believe. One buddy went out and was just slapping unweighted hoochies into the water wirh gear rods at the side of the boat and limited doing that very quickly. The video was hilarious.

Personally I can't say if it was as good as "back in the day", but Kevin wasn't the only long time charter captain I spoke to who claimed it was the best he'd ever seen. I was so bummed not to get in on it, but I was offshore every day. The one day we had a chance to try for em, with fly fishers on board, was literally the day that they dried up. Totally missed it.
Click to expand...
That makes sense that the past 20+ years have had wild release. For a non-fly charter with more than 6 guests that would be a pain in the ass.
 
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