NFR AI - How It Will Affect Jobs In The Next 5 years

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My belief is that AI is in its infancy. So are diagnoses.. For example:

My wife was recently diagnosed with a large mass in her colon that was malignant based on a CT scan. OMG! CANCER!

A LONG, LONG wait ( 5 days) until her colonoscopy confirmed it was a minor inflammation of a known condition of diverticulitis and was not cancer.
 
My belief is that AI is in its infancy. So are diagnoses.. For example:

My wife was recently diagnosed with a large mass in her colon that was malignant based on a CT scan. OMG! CANCER!

A LONG, LONG wait ( 5 days) until her colonoscopy confirmed it was a minor inflammation of a known condition of diverticulitis and was not cancer.
You’re correct, very much in it’s infancy. It has come a long ways in a short time, yet people’s comments seem to expect it to be perfect out of the gate. If one looks at any developing technology over the past 100 years, it takes time to where people forget what it was like in its infancy.
20 years ago, did anyone expect hear pumps able to heat a house below 32°?
 


In the year 2025, if income is still alive
If employment can survive, they may find
In the year 3035
Ain't gonna need to produce no proof, conceive no lie
Everything you think, do and say
Is in the AI video you consumed today
In the year 4045
You ain't gonna need your speech, won't need your scribe
You won't find a task to eschew
AI's gonna be doing all that for you
In the year 5055
Your grey matter hangin' limp at your sides
Your cerebrum got nothin' to do
Some AI machine's making memes for you
In the year 6065
You won't need no husband, won't need no wife
You'll design your AI companion, pick your AI kids too
From the bottom of an infinite cyber stew
In the year 7510
If AI Elon's a coming, it oughta be consious by then
Maybe it will look around the matrix and say
Guess it's time for AI Travers to slay
In the year 8510
AI Bezos is gonna shake its shiny head
It'll either say I'm pleased where profits have been
Or tear it down, and remarry again
In the year 9595
I'm kinda wonderin' if the trades are gonna be alive
Blue collar has taken everything AI robotics can give
And AI bossman ain't put back nothing
Now it's been ten thousand years
Elder fly anglers have cried a billion tears
For what, AI thralls never knew, now man's servitude is through
But through eternal foresight, the intoxication of AI gaslight
So very far away, maybe it's only a free payday

In the year 2025, if employment is still alive
If income can survive, they may find...
 
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AI is equivalent to letting the cat out of the bag. Fortunately, or unfortunately , it is more like to herding cats. The cat(s) are out of the bag(s). Time to accept it...
 
You are one of the few non-medical people who understand this. Insurance cos are never your friend! We will always have a healthcare crisis with insurance co. in the game.
Health insurance and hospitals used to generally be both nonprofit. Then regulations slowly changed allowing profit. But you’re correct, insurance is not our friend because of profits, same concept that Human Resources is not for the employees as much as protection for the company/government.


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You are one of the few non-medical people who understand this. Insurance cos are never your friend! We will always have a healthcare crisis with insurance co. in the game.
Lots of people understand it. Its simple supply and demand economics
Insurance creates an overabundance of "cash" available for medical expenses and also increases demand for medical services medical services being a finite resource have increased prices due to deep pockets and high demand.

If we want more affordable Healthcare we need to increase the supply and or decrease the demand.
The best solution i think is to decrease demand by encouraging people to choose to live healthier life styles ( easier said than done)
 
Health insurance and hospitals used to generally be both nonprofit. Then regulations slowly changed allowing profit. But you’re correct, insurance is not our friend because of profits, same concept that Human Resources is not for the employees as much as protection for the company/government.


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You know… the other side of the coin is, the complete disaster of medical billing transparency. People being billed at different rates for the same procedure. Hospital billing insurance for $10k yet settle for $5k. It’s an absolute unethical mess.
 
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This is an interesting take on a theory about AI Model Collapse and the potential parallel to the collapse of traditional human culture, norms and reality. Scary to think about.

 
From someone with three decades of experience in acute care hospitals
-.For profit hospitals almost always have a higher morbidity rate, which is the percentage of patients who became ill/infected during a hospital stay with something they didn't come in with, such as staph. That is a reflection of staffing levels, training and investment in proper cleaning, which should be non-stop in an acute care environment.
-For profits must return a profit to shareholders. Non profits, invariably a 501(c)(3), are required to reinvest any profits back into the operation itself.
-The Chargemaster, an itemized list of which a hospital charges for all services and products, is negotiated between the hospital/hospital chain and MediCare/health insurance companies. Settled contracts = discounted prices for MediCare/insurance companies. When a private pay patient goes to a non-profit, they can negotiate to pay the Medicare/insurance companies rate. For profit-hospitals will charge a private pay patient full boat with zero discounts, and are quick to use agencies to chase down patient bill payments.

In a country that spends hundreds of billions on defense with much of it nothing more than pork barrel projects ginned up by lobbyists on behalf of the 'defense' industry, healthcare should be a right, not a burden. Making the healthcare sector non-profit only would be the first step in making health care more affordable for US taxpayers.
As to costs of running a hospital, they are astounding. Running 24/7 at full capacity, Pay/Pension/VT/OT obligations, servicing construction and medical equipment debt, etc, etc, the larger hospitals daily burn rate can be 1M a day.
 
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This is an interesting take on a theory about AI Model Collapse and the potential parallel to the collapse of traditional human culture, norms and reality. Scary to think about.

That was interesting, thanks!
 
This is an interesting take on a theory about AI Model Collapse and the potential parallel to the collapse of traditional human culture, norms and reality. Scary to think about.

Fascinating! A real brain teaser, or twister, perhaps. Caused me to have many neurons firing. My first thought about AI generated input got me to thinking if Bayesian statistics are flawed, in that the initial input is based on human observations, but the many iterations of analysis use random generations of those initial inputs . . . - any way, is model collapse the logical outcome?

Next, I was irked by the authors remarks about liberal political policies being divorced from reality inputs. As if conservative policies aren't; how about a little balance here? Any objective observer realizes that there are both liberal and conservative "bubbles" that each can exist only within their own versions of reality. But this wasn't too distracting, just impossible to not notice. It's not hard to see that both suffer from reduced fidelity data inputs, and now we know that leads inevitably to a decline in human fertility.

And the last section regarding the "Experience Machine" immediately made me think of the "Feelies" in Aldous Huxley's Brave New World. Synthesized inputs to create the desired human reality, producing predictable and desired, or approved, human outputs.

There was a lot to think about packed in that piece. And it did nothing to increase my confidence in a future with AI.
 
Health insurance and hospitals used to generally be both nonprofit. Then regulations slowly changed allowing profit. But you’re correct, insurance is not our friend because of profits, same concept that Human Resources is not for the employees as much as protection for the company/government.


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I retired after 23 years of working for a privately owned, "not-for profit" healthplan that is still a private, "not-for profit". Our mission statement began with "Take the tyranny out of healthcare"... In casual conversations with acquaintences when I did mention who I worked for, I almost universally I heard, "Oh they really took care of us when [husband, child... needed expensive healthcare urgently]".

Employees are paid a living wage but nothing like Boeing and many other large corporations. Like other companies they did away with the defined benefits (pension) plan, fortunately after I was vested but my wife and I made the decision to contribute to the 401K even though we were a one income family, so my wife could be at home to raise our son. Both of us grew up in lower income families so we lived frugally, yet felt "comfortable", and are still Thankful. The company contributed towards employee healthcare but the employee "contribution" was higher and the plans had higher copays than what many; possibly most of our corporate members had to pay. The company was required by regulations to have a number of month's worth of reserves to pay the current rate of claims with ZERO dollars coming in. The current and projected upcoming annual operating budget was "absolute". The fiscal year was January through December, and that often meant EOY was draconian for workforce reductions.
I thought IT was incredibly brutal.
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and being a "survivor" felt like this for me
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I don't miss that at all!​

A major focus of my final 7 years in IT was particularly aimed at keeping physical and virtual IT software-hardware assets expenditures as low as possible for members through efficient use of the existing budget, as well as regulatory compliance. Some managers and directors were not happy with me but I was a direct report to the VP of Operations who appreciated my function, ethics, and results.

One of the strategies for the not-for profits to compete with Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) owned for-profits that might be able to absorb an operating loss is "plan affilliation"; a type of merger, to gain economy of scale for overhead costs like IT, HR, facilities management... while keeping each plan's core business tailored and focused on the local member markets. Being in one of those shared functions adds to the stress I mentioned above.

As @Fourbtgait 's quoted article says:
It is an "old fashioned noble-minded" business model. Unfortunately it isn't perfect. I was and remain proud I could be a part of it.
 
Fascinating! A real brain teaser, or twister, perhaps. Caused me to have many neurons firing. My first thought about AI generated input got me to thinking if Bayesian statistics are flawed, in that the initial input is based on human observations, but the many iterations of analysis use random generations of those initial inputs . . . - any way, is model collapse the logical outcome?

Next, I was irked by the authors remarks about liberal political policies being divorced from reality inputs. As if conservative policies aren't; how about a little balance here?
the authors brief on himself - "A happy little concerned citizen and humble meme farmer who is quite tired of the BS present in modern politics and the intentional violence and evil committed by the progressive left. I have an MS in Anthropology." ... He could have added "also prone to massive hyperbole, pre-established deductive reasoning, and an adoration of made-up words."
 
This is an interesting take on a theory about AI Model Collapse and the potential parallel to the collapse of traditional human culture, norms and reality. Scary to think about.

That's a sarcastic way of saying they're playing a convoluted amd expensive version of the telephone game. Enjoyed every minute of it

Edit: Also, I think this is exactly what Dr. Gebru was trying to prevent before googles fired her.
 
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