Dry Year, Hot Water: What the 2026 PNW Snowpack Could Mean for Us PNW Anglers.
It rained last December. A lot. If you were anywhere near a river, you remember; the Yakima went into historic flood, slides closed roads, and we ran a 10-page PNW Flood Watch thread trying to keep tabs on it all. So it's a little disorienting to find ourselves, five months later, staring down what looks a lot like another snow drought summer.
The short version: the rain came, but the snow didn't (or at least it didn't stick around). And for those of us that need water here in the PNW (I'm sure that applies to most of us), that's the part that matters. Our snowpack acts as a reservoir of sorts that feeds our creeks and rivers as they slowly melt through the warmer months. Without that, things get increasingly grim.
The Numbers
By early March, Washington's statewide snowpack was at 50% of normal. Oregon's was at 29%; second-lowest on record, beaten only by 2015*. A late-March dump helped at higher elevations, but by April 1, most Washington basins still sat at 35-60% of median, with the central Cascades around I-90 among the worst. Oregon's Deschutes Basin was at 28% of median. The Klamath Basin hit 4% of normal by late April.
*I (Evan) was an avid summer steelhead fisherman for years leading up to 2015: That drought knocked out my longtime favorite fisheries in the Columbia system, and they never really bounced back. I fear for this becoming the norm as it seems a few more years like this could finish the job.
Even where reservoirs are full, and Yakima Basin reservoirs were at 129% of average on May 1 thanks to December's rain, it doesn't fix the problem. Only about 15% of the Yakima Basin actually drains into a reservoir. Snowpack feeds the rest of the basin and there isn't enough this year.
What This Looks Like on the Water
Low snowpack changes the season in three ways: runoff comes earlier, rivers drop sooner, and water temperatures climb faster. Those who prefer fishing moving water get their seasons cut short. Stillwaters aren't immune either as many inlets bringing cooler waters stop providing relief.
Earlier runoff is the brief silver lining. Many freestones will drop into shape weeks ahead of schedule; the upper Yakima and the Methow may be fishable in early June. Hatches will likely run early too: salmonflies, golden stones, and PMDs all ahead of the calendar. I personally saw multiple salmonflies near Sisters and Bend on May 2nd when I was in town on non-fishing business. MUCH earlier than usual.
Earlier and lower base flows is the catch. The water you'd normally have in July and August won't be there. The Bureau of Reclamation forecast has Yakima Basin junior water rights getting just 52% of their allotment; the basin's fourth straight drought year. Klamath Project irrigators got about half their typical supply, with 40,000+ acres expected to be idled. Twelve of Oregon's 36 counties are now under drought emergency. Tailwaters will be more buffered than freestones, but expect August to look like September usually does, and September to get downright skeletal.
Warmer water, sooner is the one that actually kills fish. Trout metabolic stress doubles roughly every 18°F, and once water temps push past 68°F, trout and other salmonid catch-and-release mortality climbs hard. Hit 73°F for three days running and you're in hoot-owl territory. ODFW and WDFW have been quicker to impose restrictions in recent dry summers, and 2026 will likely see more of the same, possibly earlier than last year.
Even if laws and emergency regulations don't limit your fishing, know when you need to self-regulate. Finding other fisheries or activities to occupy your time is essential during these situations.
Regional Triage
The Yakima: fourth consecutive drought year, near-record low snow, basin that depends on snowpack for 60% of its demand. Fish it early, expect hoot owl conditions by mid-July.
Central and southern Oregon is the hardest hit region in the PNW. The Deschutes, Crooked, John Day, and Klamath are all looking at a tough summer. Lower Deschutes (tailwater below Pelton-Round Butte) is more stable than the upper. The John Day will warm out early.
Eastern Washington and the Methow: bad at low and middle elevations but holding closer to normal at the highest stations. Your alpine lakes and high creeks may fish surprisingly well. Anything below ~4,500 ft, less so.
Olympic Peninsula rivers run on rain and groundwater more than snowmelt, but August steelhead conditions could get sketchy on the smaller systems.
Northern Cascades and BC are the relative bright spot. Some stations running 70–95% of normal. Not great, but workable. The Columbia River itself should remain running at a good flow.
Stillwaters are largely unaffected in the short term. If your usual summer plans involve a freestone that warms out, this is the year to lean into your lake game. But like previously stated - check your specific piece of water and know its nuances. Many stillwater fisheries become too warm for day time fishing even on a normal year.
What You Can Actually Do
A few things worth re-committing to this year:
Carry a thermometer. The most undervalued piece of gear in your kit. 68°F means think hard about whether to keep fishing. 70°F, find another river. 73°F+, you're contributing to mortality even on perfect releases.
Fish early, leave early. Hoot owl yourself if your local agency hasn't. Be off the water by noon on hot days. Trout shut down in the heat anyway.
Land fish fast, keep them wet, pinch your barbs. None of this is new, but it matters double in a year like this.
Have a Plan B. Tailwaters, high lakes and creeks, coastal and saltwater fisheries become genuinely better options when the freestones go off the rails. If you've never fished cutthroat in the salt or chased smallmouth in the Columbia system, this might be the year. Or, join the growing number of us that have come to appreciate the majestic carp (and the more elusive capr).
The Bigger Picture
Washington Ecology estimates that by the 2050s, the state will see snow droughts roughly seven out of every ten years. The "low snowpack year" is no longer the exception; it's becoming the average. The seasons we grew up planning around are increasingly the lucky ones rather than the default.
Plan around the water conditions, not the calendar. Carry your thermometer. Know when to walk away. And maybe go fish a damn lake. You might be surprised. If we want to enjoy the outdoors the way we like enjoying it, we need to become adaptable and resilient: Much like the mighty carp (or capr).
Snowpack and water supply data from the USDA NRCS, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Washington Department of Ecology, Oregon Water Resources Department, the UW Office of the Washington State Climatologist, and NIDIS drought.gov May 2026 updates.
Live river conditions at pnwfishing.net/river-conditions.
